Oscar picks & predictions: Out on a limb

It's that time of year when I try to imagine what the Academy will do on Sunday, while holding on to my personal hopes. This year's awards season has been the least predictable in memory, with the top prizes leading up to Oscar night scattered all over the place: there's no clear consensus winner in any category. And my track record for predictions is rather spotty. Still, there are inklings about who Ampas voters are likely to choose. And as always, I will be cheering any upsets and surprises, while hoping the producers take some risks in the ceremony itself to make it more fun to watch...

PICTURE

Will win: Roma
Should win: BlacKkKlansman
Dark horses: The Favourite or Green Book

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: RBG
Should win: Free Solo

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Will win: Roma
Should win: Cold War
Dark horse: Capernaum

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should win: Isle Of Dogs

DIRECTOR

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Should win: Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War
Dark horse: Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will / should win: The Favourite - Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Dark horse: First Reformed - Paul Schrader

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: BlacKkKlansman - Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk - Barry Jenkins

ACTRESS

Will / should win: Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Possible life-achievement award: Glenn Close - The Wife

ACTOR

Will win: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Should win: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Dark horse: Christian Bale - Vice

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will / should win: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Dark horses: Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Should win: Richard E Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will / should win: The Favourite - Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

COSTUME DESIGN

Will / should win: The Favourite - Sandy Powell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: BlacKkKlansman - Terence Blanchard
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk - Nicholas Britell

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: Shallow - A Star Is Born
Should win: When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Roma - Alfonso Cuaron
Should win: Cold War - Lukasz Zal

FILM EDITING

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody - John Ottman
Should win: The Favourite - Yorgos Mavropsaridis

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will win: Vice
Should win: Border

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will / should win: First Man

SOUND EDITING

Will / should win: A Quiet Place

SOUND MIXING

Will win: First Man
Should win: Roma

The Best of 2018: 38th Shadows Awards

These are films I saw in 2018, regardless of their release dates. All were seen by public audiences in cinemas - either on general release, specialty screenings or at festivals, during the past 12 months. These were especially difficult lists to narrow down!

A far more extensive version of this is on the website at 38TH SHADOWS AWARDS, for those who can't get enough of this sort of thing: longer lists, many more categories, trivia-o-rama.

My top film this year is not only a bracingly ripping true story, but it captures and confronts the current cultural mood with skill and invention. It's also a wonderful return to fighting form for filmmaker Spike Lee, who last won my best film prize in 1989 for Do the Right Thing.

BEST FILM:

1. BlacKkKlansman (Spike Lee)
2. Cold War (Pawel Pawlikowski)
3. The Favourite (Yorgos Lanthimos)
4. If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
5. Generation Wealth (Lauren Greenfield)
6. Capernaum (Nadine Labaki)
7. We the Animals (Jeremiah Zagar)
8. Colette (Wash Westmoreland)
9. Shoplifters (Hirokazu Koreeda)
10. Sofia (Meryem Benm'Barek)

DIRECTOR:

1. Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
2. Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
3. Ari Aster (Hereditary)
4. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
5. Nadine Labaki (Capernaum)
6. Bart Layton (American Animals)
7. Chloe Zhao (The Rider)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
9. Jeremiah Zagar (We the Animals)
10. Meryem Benm'Barek (Sofia)

WRITER:

1. Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
2. Pawel Pawlikowski, Janusz Glowacki (Cold War)
3. Richard Glatzer, Wash Westmoreland, Rebecca Lenkiewicz (Colette)
4. Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara (The Favourite)
5. Daniel Kokotajlo (Apostasy)
6. Bart Layton (American Animals)
7. Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
8. Rafael Casal, Daveed Diggs (Blindspotting)
9. Alex Garland (Annihilation)
10. Madeleine Sami, Jackie van Beek (The Breaker Upperers)

ACTRESS:

1. Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
2. Joanna Kulig (Cold War)
3. Emily Blunt (A Quiet Place, Mary Poppins Returns)
4. Agnes Jaoui (I Got Life!)
5. Eva Melander (Border)
6. Toni Collette (Hereditary, Hearts Beat Loud, Madame)
7. Anna Brun (The Heiresses)
8. Natalie Portman (Vox Lux, Annihilation)
9. Claire Foy (Unsane, First Man)
10. Rosamund Pike (A Private War, Beirut, Entebbe)

ACTOR:

