Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & predictions

This has been considered one of the most volatile awards seasons in memory, as the buzz has been continually shifting around who might be in line to take home Oscars. There are a couple of sure things for the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday night, but the most important precursors -- Bafta, PGA, SAG -- didn't agree in many categories. Watching the ceremony, I always love an upset, so those will get my loudest cheers. Here's who I think will, should and could win [with winners in bold after the fact]...

PICTURE
Will/should win: Sinners
Could win: One Battle After Another

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will win: Sentimental Value
Could win: It Was Just an Accident
Should win: Sirat
Dark horse: The Secret Agent

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will/should win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could win: Zootopia 2

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could win: Mr Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: Come See Me in the Good Light
Dark horse: The Alabama Solution

ACTRESS
Will/should win: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

ACTOR
Will/should win: Michael B Jordan - Sinners
Could win: Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
Dark horses: Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon / Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will/should win: Amy Madigan - Weapons
Could win: Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another 

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another 
Could win: Delroy Lindo - Sinners 
Should win: Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value  

DIRECTOR
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Could/should win: Ryan Coogler - Sinners

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson
Could/should win: Hamnet - Chloe Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: Sinners - Ryan Coogler
Could win: Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt

CASTING
Will win: Sinners - Francine Maisler
Could/should win: The Secret Agent - Gabriel Domingues
[Winner: One Battle After Another - Cassandra Kulukundis]

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Sinners - Ludwig Goransson
Could win: One Battle After Another - Jonny Greenwood
Should win: Hamnet - Max Richter

ORIGINAL SONG
Will/should win: Golden - KPop Demon Hunters - Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo, Teddy Park

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: One Battle After Another - Michael Bauman
Should win: Sinners - Autumn Durald Arkapaw

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sinners - Michael Shawver
Could/should win: One Battle After Another - Andy Jurgensen

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will/should win: Frankenstein - Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Frankenstein - Kate Hawley
Should win: Sinners - Ruth E Carter

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Frankenstein - Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey
Should win: Kokuho - Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will/should win: Avatar: Fire and Ash - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

SOUND
Will win: Sinners - Chris Welcker, Benjamin A Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, Steve Boeddeker
Could win: F1 - Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A Rizzo, Juan Peralta
Should win: Sirat - Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas

Critical Week: The winner takes it all

Staying up all night in London to watch the Oscars is a tradition for film fans, who are recognisable the next day by their dazed expressions. The show offered several highlights, including that opening number featuring Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo offering soaring renditions of Wizard of Oz, The Wiz and Wicked belters. The night was a terrific celebration of independent filmmaking, with big love for Anora, for which Sean Baker won a record 4 Academy Awards for a single movie. Other memorable elements included Morgan Freeman's beautiful eulogy for Gene Hackman, Isabella Rossellini honouring David Lynch by wearing a blue velvet dress and bringing Laura Dern as her date, and the powerful appearance of the No Other Land filmmakers as they accepted Best Documentary.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
Day of the Fight • Mickey 17
Ernest Cole: Lost & Found
ALL REVIEWS >

I also watched some movies this week, including Robert Pattinson in Bong Joon Ho's Mickey 17, a comical sci-fi adventure that's actually remarkably warm. John Lithgow and Geoffrey Rush are on fine form in creeky Kiwi horror The Rule of Jenny Pen; Bruce LaBruce is back with The Visitor, yet another provocative, nutty and remarkably inventive satire; the hyperactive animated adventure Giants of La Mancha is enjoyably silly. There were two documentaries: Ernest Cole: Lost and Found is a riveting, urgent portrait of the South African photographer, while the artful Riefenstahl tells the story of the controversial German filmmaker. I also saw Wayne McGregor's Deepstaria at Sadler's Wells.

This coming week I'll be watching Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender in Black Bag, Ayo Edebiri in Opus, Brian Cox in The Parenting, the comedy She's the He, Chinese thriller Brief History of a Family and Peacock at the opening of WatchAut, the Austrian Film Festival. There are also two stage shows: Dear Martin at the Arcola Theatre and Drum Tao: The Dream at the Peacock Theatre.

Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & Predictions

Once again, here are how I think things will go Sunday night at the 97th Academy Awards. This is one of the least predictable Oscar races in recent memory, with multiple categories too close to call. And I do love surprises and upsets! A couple of my notes here are risky, but here we are...

PICTURE
Will win: Conclave
Serious contender: Anora
Should win: A Complete Unknown

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will/should win: I'm Still Here
Dark horse: Emilia Perez

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Flow
Should win: The Wild Robot

DOCUMENTARY
Will/should win: No Other Land
Dark horse: Porcelain War

DIRECTING
Will win: Sean Baker - Anora
Serious contender: Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Should win: Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg
Serious contender: Anora - Sean Baker

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Conclave - Peter Straughan
Should win: Sing Sing - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Demi Moore - The Substance
Serious contender: Mikey Madison - Anora
Should win/dark horse: Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Serious contender: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Should win: Colman Domingo - Sing Sing

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will/should win: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Perez

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will/should win: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

FILM EDITING
Will win: Conclave - Nick Emerson
Should win: Anora - Sean Baker

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will/should win: The Brutalist - Lol Crawley

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg
Should win: The Wild Robot - Kris Bowers
Dark horse: Emilia Perez - Clement Ducol and Camille

