Out on a limb: Oscar picks and predictions

This year's Oscar race is the most wide open competition in years - it's hard to remember when there were so many categories that could go one of two (or even three) ways, and this year only Best Actress is a true lock.

I'll be watching the ceremony Sunday night in London with a gang of critics and friends in a pub that's staying open all night for us. Of course, the ceremony kicks off at 1am British time and finishes around 5am, so Monday isn't going to be too terribly coherent for me! But I plan to live-tweet right through the red carpet and the ceremony.

Below are the ways I think the wind is blowing this year. I will be hoping for upsets and surprises, as always. I should also admit that I hope Gravity only wins in the craft categories, where it belongs. The film is astonishing technical genius, but let's be honest: the script makes it the least of the nine Best Picture nominees.

Picture
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could win: Gravity
Dark horse/should win: American Hustle

Director
Will win: Alfonso Cuaron
Could/should win: Steve McQueen

Actress
Will/should win: Cate Blanchett
Dark horse: Amy Adams

Actor
Will win: Matthew McConaughey
Could/should win: Chiewtel Ejiofor
Dark horse: Leonardo DiCaprio

Supporting Actress
Will/should win: Lupita Nyong'o
Could win: Jennifer Lawrence

Supporting Actor
Will/should win: Jared Leto
Could win: Barkhad Abdi

Original Screenplay
Will/should win: American Hustle
Could win: Her

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: 12 Years a Slave
Could/should win: Philomena

Foreign-language Film
Will win: The Great Beauty
Could/should win: The Broken Circle Breakdown

Documentary
Will win: Twenty Feet From Stardom
Could/should win: The Act of Killing

Animated Feature
Will win: Frozen
Could/should win: The Wind Rises

Score
Will win: Gravity
Should win: Her or Philomena

Cinematography/Film Editing/Effects/Sound Mixing/Sound Editing
Will/should win: Gravity

Production Design/Costumes
Will win: The Great Gatsby
Should win: American Hustle

LFF 1: Aye aye, captain!

The 57th London Film Festival kicked off last night with the Leicester Square premiere of Captain Phillips, and star Tom Hanks braved the suddenly chilly evening with his wife Rita Wilson as well as director Paul Greengrass and a range of celebrities, from Tom Ford to Terry Gilliam. Tonight it was Sandra Bullock and Alfonso Cuaron's turn to present Gravity. Here are some highlights from the first day...

Captain Phillips
dir Paul Greengrass; with Tom Hanks, Barkhi Abdi 13/US *****
Coming straight from the headlines and adapted with a documentary-style attention to detail, this fiercely well-crafted thriller would be impossible to believe if it weren't true. And even though we know the end of the story, this film generates so much nerve-shredding suspense that we feel like we need to be debriefed afterwards... FULL REVIEW >

Gravity
dir Alfonso Cuaron; with Sandra Bullock, George Clooney 13/US ****
Cuaron takes us on a 91-minute thrill ride deploying cutting-edge cinema technology and a harrowing performance from Sandra Bullock to root us in our seats. So even if the plot is rather contrived, the film looks so amazing that we barely breathe as we're hurled here and there just on the cusp of Earth's atmosphere... [full review coming soon]

As I Lay Dying
dir James Franco; with James Franco, Tim Blake Nelson 13/US ***
For his first narrative feature as a director, Franco ambitiously adapts William Faulkner's notoriously grim novel. And what a surprise: the film is relentlessly downbeat, and pretty dull too. Franco may prove that he has a fresh visual eye, but the highly emotive story is oddly uninvolving... FULL REVIEW >

Jeune & Jolie
dir Francois Ozon; with Marine Vacth, Geraldine Pailhas 13/Fr ****
Ozon explores a transgressive side of sexuality in this internalised drama about a teen prostitute. But this isn't the usual trip to the seedy low-life: these are well-off people who seem balanced and intelligent. And it's tricky for us to admit that this is just as realistic as the grimier depictions we see in preachier films... FULL REVIEW >

The Congress
dir Ari Folman; with Robin Wright, Harvey Keitel 13/Isr ***.
A film of two halves, this brain-bending drama/thriller is either a provocative exploration of identity in an increasingly digital age or an indulgent visual kaleidoscope that only the filmmaker can understand. Either way, it's bracingly original and often thrilling to watch... FULL REVIEW >