Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: it's the 90th Academy Awards, and it seems as predictable as always. Hopefully they'll throw some surprises in on Sunday night. So even though I rarely get many of these right, here are my votes, who I think will win and who might sneak in and take home the prize. I'm always hoping for an upset...

BEST PICTURE
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will / should win: A Fantastic Woman
Could win: The Insult
Dark horse: Loveless

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Coco
Dark horse: The Breadwinner

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will / should win: Faces Places
Could win: Strong Island

DIRECTING
Will win: The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro
Should / could win: Dunkirk - Christopher Nolan

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Call Me by Your Name - James Ivory
Could win: Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
Dark horse: Mudbound - Virgil Williams, Dee Rees

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Three Billboards - Martin McDonagh
Could win: Get Out - Jordan Peele
Dark horse: Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Could win: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Should win: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Could win: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Could win: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Shape of Water - Alexandre Desplat
Should win: Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: This Is Me - The Greatest Showman
Should win: Remember Me - Coco

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Blade Runner 2049 - Roger A Deakins
Should win: Dunkirk - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING
Will win: Baby Driver - Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos
Should win: Dunkirk - Lee Smith
Dark horse: I, Tonya - Tatiana S Riegel

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Phantom Thread

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark horse: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Darkest Hour

SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk
Could win: Blade Runner 2049

The Best of 2017: 37th Shadows Awards

I don't use traditional eligibility rules for my lists - I tried, but it got too confusing to balance US and UK release schedules. So this is based on films I saw during 2017 that were screened to paying audiences, either in regular cinemas or at film festivals.

My top film this year is simply the one I couldn't get out of my head. It had a visceral impact while I watched it, and has lingered ever since. I feel like it's one of the most important films made anywhere in recent years. Intriguingly, this is the second year in a row in which a Chilean filmmaker made my best movie of the year.

Note that a much more extensive roundup of the year is at THE 37TH SHADOWS AWARDS, including my top 50 films, longer lists in every category, and frankly more than anyone wants or needs. This is an extremely abridged summary...

FILMS: 

1. A Fantastic Woman (Sebastian Lelio)
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
3. God's Own Country (Francis Lee)
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele)
5. Coco (Lee Unkrich)
6. You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 
8. Patti Cake$ (Geremy Jasper)
9. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino)
10. Lady Macbeth (William Oldroyd)

DIRECTORS: 

1. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
2. Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)
3. Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled)
4. Sebastian Lelio (A Fantastic Woman)
5. Francis Lee (God's Own Country)

WRITERS:

1. Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
2. James Ivory (Call Me by Your Name)
3. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
4. Celine Sciamma (My Life as a Courgette)
5. Geremy Jasper (Patti Cake$)

ACTRESSES: 

1. Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)
2. Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
3. Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner, The Hitman's Bodyguard)
4. Trine Dyrholm (Nico, 1988)
5. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

ACTORS: 

1. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird, Hostiles)
2. Harris Dickinson (Beach Rats)
3. Lakeith Stanfield (Crown Heights, The Incredible Jessica James)
4. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
5. Adam Driver (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Logan Lucky)

SUPPORTING ACTRESSES: 

1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
3. Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
4. Bridget Everett (Patti Cake$, Fun Mom Dinner)
5. Mary J Blige (Mudbound)

SUPPORTING ACTORS: 

1. John Boyega (Detroit, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
3. Patrick Stewart (Logan, The Wilde Wedding)
4. Thomas Gioria (Custody)
5. Will Poulter (Detroit)

WORST FILMS: 

1. Transformers: The Last Knight (Michael Bay)
2. Chips (Dax Shepard)
3. Stratton (Simon West)
4. Bright (David Ayer)
5. Fifty Shades Darker (James Foley)
6. The Shack (Stuart Hazeldine)
7. Home Again (Hallie Meyers-Shyer)
8. The Snowman (Thomas Alfredson)
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Joachim Ronning, Espen Sandberg)
10. Baywatch (Seth Gordon)