ORIGINAL SONG
Will/should win: El Mal - Emilia Perez - Clement Ducol, Camille, Jacques Audiard

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will/should win: The Brutalist - Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia
Dark horse: Conclave - Suzie Davies, Cynthia Sleiter
[Winner: Wicked: Part I - Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales]

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Wicked: Part I - Paul Tazewell
Should win: A Complete Unknown - Arianne Phillips

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will/should win: The Substance - Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stephanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will/should win: Dune: Part Two - Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer
Dark horse: Wicked - Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, Paul Corbould

SOUND
Will win: Dune: Part Two - Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill
Should win: The Wild Robot - Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A Rizzo, Leff Lefferts

Critical Week: A star is born

As we approach Oscar weekend, there is always a flurry of activity in trying to predict the possible winners. And it's great that this year's race seems much more up in the air than usual. So I'm rooting for some surprises (and I'll post predictions as usual on Saturday). Meanwhile, there have been more new movies to watch, including the finely produced British biopic Mr Burton, which recounts the early days of Richard Burton (played by Harry Lawtey, above) and his English teacher mentor Philip Burton (Toby Jones). Another British true story is set off the Scottish coast: Last Breath is a taut thriller adaptation of the nailbiting 2019 documentary about deep-sea divers (Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu and Finn Cole) caught in a terrifying situation. 

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
The Last Showgirl • Chang'An
The Summer With Carmen
My Dead Friend Zoe
Superboys of Maleagon
ALL REVIEWS >

Taking on the finale of Homer's Odyssey (and perhaps offering a preview for Christopher Nolan's forthcoming epic), The Return stars Ralph Fiennes as Odysseus, arriving home in Ithaca to find chaos presided over by his faithful wife Penelope (Juliette Binoche). It's rivetingly played and a bit stagey. One of Them Days is a very silly but strongly engaging comedy starring Keke Palmer and SZA as best pals on a momentous day in their Los Angeles neighbourhood. Bruno Dumont's The Empire is a wacky alien invasion thriller disguised as an edgy social satire, set in an offbeat French seaside village. And the Georgian drama April follows a doctor on her illicit rounds with audacious visual and thematic style and bizarrely indulgent flourishes.

This coming week I'll be watching Robert Pattinson in Mickey 17, John Lithgow in The Rule of Jenny Pen, Bruce LaBruce's new film The Visitor, the drama Throuple, the animated adventure Giants of La Mancha and the documentary Riefenstahl.

On the road: Drop the mask

For my first trip out of Britain in two years, I returned to Southern California to visit family and friends. This is where I was when the first lockdown hit in March 2020, so it's been a bit surreal to be here as restrictions are finally lifting - and it's great to catch up with friends and family after such a long gap. Plus of course the fish tacos. 

I've caught up with just one movie here: Matt Reeves' new take on The Batman, starring Robert Pattison as the Dark Knight. It's a big film, bold in its emphasis on deeper emotions rather than the superficial action. But it's also overwhelmed by a cliched visual stylisation that stubbornly refuses to switch on a light or add much in the way of colour. Fans will love the earnestly whispered dialog, while serious filmgoers will roll their eyes.

On Saturday, I visited the Academy Museum with two university friends (an Instagram image set is below). We had a lot of fun with the extensive collection of clips and artefacts, but wondered why the curators so resolutely ignored the history of Hollywood and the studios. There are a variety of spaces that explore aspects of cinematic craft, and a fun space featuring clips and memorabilia from Oscar ceremonies, while sections dedicated to specific films and filmmakers felt more than a little random. I quite liked the Spike Lee exhibit, which centres around his influences. An enormous room dedicated to Almodóvar features lots of gorgeous posters and unidentified clips and nothing else. And it's fun to stand under the massive Moount Rushmore backdrop from North by Northwest. Other highlights include a large area exploring The Wizard of Oz, a collection of iconic movie creatures and a colourful special exhibition tracing the career of Hayao Miyazaki. Oddly, the small room celebrating Citizen Kane is the same size as the room celebrating Real Women Have Curves. And then there was the giftshop, which is completely lacking in souvenirs that feature Oscar, which seems like a seriously missed opportunity (the one Oscar photo op costs an extra $15). Another inexplicable error is omitting a snack bar on the vast open-air observation deck looking out over West Los Angeles. And lighting the exhibits in a way that makes selfies almost impossible. Let's hope they bring someone on board to make this museum something more properly amazing.

Because of The Batman, there are very few other films being released here these days. The only one in cinemas I'd kind of like to see is a guilty pleasure - the Foo Fighters' Studio 666 - but of course no one here wants to see that with me! So I'll probably wait until returning to London to see something new - plus the offerings at BFI Flare, a festival starting on March 16th.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Rich Jack Cline (@ukcline)

Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I've never been particularly good at guessing how Oscar voters will cast their ballots, but I have to give it a go each year anyway. And I've seen all of the films, so at least I'm qualified, eh? That said, here are who I think will win, who I want to win and who could possible upset the field. As usual, I will be hoping for lots of upsets and surprises. There's nothing worse than a predicable Academy Awards ceremony. And thankfully, this year's strangely over-extended awards season and offbeat releasing schedules make it one of the least predictable line-ups in years...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Nomadland
Dark horse: Minari

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: Another Round
Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida?