1. Michael B Jordan (Black Panther, Creed II, Fahrenheit 451)
2. Brady Landreau (The Rider)
3. Rupert Everett (The Happy Prince)
4. Tomasz Kot (Cold War)
5. Marcello Fonte (Dogman)
6. John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman, Monsters and Men)
7. Zain Al Rafeea (Capernaum)
8. Steve Carell (Beautiful Boy, Vice, Welcome to Marwen)
9. Alex Lawther (Freak Show, Ghost Stories)
10. Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
2. Florence Pugh (Outlaw King)
3. Millicent Simmonds (A Quiet Place)
4. Sarah Perles (Sofia)
5. Cynthia Erivo (Widows, Bad Times at the El Royale)
6. Sissy Spacek (The Old Man & the Gun)
7. Danai Gurira (Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War)
8. Sakura Ando (Shoplifters)
9. Molly Wright (Apostasy)
10. Elizabeth Debicki (Widows, The Cloverfield Paradox)

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Brian Tyree Henry (Widows, If Beale Street Could Talk, White Boy Rick, Hotel Artemis)
2. Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Outlaw King)
3. Daniel Kaluuya (Black Panther, Widows)
4. Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
5. Nicholas Hoult (The Favourite)
6. Jonah Hill (Don't Worry, He Won't Get Far on Foot)
7. Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
8. Noah Jupe (A Quiet Place, That Good Night)
9. Barry Keoghan (Black '47, American Animals)
10. Jude Law (Vox Lux, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald)

WORST FILM:

1. Mile 22 (Peter Berg)
2. The Strangers: Prey at Night (Johannes Roberts)
3. Truth or Dare (Jeff Wadlow)
4. Midnight Sun (Scott Speer)
5. Fifty Shades Freed (James Foley)
6. Life Itself (Dan Fogelman)
7. Strangeways Here We Come (Chris Green)
8. The 15:17 to Paris (Clint Eastwood)
9. Venom (Ruben Fleischer)
10. Action Point (Tim Kirkby)

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N O N - F I L M   D I V I S I O N

TV SERIES:

1. Pose (FX)
2. Schitt's Creek (CBN)
3. Fleabag (BBC)
4. Everything Sucks! (Netflix)
5. Killing Eve (BBC)
6. The Marvelous Mrs Maisel (Prime)
7. Patrick Melrose (Showtime)
8. A Very English Scandal (BBC)
9. Atlanta (FX)
10. Trust (FX)

SINGLE:

1. This Is America (Childish Gambino)
2. Nothing Breaks Like a Heart (Mark Ronson & Miley Cyrus)
3. One Kiss (Calvin Harris & Dua Lipa)
4. Shallow (Lady Gaga & Bradley Cooper)
5. Promises (Sam Smith & Calvin Harris)
6. Happier (Marshmello & Bastille)
7. Make Me Feel (Janelle Monae)
8. Better Now (Post Malone)
9. Ruin My Life (Zara Larsson)
10. This Is Me (Keala Settle)

Critical Week: Catch the wave

Amid a flurry of last-minute awards-consideration screenings (my first voting deadline is Friday night), I'm still covering movies that are coming into the cinemas at the moment. This week included two blockbusters, a welcome break from the heavier "prestige films" I've been watching. Carrying on from Justice League, Aquaman is an unabashedly corny romp with cartoonish effects and a simplistic script, but lots of fun. The Transformers prequel Bumblebee is even better, maintaining a nice character focus in between the robot-bashing action. The connection between Hailee Steinfeld and her car/alien is as involving as her relationships with her parents and the cute boy next door.

And then there was the high-powered cast of the Dick Cheney biopic Vice, with Christian Bale, Amy Adams, Steve Carell and Sam Rockwell easily transcending the makeup and prosthetics. The glib script is more problematic. The Coens' The Ballad of Buster Scruggs is a delightful collection of Western shorts, each with great actors and a twist in its tale. Capernaum is a flat-out masterpiece, a Lebanese drama about life on the streets that feels so real that it shakes us to the core. Free Solo is one of the most jaw-dropping docs of the year, following an intrepid climber up an impossible wall of granite. And there was also the generally strong Male Shorts: International V2, a collection of five gay-themed short films exploring intimacy issues (full disclosure: I never saw V1). There were also two film events...

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P R E V I E W
Alita: Battle Angel
Robert Rodriguez and James Cameron's sci-fi action epic was previewed for the press with a collection of about 20 minutes of short scenes and a new trailer, shown to us in Imax 3D with a video intro from Cameron and an in-person Q&A with Rodriguez and producer Jon Landau. The effects are seriously impressive, even if the design work is a little cartoonish - Alita (Rosa Salazar, right) has massive eyes. But it definitely makes me want to see the whole movie when it opens in February.

