Out on a limb: Oscar picks 2015

Sunday night's ceremony looks like it could feature a few big upsets (hopefully). And a new host in Neil Patrick Harris also means that the show itself will be less predictable. Apart from the acting categories, several races seem too close to call this year, which always makes the ceremony more fun to watch. My groans will be loudest if Birdman wins either film or actor, and my biggest cheer will be if anything other than Big Hero 6 wins animated feature.

I'll be watching the ceremony at the official Ampas Oscar party in London this year - it starts at 11pm and goes until 5am, shortly after Best Picture is announced. Then I can go home and take a long nap!

Here are my choices and predictions - I doubt I'll do as well as last year, when I only missed one...

PICTURE
Will/should win: Boyhood
Could win: Birdman
Dark horse: American Sniper

DIRECTING
Will win: Alejandro G Inarritu - Birdman
Could/should win: Richard Linklater - Boyhood

ACTOR
Will/should win: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Could win: Michael Keaton - Birdman
Dark horse: Bradley Cooper - American Sniper

ACTRESS
Will/should win: Julianne Moore - Still Alice

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Should win: Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will/should win: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: Ida
Should/could win: Leviathan

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: Big Hero 6
Could win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Should win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will/should win: Citizenfour
Could win: Virunga

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: The Imitation Game - Graham Moore
Could win: American Sniper - Jason Hall
Should win: Inherent Vice - Paul Thomas Anderson

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness
Could win: Birdman - Alejandro G Inarritu, et al

PRODUCTION DESIGN / COSTUMES 
Will/should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

MAKEUP
Will win: Foxcatcher
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Guardians of the Galaxy

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will/should win: Johann Johannsson - The Theory of Everything
Could win: Alexandre Desplat - The Grand Budapest Hotel

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Glory - Selma
Should win: Everything Is Awesome - The Lego Movie

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Birdman - Emmanuel Lubezki
Could win: Mr Turner - Dick Pope
Should win: Ida - Ryszard Lenczewski, Lukasz Zal

SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING
Will/should win: American Sniper

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: Interstellar
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

FILM EDITING
Will/should win: Boyhood
Could win: Whiplash
Dark horse: American Sniper

Critical Week: Postcard from La-la Land

In rainy Los Angeles, I've been able to catch up with several awards-season contenders at Oscar-consideration screenings around the city. The highlight was a raucously enjoyable screening of Into the Woods at the Writers Guild, including a spontaneous mid-film applause break after the show-stopping princely duet Agony. With an up-for-it all-star cast (Anna Kendrick is the film's soul, Chris Pine is the scene-stealer, Meryl Streep [above] gets the big numbers), the film is pure joy - then turns satisfyingly serious for the post-happy ending final act. Side note: the stage musical was my first-ever Broadway show, on a visit to New York back in the late-80s. 

The other highlight was a screening of Selma at the Directors Guild, followed by a memorable Q&A with director Ava DuVernay and lead actor David Oyelowo, both of whom deserve serious awards recognition for a remarkably grounded, resonant, relevant drama about three momentous months in the life of Martin Luther King. There were at least four standing ovations! Also this week: Bradley Cooper is excellent as a real-life military marksman in Clint Eastwood's grippingly stark American Sniper, and Mark Wahlberg is solid as an irritatingly unlikable guy in Rupert Wyatt's remake of The Gambler.

This coming week, before I return to London this weekend, I am planning to catch Angelina Jolie's inspirational true drama Unbroken, Tim Burton's painting-scandal biopic Big Eyes, and Peter Jackson's final Tolkien film The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies. Then back in London I'll have one week to see the rest of this year's contenders before voting deadlines in the four awards I participate in: London Critics' Circle, Online Film Critics Society, Fipresci and Galeca's Dorian Awards.