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Soul
Dark horse: WolfWalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Should win: Collective
Dark horse: Crip Camp

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Dark horse: Minari - Lee Isaac Chung

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Father - Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Should win: Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Dark horse: Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Should win: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Dark horse: Anthony Hopkins - The Father

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Should win: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Dark horse: Amanda Seyfried - Mank

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Dark horse: Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami - Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
Should win: Husavik,  Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Goransson
Dark horse: Io Si (Seen), The Life Ahead - Diane Warren, Laura Pausini

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Joshua James Richards

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sound of Metal - Mikkel EG Nielsen
Should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Mank -  Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson
Should win: Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

SOUND
Will / should win: Sound Of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, Phillip Bladh

Critical Week: Do a little dance

Well, the Oscars have certainly shaken things up in recent years, and Sunday's ceremony brought some wonderful surprises, handing top honours to Bong Joon Ho's masterful film Paradise. If you've seen the film, it's not difficult to understand why it connected so well with voters. By contrast, this week's big screening was the resolutely silly Sonic the Hedgehog, offering Jim Carrey a chance to hilariously play around with both wacky wordplay and full-bodied physicality. It may be slight, but it's an entertaining romp.

There were three films that honed in on a female perspective. The latest adaptation of Jane Austen's Emma stars Anya Taylor-Joy as a young woman manipulating the love lives of those around her. It's snarky and skilfully made, a perfect film for Valentine's Day. Misbehaviour stars Keira Knightley and Jessie Buckley in the terrific true story of women's rights activists who disrupted the Miss World contest in 1970 London. And from Ireland, Rose Plays Julie is a moody, wrenching tale of a young woman (Ann Skelly) who connects with her birth mother (Orla Brady), unearthing a haunting secret.

By extreme contrast, The Misogynists stars Dylan Baker in a rampaging performance as a Trump supporter in a hotel room on election night 2016. It's like a particularly pointed, provocative one-act play, and leaves the audience with plenty to think about. From Germany, Orpheus' Song is a quietly involving romantic drama about two men having a magical (or maybe drunken) experience while on holiday in Greece. And then there was this controversial doc...

---

The Edge of Democracy
dir-scr Petra Costa
with Petra Costa, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Dilma Rousseff, Michel Temer, Jair Bolsonaro, Sergio Moro, Eduardo Cunha, Aecio Neves, Jean Wyllys, Marisa Leticia Lula da Silva
release Br/US/UK 19.Jun.19
19/Brazil Netflix 2h01 ****

I missed this doc when it was released last summer, and wanted to watch it before the Oscars, as it was the only nominated film I hadn't seen. The timing couldn't be more chilling, as the film outlines the step-by-step dismantling of the democratic system in Brazil by politicians who use the judicial system to both cover up corruption and convict opponents with crimes they haven't actually committed, in order to remove them from office. All while the nation's population divides itself into two camps that scream irrationally at each other. The parallels with what happened last week in Washington DC are downright horrifying.

Never attempting impartiality, the film is a first-person account by filmmaker Petra Costa (in a mumbly voiceover that's both eerily dispassionate and often lost in the sound mix). She's expressing her her views on Brazil's political turbulence over the past half-century, as military dictatorship gave way to democracy controlled by the wealthy. Then came Lula, the working-class president who brought fairness to the society, opportunities for the poor, and approval ratings higher than anyone in the world. When he passed the torch to his successor Dilma, the wealthy class suddenly cracked down, twisting an investigation into corruption to set up both Dilma and Lula on charges that were tenuous at best.

Costa pays attention to detail, which makes it clear what actually went on here. Her cameras have terrific access to these people, capturing private moments that are interwoven with the news footage to offer a bigger picture. Sometimes this dense approach a little overwhelming, while her comments about personal connections feel distracting. But even if it's one-sided, there's a bracing sense of fairness how events are recounted with news footage and audio recordings. There's no doubt about what has actually going on.

Which is perhaps what makes the film resonate so sharply. There's Boris Johnson shamelessly lying to the British people (and perhaps to himself) about the true impact of leaving the European Union. There's Donald Trump championing his own victory with a stream of false statistics and manipulative stories even before the Senate voted to ignore their duty to the US Constitution. There's a quote late in this documentary from Ancient Greece, that democracy is only working if the wealthy feel threatened. On the other hand, when the wealthy are threatened, they have the power to suspend democracy. And to brainwash the people into cheering them on.

9.Feb.20 • Sundance

---

This coming week I have screenings of Harrison Ford in a new adaptation of Jack London's The Call of the Wild, Rose Byrne in the comedy Like a Boss, Rosamund Pike in the Marie Curie biopic Radioactive and the psychological thriller You Go to My Head, plus a couple of nights at the theatre, two press launches and an awards ceremony.

Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

And so Oscar night rolls around again, much earlier than usual, capping a crazily truncated awards season. Here are who I think has a good chance of winning, and who I hope will win. My track record isn't great here, and this year there are some big questions lingering, mainly how much love Ampas voters will have for a Korean movie. Parasite is undoubtably the best movie of the year, perhaps the decade. But Oscars rarely actually go to the "best", as they're too busy honouring people they like. As always, I'm hoping for upsets and surprises...