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E X H I B I T I O N
The Favourite at Kensington Palace
Now here's a brilliant idea: Sandy Powell's insanely clever costumes from the film The Favourite are on display at Kensington Palace until mid-February, set out in the rooms where Queen Anne actually lived. At the press launch this week, it was amazing to be able to walk all the way around these elaborate outfits, marvelling at the stunning textures and layers (and at how tiny Emma Stone is). Meanwhile portraits of royals who lived here are peering down at you from the walls. And one of the story's main events took place right in this very room. Pretty cool. Full information: www.hrp.org.uk

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This coming week, I have more catching up to do, including Steve Carell in Welcome to Marwen, Ian McKellen and Judi Dench in All Is True, Jennifer Aniston in Dumplin', Paul Giamatti in Private Life, the remake of Papillon and the Russian dance drama Polina.

LFF: Do a little dance

The 62nd London Film Festival is wrapping up with a continuing parade of red carpet gala screenings and various celebrity talks and workshops. It's a pretty busy collection of venues from BFI Southbank into Leicester Square and beyond, and this weekend will see a final flurry of activity. Although on Saturday the festival may be upstaged by the People's Vote march, demanding that the British public has a say in Brexit. We'll see how that goes. In the meantime, here are some more highlights...

The Favourite
dir Yorgos Lanthimos; with Olivia Colman, Emma Stone 18/Ire ****
A fiendishly witty script and blazing performances brings this historical piece to riotous life as it delves into the political machinations of the British royal household. Anchored by riveting, awards-worthy lead performances by Olivia Colman, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, the film looks terrific thanks to Yorgos Lanthimos' offbeat direction and Robbie Ryan's inventive cinematography.

If Beale Street Could Talk
dir-scr Barry Jenkins; with KiKi Layne, Stephan James 18/US *****
Barry Jenkins follows up Moonlight with an adaptation of the James Baldwin novel that's both deeply gorgeous and righteously furious. It's a gently romantic drama with a fiercely topical core, so while its staggeringly beautiful filmmaking tantalises our eyes and emotions, the film is also stirring something darker and deeper about the deep-seated injustice in American society... FULL REVIEW >

Assassination Nation
dir-scr Sam Levinson; with Odessa Young, Suki Waterhouse 18/US ***.
Full-speed from the opening shot, this riotously satirical action-horror veers dangerously close to becoming a Purge movie. But it's fiercely present-day, as writer-director Sam Levinson gives the film such a short attention span that split screens are often required to cram everything onto the screen. This makes it a kinetic, relentless thrill ride, even if it at times feels a little too viciously pointed... FULL REVIEW >

The White Crow
dir Ralph Fiennes; with Oleg Ivenko, Adele Exarchopoulos 18/UK ***
This biopic of Rudolf Nureyev is beautifully shot and acted, but it's both too specific and overly fragmented, which makes it difficult to engage with. David Hare's script has an oddly choppy structure that removes all momentum from the plot by jumping unnecessarily between periods, and it glosses over some important elements. Still, Ralph Fiennes' stylish direction keeps it watchable, and the climactic sequence is tensely riveting.

Benjamin
dir-scr Simon Amstell; with Colin Morgan, Phenix Brossard 18/UK ***
With a central character who is deeply annoying, this scruffy British comedy struggles to keep the audience on its side. It meanders through a loose, rather goofy story that continually threatens to erupt into a feel-good romance, but the tone is more bitter than it is sweet. There are plenty of terrific moments to keep the viewer entertained, even if the film never quite engages on any other level.

Shadow
dir Zhang Yimou; with Deng Chao, Sun Li 18/Chn ****
Chinese filmmaker Zhang is back with another staggeringly beautiful historical saga packed with complex characters and a story that twists and turns right to the brilliant final shot. With costumes and settings that are simply stunning, the film has its own distinct visual sensibility, which brings the central themes into focus. It's a powerfully involving tale of love, betrayal, revenge and retribution... FULL REVIEW >

May the Devil Take You
dir-scr Timo Tjahjanto; with Chelsea Islan, Pevita Pearce 18/Ina ***
Riotously grisly, this inventive Indonesian horror plays with a variety of nasty elements that work together to produce a gonzo freak-out. So it's a bit frustrating that the movie doesn't make much sense, and especially that it has no subtext to make it memorable. But as a masterclass in effective ways to stage violent suspense, it's a treat... FULL REVIEW >