Out on a limb: Oscar picks and predictions

This year's Oscar race is the most wide open competition in years - it's hard to remember when there were so many categories that could go one of two (or even three) ways, and this year only Best Actress is a true lock.

I'll be watching the ceremony Sunday night in London with a gang of critics and friends in a pub that's staying open all night for us. Of course, the ceremony kicks off at 1am British time and finishes around 5am, so Monday isn't going to be too terribly coherent for me! But I plan to live-tweet right through the red carpet and the ceremony.

Below are the ways I think the wind is blowing this year. I will be hoping for upsets and surprises, as always. I should also admit that I hope Gravity only wins in the craft categories, where it belongs. The film is astonishing technical genius, but let's be honest: the script makes it the least of the nine Best Picture nominees.

Picture
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
Dark horse/should win: American Hustle

Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could/should win: Steve McQueen

Actress
Will/should win: Cate Blanchett
Dark horse: Amy Adams

Actor
Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could/should win: Chiewtel Ejiofor
Dark horse: Leonardo DiCaprio

Supporting Actress
Will/should win: Lupita Nyong'o
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting Actor
Will/should win: Jared Leto
Could win: Barkhad Abdi

Original Screenplay
Will/should win: American Hustle
Could win: Her

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could/should win: Philomena

Foreign-language Film
Will win: The Great Beauty
Could/should win: The Broken Circle Breakdown

Documentary
Will win: Twenty Feet From Stardom
Could/should win: The Act of Killing

Animated Feature
Will win: Frozen
Could/should win: The Wind Rises

Score
Will win: Gravity
Should win: Her or Philomena

Cinematography/Film Editing/Effects/Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
Will/should win: Gravity

Production Design/Costumes
Will win: The Great Gatsby
Should win: American Hustle

Critical Week: 33rd Shadows Awards

Here's my top 10 films of 2013, and my top 5 picks in the other major categories. Full lists and a lot more are on the website...

T O P   1 0   F I L M S  

1. American Hustle (David O Russell)
2. 12 Years a Slave (Steve McQueen)
3. Filth (Jon S Baird)
4. Fruitvale Station (Ryan Coogler)
5. Blue Is the Warmest Colour (Abdellatif Kechiche)
6. Stories We Tell (Sarah Polley)
7. In a World... (Lake Bell)
8. Blancanieves (Pablo Berger)
9. Captain Phillips (Paul Greengrass)
10. Behind the Candelabra (Steven Soderbergh)

D I R E C T O R  

1. Jon S Baird (Filth)
2. David O Russell (American Hustle)
3. Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave)
4. Sarah Polley (Stories We Tell)
5. Paolo Sorrentino (The Great Beauty)

S C R E E N W R I T E R

1. Lake Bell (In a World...)
2. Asghar Farhadi (The Past)
3. Noah Baumbach, Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha)
4. Eric Warren Singer, David O Russell (American Hustle)
5. Haifaa Al Mansour (Wadjda)

A C T R E S S 

1. Emilie Dequenne (Our Children)
2. Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue Is the Warmest Colour)
3. Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
4. Paulina Garcia (Gloria)
5. Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

A C T O R

1. Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
2. James McAvoy (Filth, Welcome to the Punch, Trance)
3. Matt Damon (Behind the Candelabra, Elysium, The Zero Theorem)
4. Johan Heldenbergh (The Broken Circle Breakdown)
5. Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips, Saving Mr Banks)

S U P P O R T I N G   A C T R E S S  

1. Margo Martindale (August: Osage County, Beautiful Creatures)
2. Kristin Scott Thomas (Only God Forgives, The Invisible Woman, Looking for Hortense)
3. Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle, The Hunger Games: Catching Fire)
4. Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy, Stoker, The Railway Man)
5. Pernilla August (Call Girl)