BEST PICTURE

Should win: Parasite
Will win: 1917
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Should win: Pain and Glory
Will win: Parasite

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Should win: Honeyland
Will win: American Factory
Dark horse: For Sama

ANIMATED FEATURE

Should win: I Lost My Body
Will win: Klaus
Dark horse: Missing Link

DIRECTING

Should win: Parasite - Bong Joon Ho
Will win: 1917 - Sam Mendes
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should win: The Two Popes - Anthony McCarten
Will win: Little Women - Greta Gerwig
Dark horse: Jojo Rabbit - Taika Waititi

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should/will win: Parasite - Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Should/will win: Renee Zellweger - Judy

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Should win: Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Should/will win: Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Dark horse: Florence Pugh - Little Women

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Should win: Al Pacino - The Irishman
Will win: Brad Pitt - Once upon a Time ... in Hollywood

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should/will win: 1917 - Roger Deakins

COSTUME DESIGN

Should win: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Arianne Phillips
Will win: Little Women - Jacqueline Durran

FILM EDITING

Should win: The Irishman - Thelma Schoonmaker
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Michael Mccusker & Andrew Buckland
Dark horse: Parasite - Yang Jinmo

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Should win: Judy - Jeremy Woodhead
Will win: Bombshell - Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan & Vivian Baker

ORIGINAL SCORE

Should win: 1917 - Thomas Newman
Will win: Joker - Hildur Gudnadottir
Dark horse: Little Women - Alexandre Desplat
Always a contender: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - John Williams

ORIGINAL SONG

Should/will win: (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again -  Rocketman, Elton John & Bernie Taupin
Dark horse: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4, Randy Newman

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Should win: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
Will win: 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
Dark horse: Parasite - Lee Ha Jun, Cho Won Woo

SOUND EDITING

Should win: 1917 - Oliver Tarney & Rachael Tate
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Donald Sylvester

SOUND MIXING

Should win: 1917 - Mark Taylor & Stuart Wilson
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Paul Massey, David Giammarco & Steven A Morrow

VISUAL EFFECTS

Should win: 1917 - Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler & Dominic Tuohy
Will win: Avengers: Endgame - Dan Deleeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken & Dan Sudick

Critical Week: The big night

Well, the 91st Academy Awards threw a few surprises at us on Sunday, handing out Oscars to popular movies like Green Book, Bohemian Rhapsody and Black Panther while only offering the occasional nod at more ambitious, artistic films. I'm not disparaging the winners, although I would argue that all three are badly compromised projects, but as usual there was far better work in other nominated (and non-nominated) films last year. The show clipped along without a host, offering a few great moments for the award presenters and winners. Amy Poehler, Tina Fey and Maya Rudolph did a superb pastiche of an opening monolog. Spike Lee was triumphant and outspoken in a way few winners dare to be. Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga recreated their intimate chemistry on-stage in a show-stoppingly cool single-take performance. The askance presenters (A-list outsider fans like Serena Williams and Trevor Noah) were a nice touch. And Olivia Colman stole the show with her heartfelt and very funny thank you speech - one of the best in Oscar history.

I've attended one press screening while I've been in Los Angeles, for Michael Winterbottom's dramatic thriller The Wedding Guest. It's a slow-burn starring Dev Patel and Radhika Apte, with a script that gives very little in the way of character or plot detail. But it's involving, and it's nice to see Patel in a shifty role for a change - he's terrific even if his role is underdefined. I also caught up with last summer's action comedy Tag, starring Ed Helms, Jon Hamm and Jeremy Renner, which isn't fine art but is funny and enjoyable for what it is.

Heading back to London, I have a few screenings in the diary, including Brie Larson's entry into the Marvel universe as Captain Marvel, Dean Cain in the fantasy satire 2050, the Icelandic comedy Woman at War, the indie thriller Devil's Path, and the short film compilation Boys on Film 19: No Ordinary Boy.

Oscar picks & predictions: Out on a limb

It's that time of year when I try to imagine what the Academy will do on Sunday, while holding on to my personal hopes. This year's awards season has been the least predictable in memory, with the top prizes leading up to Oscar night scattered all over the place: there's no clear consensus winner in any category. And my track record for predictions is rather spotty. Still, there are inklings about who Ampas voters are likely to choose. And as always, I will be cheering any upsets and surprises, while hoping the producers take some risks in the ceremony itself to make it more fun to watch...

PICTURE

Will win: Roma
Should win: BlacKkKlansman
Dark horses: The Favourite or Green Book

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: RBG
Should win: Free Solo

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Will win: Roma
Should win: Cold War
Dark horse: Capernaum

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should win: Isle Of Dogs

DIRECTOR

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Should win: Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War
Dark horse: Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will / should win: The Favourite - Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Dark horse: First Reformed - Paul Schrader

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: BlacKkKlansman - Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk - Barry Jenkins

ACTRESS

Will / should win: Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Possible life-achievement award: Glenn Close - The Wife

ACTOR

Will win: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Should win: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Dark horse: Christian Bale - Vice

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will / should win: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Dark horses: Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Should win: Richard E Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will / should win: The Favourite - Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

