Oscar night: picks and predictions

Greetings from sunny, warm New York! I'm looking forward to watching the Oscars in normal hours this year rather than staying up all night in a crowded BBC studio. Here are my picks and predictions for tonight...

PICTURE
Will probably win: Avatar
More-deserving upsets: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Up in the Air
Should win: A Serious Man

DIRECTOR
Will win/should win: Kathryn Bigelow
Less-deserving upset: James Cameron

FOREIGN FILM
Will win: The Secret in Their Eyes
Should win: A Prophet
Possible upset: Ajami

ACTRESS
Will win: Sandra Bullock
Deserving upset: Meryl Streep
Should win: Gabourey Sidibe

ACTOR
Will win/should win: Jeff Bridges
Deserving upset: Colin Firth
Dark horse: George Clooney

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will win/should win: Mo'Nique

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win/should win: Christoph Waltz

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: Inglourious Basterds
Should win: A Serious Man
Deserving upset: The Hurt Locker

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Up in the Air
Should win: In the Loop
Deserving upset: Precious