Oscar picks & predictions: Out on a limb

It's that time of year when I try to imagine what the Academy will do on Sunday, while holding on to my personal hopes. This year's awards season has been the least predictable in memory, with the top prizes leading up to Oscar night scattered all over the place: there's no clear consensus winner in any category. And my track record for predictions is rather spotty. Still, there are inklings about who Ampas voters are likely to choose. And as always, I will be cheering any upsets and surprises, while hoping the producers take some risks in the ceremony itself to make it more fun to watch...

PICTURE

Will win: Roma
Should win: BlacKkKlansman
Dark horses: The Favourite or Green Book

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: RBG
Should win: Free Solo

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Will win: Roma
Should win: Cold War
Dark horse: Capernaum

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should win: Isle Of Dogs

DIRECTOR

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Should win: Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War
Dark horse: Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will / should win: The Favourite - Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Dark horse: First Reformed - Paul Schrader

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: BlacKkKlansman - Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk - Barry Jenkins

ACTRESS

Will / should win: Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Possible life-achievement award: Glenn Close - The Wife

ACTOR

Will win: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Should win: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Dark horse: Christian Bale - Vice

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will / should win: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Dark horses: Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Should win: Richard E Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will / should win: The Favourite - Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

COSTUME DESIGN

Will / should win: The Favourite - Sandy Powell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: BlacKkKlansman - Terence Blanchard
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk - Nicholas Britell

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: Shallow - A Star Is Born
Should win: When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Roma - Alfonso Cuaron
Should win: Cold War - Lukasz Zal

FILM EDITING

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody - John Ottman
Should win: The Favourite - Yorgos Mavropsaridis

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will win: Vice
Should win: Border

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will / should win: First Man

SOUND EDITING

Will / should win: A Quiet Place

SOUND MIXING

Will win: First Man
Should win: Roma