COSTUME DESIGN

Will / should win: The Favourite - Sandy Powell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: BlacKkKlansman - Terence Blanchard
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk - Nicholas Britell

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: Shallow - A Star Is Born
Should win: When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Roma - Alfonso Cuaron
Should win: Cold War - Lukasz Zal

FILM EDITING

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody - John Ottman
Should win: The Favourite - Yorgos Mavropsaridis

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will win: Vice
Should win: Border

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will / should win: First Man

SOUND EDITING

Will / should win: A Quiet Place

SOUND MIXING

Will win: First Man
Should win: Roma

On the Road: Far from home

Heading from London to Los Angeles for two weeks in February, you'd rightly expect to have warmer weather. Surprise! It's colder and wetter here in California than it is in England at the moment. But at least it's sunny. I've been busy spending time with family, but managed to catch one movie here: the survival drama Arctic, starring Mads Mikkelsen as a man stranded in an endless snowscape after a plane crash. It's a bare-bones thriller, with no backstory and only one other character (who barely speaks). But it's strikingly well directed by Joe Penna, shot with skill to bring the audience right into the character's odyssey. It's hard not to shiver in the cold during the film, wince at the pain and even panic a little over the hopelessness. Even if you know it can't end as bleakly it looks like it will.

The only other film I've watched in the past week is Hedwig and the Angry Inch (2001), which I revisited on the plane. It's a personal favourite, and its scrappy charm and pungent emotion hold up, as do the iconic songs. John Cameron Mitchell's writing, direction and acting are masterful. And it's great to see the young Michael Pitt in his breakout role, as well as a very young Miriam Shor (most recently seen in Younger).

I'm now bracing myself for Oscar on Sunday, hoping the winners are a list of surprises and that the ceremony takes some risks to shake things up a bit. It's well worth watching that jaw-dropping opening number from the 1989 ceremony, the last time there wasn't a host - which is so increasingly insane that it almost seems sad something like that could never happen again (google: rob lowe snow white oscars - then settle in for 11 minutes of pure "what were they thinking" joy). I'll post my picks on Saturday...

Critical Week: Oscars for everyone

The 90th Oscar ceremony on Sunday night felt unremarkable, running along without incident with a line-up of winners that was never surprising. There were some nice touches along the way, including host Jimmy Kimmel's opening newsreel montage and his dry, sharply pointed opening monolog. Many of the thank you speeches were also topical, touching on key themes of inclusion and diversity. The star moment went to an impassioned Frances McDormand.

Meanwhile, the show was stolen by Tiffany Haddish and Maya Rudolph, who appeared holding their high heels to present a couple of awards. That made as strong a statement as any, and their banter was flat-out hilarious. Clearly the producers worked overtime to compile a diverse list of presenters, with an emphasis on women and ethnicities. Some of the homage sequences were a little odd (looking at war movies through the decades?), and Kimmel's star-packed trip to the cinema next door was clever but rather corny.

Other highlights included powerful performances of all five song nominees and welcome wins for A Fantastic Woman and long-time nominee Roger Deakins. Although the sweep by The Shape of Water felt somewhat excessive. A good film rather than a great one, its message to outsiders was certainly timely. And frankly, if the ceremony was more entertaining, we wouldn't mind if it was longer.

Meanwhile, back in the screening room, Rooney Mara stars in the biblical drama Mary Magdalene, which is a little too reverent to properly spring to life, despite a strong cast that includes Joaquin Phoenix, Chiwetel Ejiofor and Tahar Rahim as Jesus, Peter and Judas, respectively. Gringo stars David Oyelowo, Charlize Theron and Joel Edgerton in a lively, funny, entertaining but ultimately pointless action comedy. Peter Rabbit is a fast-paced, genuinely amusing romp mixing photo-real animation with live-action (Domhnall Gleeson and Rose Byrne are adorable) to riff on the classic Beatrix Potter stories. And the documentary Mansfield 66/67 traces the final years of the iconic bombshell, whose notorious friendship with Satanic church leader Anton LaVey sparked rumours of a curse surrounding her death at age 34.

Coming up this week are screenings of Alicia Vikander in the Tomb Raider reboot, Bella Thorne in Midnight Sun, Mathieu Amalric in My Golden Days, the dark drama My Friend Dahmer, the teen drama Screwed and something called Attack of the Southern Fried Zombies.

Critical Week: Oscar pulls a switcheroo

The 89th Academy Awards ended with a major upset on Sunday night, as Moonlight won the Best Picture Oscar over seemingly set-in-stone favourite La La Land, which had scooped up almost everything in its path during awards season. And it was made even more memorable when this important triumph was so badly botched by officials from PwC, who gave the wrong envelope to presenters Faye Dunaway and Warren Beatty (a 50th anniversary Bonnie & Clyde reunion), who announced La La Land. And it took two long minutes to correct the error. Watching this unfold live was simply astonishing, one of the most jaw-dropping moments in Oscar history. It definitely overshadowed just how amazing Moonlight's win is.

There were hints early on that the expected La La Land sweep wasn't going to happen, as awards were handed out to Hacksaw Ridge, Arrival, Fantastic Beasts and even Suicide Squad before La La Land won its first statuette. In the end, La La Land won 6 awards to Moonlight's 3. Other than Best Picture, there were no real upsets. Speeches were terrific, with pointed political jabs and lots of wonderfully emotional moments.

