Out on a limb: Oscar picks and predictions

This year's Oscar race is the most wide open competition in years - it's hard to remember when there were so many categories that could go one of two (or even three) ways, and this year only Best Actress is a true lock.

I'll be watching the ceremony Sunday night in London with a gang of critics and friends in a pub that's staying open all night for us. Of course, the ceremony kicks off at 1am British time and finishes around 5am, so Monday isn't going to be too terribly coherent for me! But I plan to live-tweet right through the red carpet and the ceremony.

Below are the ways I think the wind is blowing this year. I will be hoping for upsets and surprises, as always. I should also admit that I hope Gravity only wins in the craft categories, where it belongs. The film is astonishing technical genius, but let's be honest: the script makes it the least of the nine Best Picture nominees.

Picture
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
Dark horse/should win: American Hustle

Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could/should win: Steve McQueen

Actress
Will/should win: Cate Blanchett
Dark horse: Amy Adams

Actor
Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could/should win: Chiewtel Ejiofor
Dark horse: Leonardo DiCaprio

Supporting Actress
Will/should win: Lupita Nyong'o
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting Actor
Will/should win: Jared Leto
Could win: Barkhad Abdi

Original Screenplay
Will/should win: American Hustle
Could win: Her

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could/should win: Philomena

Foreign-language Film
Will win: The Great Beauty
Could/should win: The Broken Circle Breakdown

Documentary
Will win: Twenty Feet From Stardom
Could/should win: The Act of Killing

Animated Feature
Will win: Frozen
Could/should win: The Wind Rises

Score
Will win: Gravity
Should win: Her or Philomena

Cinematography/Film Editing/Effects/Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
Will/should win: Gravity

Production Design/Costumes
Will win: The Great Gatsby
Should win: American Hustle