S U P P O R T I N G   A C T O R 

1. James Franco (Spring Breakers, As I Lay Dying, The Iceman, Homefront)
2. Dane DeHaan (Kill Your Darlings, The Place Beyond the Pines, Jack & Diane)
3. Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)
4. David Oyelowo (The Paperboy, The Butler)
5. Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)

W O R S T   F I L M 

1. Grown Ups 2 (Dennis Dugan)
2. R.I.P.D. (Robert Schwentke)
3. G.I Joe: Retaliation (Jon M Chu)
4. Bula Quo! (Stuart St Paul)
5. Run for Your Wife (Ray Cooney, John Luton)

I've only seen a couple of documentaries in the past week to fill in some viewing gaps - namely The Square, about the ongoing Egyptian revolution, and The Missing Picture, about the killing fields in Cambodia. I'll have a few more things to catch up with next week, but in the mean time I'm enjoying a bit of a holiday from the movies. or at least the ones that put me in work mode. Happy New Year!

LFF 9: Facing the fans

As the final weekend of the 57th London Film Festival gets underway, a raft of glamorous red carpets and parties were held on Friday night. At the Peccadillo party, I chatted with the directors of Salvo, and the director and stars of Stranger by the Lake. Meanwhile in Leicester Square, Steve McQueen, Lupita Nyong'o and Chiwetel Ejiofor smiled for the camera (above left) at the festival premiere of their film 12 Years a Slave, while Tom Hardy (above right) was on hand to sign autographs at the screening of his new one-man thriller Locke. All of those and two others are among my highlights of the day, including an amazing archival restoration that was performed last night with a live orchestral accompaniment...

12 Years a Slave 
dir Steve McQueen; with Chiwetel Ejiofor, Michael Fassbender 13/US ****. 
Based on a chilling true story, this film is much more than an account of slavery in America: it's an exploration of the human urge to control and enslave people. And with fearlessly intense performances and director McQueen's artful eye, we are immersed in the story completely... FULL REVIEW >

Locke
dir Steven Knight; with Tom Hardy, Olivia Colman 13/UK *** 
Essentially a one man show, this pseudo-thriller explores the fallout from a single moment of weakness as our hero tries to salvage his marriage, family and career. The pushy set-up is a little hard to believe, but the film is held together by a terrific performance from Hardy as an essentially good guy who has reached his personal Armageddon... FULL REVIEW >

Stranger by the Lake 
dir Alain Guiraudie; with Pierre Deladonchamps, Christophe Paou 13/Fr ****. 
What starts out as a subtle drama exploring male sexuality quietly shifts into a Hitchcockian thriller, with big questions about the tension between lust and morality. Set in a gay cruising site at a naturist beach, the film isn't for the faint of heart. But its themes are bigger than the controversial setting... FULL REVIEW >

Salvo
dir Fabio Grassadonia, Antonio Piazza; with Saleh Bakri, Sara Serraiocco 13/It ***. 
With almost no dialog to speak of, this gritty Italian thriller is relentlessly artful, using strikingly skilful photography and a vividly detailed sound mix to tell a story about a heartless young man who has a sudden pang of conscience... FULL REVIEW >

Gone Too Far!
dir Destiny Ekaragha; with Malachi Kirby, OC Ukeje 13/UK ***.
With a strong blast of local humour, this comedy captures the ethnic mix of a South London community using riotous slapstick, knowing dialog and rather nutty characters. It's far too silly to have a proper kick to it, but it's bright and cheeky, and the script touches on some big issues without ever getting heavy about them... [review coming soon]

The Epic of Everest 
dir Captain John Noel with George Mallory, Andrew Irvine 24/UK 1h27 ***** 
In documenting the third expedition up Everest, filmmaker Noel demonstrates a staggering amount of stamina as well as groundbreaking technical and artistic skills. Watching this 1924 film is a mystical experience, revealing the big mountain in ways no one as ever done since. And this digital restoration makes it essential viewing... FULL REVIEW >