Jimmy Kimmel did a solid job as host, maintaining his jokes all the way through the ceremony (something few hosts manage). He also gave his continual mocking of Trump a jokey tone. Some of his bits didn't really work (the tour bus) and others were recycled (mean tweets), but his dry approach was very funny, and the ongoing banter with Matt Damon genuinely hilarious.

---

Before leaving Los Angeles, I managed to catch up with Get Out, Jordan Peele's superbly original horror drama - witty, scary and very clever. And back in London I headed to a screening of the strikingly original superhero thriller Logan, Hugh Jackman's last outing as Wolverine. On the plane in between, I revisited one of my all-time favourites, Mel Brooks' classic Blazing Saddles, which still makes me laugh uncontrollably.

Coming up this week, we have screenings of the new mega-blockbuster Kong: Skull Island, Kristen Stewart in Personal Shopper, Stephen Fry's Hippopotamus, the Argentine drama Bromance, and the dark romance Fair Haven, to start with.

Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Once again, here are my choices and who I think will win at the 89th Academy Awards on Sunday. My track record on this is a bit spotty, but I am a realist, knowing that Oscar voters often award the wrong people for the right reasons.....

P I C T U R E
Will/should win: La La Land
Dark horse: Moonlight

F O R E I G N   F I L M
Will win: The Salesman
Should/could win: Toni Erdmann
Dark horse: A Man Called Ove

A N I M A T E D   F E A T U R E
Will win: Zootopia
Should/could win:  Kubo and the Two Strings

D O C U M E N T A R Y
Will win: 13th
Should win:  Fire at Sea
Could win: OJ: Made in America

D I R E C T O R
Will win: Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Should win:  Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

A C T R E S S
Will/should win: Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Quite likely: Emma Stone - La La Land
Dark horse: Natalie Portman - Jackie

A C T O R
Will/should win: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Quite likely: Denzel Washington - Fences
Dark horse: Ryan Gosling - La La Land

S U P P O R T I N G   A C T R E S S
Will win: Viola Davis - Fences
Should win/dark horse: Naomie Harris - Moonlight

S U P P O R T I N G   A C T O R
Will win: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Should win:  Lucas Hedges - Manchester By The Sea
Dark horse: Dev Patel - Lion

O R I G I N A L   S C R E E N P L A Y
Will/should win: Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Could win: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

A D A P T E D   S C R E E N P L A Y
Will/should win: Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
Dark horse: Luke Davies - Lion

S C O R E
Will win: Justin Hurwitz - La La Land
Should win:  Mica Levi - Jackie

S O N G
Will win: City of Stars - La La Land
Should win:  Audition (The Fools Who Dream) - La La Land

C I N E M A T O G R A P H Y
Will win: Linus Sandgren - La La Land
Should win:  James Laxton - Moonlight

P R O D U C T I O N   D E S I G N
Will win: David Wasco - La La Land
Should win:  Jess Gonchor - Hail, Caesar!

F I L M   E D I T I N G
Will win: Tom Cross - La La Land
Should win:  Joe Walker - Arrival

C O S T U M E S
Will/should win: Madeline Fontaine - Jackie
Could win: Mary Zophres - La La Land

E F F E C T S
Will/should win: The Jungle Book

M A K E - U P   &   H A I R
Will/should win: A Man Called Ove

S O U N D   
Should win:  Arrival
Will win: La La Land

Critical Week: Oscar night 2016

The Oscars were handed out on Sunday night in a brisk Hollywood ceremony hosted by Chris Rock, who gave the event an #OscarsSoWhite theme. That felt a bit much at times, because the important point was made so forcefully right at the top of the show. There was far too focus on specifically black issues, which sidelined the inequality in other ethnicities, plus gender and sexuality. The LGBT audience was insulted when Anohi wasn't invited to perform her nominated song. Even worse was the sexist parade of scantily clad women as The Weeknd performed his song. So while racism was positively addressed, there's still a long way to go before Hollywood properly confronts diversity.

At least that theme gave the ceremony its only jaw-dropping moment, when Stacey Dash appeared to wish everyone a "happy Black History Month". Mainly the show played it very, very safe, only livened up by anarchic comics like Sarah Silverman and Louis CK. And of course Sacha Baron Cohen seriously going for broke as he introduced a Best Picture nominee in character as the ridiculous Ali G. Honestly, it seems like Oscar's ratings problem is that the ceremony is completely lacking in these kind of entertainingly bonkers moments. (Why do pundits always call awkward moments the "worst" bits of the show? They're always the only thing you remember!) And the truth is that its the fast-paced parade of no-nonsense awards presenting in minor categories that makes viewers tune out. Next year, bring back Rob Lowe and Snow White.

Awards-wise there were a few surprises, with a handful of upsets including Sam Smith's win for his Spectre theme and Ex Machina's visual effects triumph. Two other deserving surprises caused me to shout out loud: Mark Rylance for Supporting Actor and Spotlight for Best Picture. My other big cheer came when the gorgeous Stutterer won for Live-Action Short. Director Ben Cleary and producer Serena Armitage came along to two events I hosted as chair of the London Critics' Circle Film Awards: our nominations announcement event in December and our ceremony in January, where they won the Short Film prize.

