Out on a limb: Oscar picks

Frankly, I know nothing, but I still do this every year, based on my own preferences and the ubiquitous buzz that's reaching a crescendo this weekend. Here's who I think will win the Oscars on Sunday, and who I want to win...

PICTURE
Will win: The King's Speech
Might win: The Social Network
Dark horse: True Grit
Should win: Inception


ACTOR
Will/should win: Colin Firth


ACTRESS
Will/should win: Annette Bening
Might win: Natalie Portman


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will/should win: Christian Bale
Might win: Geoffrey Rush


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will/should win: Melissa Leo
Might win: Helena Bonham Carter


DIRECTING
Will win: The King's Speech
Might win: The Social Network
Should win: Inception


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will win: The King's Speech
Should win: The Kids Are All Right


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: The Social Network


ANIMATED FEATURE
Will/should win: Toy Story 3
Surprise upset: How to Train Your Dragon


FEATURE DOCUMENTARY
Will win: Waste Land
Might win: Inside Job
Dark horse: Restrepo
Should win: Exit Through the Gift Shop


FOREIGN FILM
Will win: In a Better World
Might win: Biutiful


ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The King's Speech
Might win: the Social Network
Should win: 127 Hours


ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Toy Story 3
Might win: 127 Hours


CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will/should win: True Grit
Might win: The Social Network


EDITING
Will win: The Social Network
Should win: 127 Hours


ART DIRECTION
Will win: The King's Speech
Might/should win: Inception


COSTUMES
Will/should win: I Am Love
Might win: Alice in Wonderland


MAKE-UP
Will/should win: Barney's Version
Might win: The Wolfman


SOUND MIXING and SOUND EDITING
Will/should win: Inception


SHORTS - pure guesswork
Live Action: God of Love
Animated: Day & Night
Documentary: Killing in the Name