I watched the Academy Awards at the official Oscar London event, a live all-night telecast in a cinema with a crowd of industry people cheering on their friends. It was almost like being at the ceremony itself, even if we were watching the show from 1.30 to 5am! As always on Oscar night, I went to bed as the sun was coming up.

As for films I watched over the past week, the screening line-up included the gorgeous Foreign-Language Oscar winner Son of Saul, Sacha Baron Cohen's mixed gross-out action comedy Grimsby, the devastating Ibsen-based Aussie drama The Daughter, the oddly mannered relationship-collapse drama Like You Mean It, and the wonderful film-fan-catnip documentary Hitchcock/Truffaut.

This coming week's screenings include Gerard Butler's sequel London Has Fallen, the drone thriller Eye in the Sky, Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams in I Saw the Light, the animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3, the period drama Marguerite and the short film collection Mexican Men.

Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: my annual list of hopes and fears about Sunday night's 88th Academy Awards ceremony. I'll be watching the show live in central London all night (it starts at 1.30am London time and finishes as the sun comes up) with the smartly dressed Oscar crowd! As always, I will be hoping for upsets, political statements and surprises. If Iñárritu's The Revenant wins everything this year, as Iñárritu's Birdman did last year, it will just be boring. Here's how I think it'll go, and what I want to happen. Obviously, this is just guesswork...

Best Picture
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Spotlight
Dark horse: Mad Max: Fury Road

Foreign Language Film
Will / should win: Son of Saul (Hungary)
Could win: Mustang (France)
Dark horse: Theeb (Jordan)

Animated Feature
Will win: Inside Out
Should win: Anomalisa

Documentary Feature
Will win: Amy
Should win: The Look of Silence

Director
Will win: Alejandro G Iñárritu, The Revenant
Should win: Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Deserving upset: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Actress
Will win: Brie Larson, Room
Should win: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Actor
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Dark horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Supporting Actress
Will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Could win: Rooney Mara, Carol
Dark horse: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Supporting Actor
Will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Big Short, Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
Should win: Carol, Phyllis Nagy
Could win: Brooklyn, Nick Hornby

Original Screenplay
Will / should win: Spotlight, Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy

Cinematography
Will win: The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
Should win: Carol, Edward Lachman
Dark horse: Sicario, Roger Deakins

Original Score
Will win: The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
Should win: Sicario, Jóhann Jóhannsson

Original Song
Will win: Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Should win: Manta Ray, Racing Extinction

Film Editing
Will win: The Revenant, Stephen Mirrione
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Margaret Sixel

Production Design
Will / should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: The Revenant

Costume Design
Will win: Carol, Sandy Powell
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Jenny Beaven

Makeup & Hairstyling
Will / should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Sicario
Could win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: The Martian
Could win: The Revenant

Visual Effects
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: Ex Machina

Critical Week: Boys will be boys

It's been a relatively low screening week here in London, mainly because most of the PR agencies were at the Berlin Film Festival. The biggest movie screened here was the Coen brothers' new Hollywood romp Hail, Caesar!, and it was a nice surprise to see that it's a more serious film than it looks. Along with deliriously knowing pastiches of 1950s movie genres (including Channing Tatum's show-stopping song and dance "No Dames", above), there's something much more thoughtful going on here.

We also had one of Robin Williams' last films, Boulevard, an intimate drama about a 60-year-old man finally coming to terms with his sexuality. It's beautifully played by the entire cast, and remarkably sensitive. Golden Years is an oddly fluffy British romp about retirees who set off on a bank-robbing spree when their pensions are lost. At least the cast is solid. And Naz & Maalik is a clever comedy about two teens in Brooklyn who, over one afternoon, are confronted with issues of religion, politics and sexuality.

Coming up on Sunday is the Oscar ceremony (all-night in Britain from 1.30am to 5.30am), which I am watching live at the official Ampas party in town. It'll be a lot of fun being with a large crowd of diehard movie fans, then travelling home as the sun comes up. As for screenings, I've got Gerard Butler's action sequel London Has Fallen, Sacha Baron Cohen's spy comedy Grimsby, Geoffrey Rush's drama The Daughter, the filmmaker conversation doc Hitchcock/Truffaut, the American politics doc The Brainwashing of My Dad, and the short film collection Mexican Men, among other things.

Critical Week: Adele and Glom forever

As always, the Oscar ceremony on Sunday night (early Monday morning live in London) was packed with classic moments, not least the awkward reunion of Idina Menzel and John Travolta, aka Adele Dazeem and Glom Gazingo. The other inspired presenter pairing was non-nominees Jennifer Aniston and David Oyelowo. Neil Patrick Harris peppered the ceremony with zingy off-handed one-liners, and lots of stiff scripted ones that made the show drag badly in the middle. Thankfully, the winners accepted their awards with a rare boldness, championing worthy big issues and refusing to accept the play-off music. Frankly, the movies should be more about this kind of thing: provoking thought by rocking the boat.

On the other hand, some of the winners were definitely not up to par - Birdman was far too heavily awarded. But it's about show business, so the voters couldn't resist, even though there were better films nominated. Big Hero 6 was the least of the animated nominees. And The Imitation Game's script is its weakest link. But never mind, history is likely to remember Boyhood as the film of the year no matter who won. And let's hear it for the Savage Grace reunion of winners Julianne Moore and Eddie Redmayne!

As for screenings last week, I took it a bit quietly. The biggest movie was The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water, a surreal romp that never tries to be anything but bonkers. The best film was Celine Sciamma's Girlhood, an astonishing, artful exploration of how it feels to be an outsider. And there was also Jennifer Lopez in the overwrought slushy thriller The Boy Next Door, Kodi Smit-McPhee in the mopey and introspective All the Wilderness, and the darkly inventive, provocatively moving Brazilian drama Futuro Beach. We also had the launch of this year's BFI Flare line-up, which looks unusually strong (the festival runs 19-29 March).

Coming up this week, Michelle Williams in Suite Francaise, Hugh Jackman in Chappie, Salma Hayek in Everly, Jean Dujardin in The Connection, British crime thriller Hackney's Finest, and horse-racing doc Dark Horse, plus catching up on things I skipped last week...

Critical Week: All rise

Yes, the big movie this week for critics was the sequel 300: Rise of an Empire, which isn't much of an improvement on the simplistic original film, but fans who like these kinds of effects-based romps (and screens full of almost naked men) will love it. A little further from the mainstream, Hair Brained is a young-genius-at-university comedy that has surprising depth, while Stephen Sommers' Odd Thomas is a quirky comedy-thriller that gets under the skin. There were also two animated features: Hayao Miyazaki's astounding Oscar-nominated animated biopic The Wind Rises, a proper movie with real characters and situations that makes Hollywood studios' formulaic animation and plotting look rather pathetic. And the Spanish animated feature Wrinkles is equally grown-up with its engaging story of pensioners bored with life in a nursing home.

It was also a week for documentaries, including the Oscar-winning Twenty Feet From Stardom, the fiercely uplifting story of iconic background singers that also takes an intriguing look at civil rights. Also Oscar-nominated, Dirty Wars takes a much gloomier look at America, revealing the dark truth about the president's black-ops programme. It's honest and razor sharp, never rabble-rousing and yet deeply depressing. Errol Morris' haunting The Unknown Known also delves into the halls of power as it interviews Donald Rumsfeld about his two controversial stints as defence secretary. And Bridegroom tells a staggeringly involving personal story that touches on America's current inequalities. Equally empowering but without being grim, Next Goal Wins follows the loveable but perpetually losing ragtag American Samoa football team to a historic first victory.

Sunday night's Oscars delivered no surprises (I only missed one prediction), even if most categories could have gone multiple ways. The ceremony itself was good fun, with Ellen's hilarious audience participation antics (serving pizza and taking this twitter-busting selfie) and some marvellously rambling thank yous (Jared Leto gave the best speech). But the "Heroes" theme didn't resonate at all, Will Smith was a strange let-down to present Best Picture (where was George Clooney when we needed him?), and aside from Pharrell's deliriously Happy opening number, the music was eerily downbeat, scraping the bottom of the barrel by dragging lovely Bette Midler out to sing her exhausted Wind Beneath My Wings. Otherwise, it was a great night, capped by Steve McQueen's jubilant, deserving triumph.

This coming week's screenings include Michael Fassbender in Frank, Viggo Mortensen in The Two Faces of January, Todd Sklar's black comedy Awful Nice, the festival favourite Cheap Thrills, the animated Zebra romp Khumba and the bio-doc The Punk Singer. Among other things...

Out on a limb: Oscar picks and predictions

This year's Oscar race is the most wide open competition in years - it's hard to remember when there were so many categories that could go one of two (or even three) ways, and this year only Best Actress is a true lock.

I'll be watching the ceremony Sunday night in London with a gang of critics and friends in a pub that's staying open all night for us. Of course, the ceremony kicks off at 1am British time and finishes around 5am, so Monday isn't going to be too terribly coherent for me! But I plan to live-tweet right through the red carpet and the ceremony.

Below are the ways I think the wind is blowing this year. I will be hoping for upsets and surprises, as always. I should also admit that I hope Gravity only wins in the craft categories, where it belongs. The film is astonishing technical genius, but let's be honest: the script makes it the least of the nine Best Picture nominees.

Picture
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
Dark horse/should win: American Hustle

Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could/should win: Steve McQueen

Actress
Will/should win: Cate Blanchett
Dark horse: Amy Adams

Actor
Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could/should win: Chiewtel Ejiofor
Dark horse: Leonardo DiCaprio

Supporting Actress
Will/should win: Lupita Nyong'o
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting Actor
Will/should win: Jared Leto
Could win: Barkhad Abdi

Original Screenplay
Will/should win: American Hustle
Could win: Her

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could/should win: Philomena

Foreign-language Film
Will win: The Great Beauty
Could/should win: The Broken Circle Breakdown

Documentary
Will win: Twenty Feet From Stardom
Could/should win: The Act of Killing

Animated Feature
Will win: Frozen
Could/should win: The Wind Rises

Score
Will win: Gravity
Should win: Her or Philomena

Cinematography/Film Editing/Effects/Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
Will/should win: Gravity

Production Design/Costumes
Will win: The Great Gatsby
Should win: American Hustle