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N O N - F I L M   D I V I S I O N

TV SERIES:

1. The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
2. Twin Peaks (Netflix)
3. Big Little Lies (HBO)
4. Veep (HBO)
5. Stranger Things (Netflix)
6. Game of Thrones (Sky)
7. Master of None (Netflix)
8. Black Mirror (Netflix)
9. Queers (BBC)
10. The Carmichael Show (NBC)

SINGLES: 

1. Human (Rag 'n' Bone Man)
2. Sign of the Times (Harry Styles)
3. In the Name of Man (Plan B)
4. Green Light (Lorde)
5. Everything Now (Arcade Fire)
6. Shape of You (Ed Sheeran)
7. Oh Woman Oh Man (London Grammar)
8. Blinded by Your Grace, Part 2 (Stormzy & MNEK)
9. Walk on Water (Eminem & Beyonce)
10. Malibu (Miley Cyrus)

LFF: Kick back on Day 12

Well, it's all over for another year, so I can start to get back to normal life now. Tonight's closing film is Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (that's Sam Rockwell above), with the usual red carpet premiere and gala party after. But for me it's been about the films, and there have been some great ones (plus a few duds). And as always, there is a long list of movies that I desperately wanted to see but couldn't fit into my schedule. Here are the winners of the festival's official juried awards, my 10 best films (including some I had seen previously), and a final collection of highlights...

BFI LONDON FILM FESTIVAL 2017 AWARDS

• Best Film: LOVELESS
• Doc (Grierson Award): KINGDOM OF US
• First Feature (Sutherland Award): THE WOUND
• BFI Fellowship: Paul Greengrass

MY BEST OF THE FEST 2017:

1. A FANTASTIC WOMAN
2. YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE
3. THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
4. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
5. 120 BEATS PER MINUTE
6. LOVELESS
7. LAST FLAG FLYING
8. LEAN ON PETE
9. THE FLORIDA PROJECT
10. CUSTODY

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
dir-scr Martin McDonagh; with Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson 17/US *****
Writer-director Martin McDonaugh is on blistering form with this fiendishly clever personal drama, which arrives masquerading as a funny, violent police thriller. With take-no-prisoners performances from the entire cast, particularly a storming Frances McDormand, the film tackles our angry world head-on with a surprisingly heartfelt plea for compassion. And it approaches the riveting story and pungent themes with remarkable honesty... FULL REVIEW >

Zama
dir-scr Lucrecia Martel; with Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Lola Duenas 17/Arg ***
This is a fairly difficult movie even by the standards of adventurous Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. An existential odyssey based on the 1956 novel by Antonio Di Benedetto, it simply refuses to coalesce into any kind of sensible narrative as the title character's life becomes a swirling nightmare of bureaucracy and cross-cultural messiness. And that's actually the point. At least it's fascinating, beautifully shot and acted, and packed with witty satire... FULL REVIEW >

The Prince of Nothingwood
dir Sonia Kronlund; with Salim Shaheen, Sonia Kronlund 17/Fr ****
A fly-on-the-wall look at prolific Afghan filmmaker Salim Shaheen, this documentary is both playful and chilling in the way it explores the life of a colourful man and a nation's momentous history. French-Swiss journalist Sonia Kronlund follows Shaheen into some rarely seen parts of Afghanistan, which he calls "Nothingwood" due to his no-budget filmmaking style. It's an entertaining and eye-opening film.

Antonio Lopez 1970: Sex Fashion & Disco
dir-scr James Crump; with Bill Cunningham, Jessica Lange 17/US 1h30 ****
A fast-paced, skilful portrait of an artist who isn't very well-known outside fashion circles, this film is infused with the sensuality of its 1970s period. Through lively, expressive interviews and a wealth of footage and stills, Antonio Lopez springs to life before our eyes, making us wish we had a chance to get to know him, because he seems like someone we'd probably fall in love with just like everyone else did.

LFF: Having an adventure on Day 3

The movie marathon continues, with three or four films per day during the 61st BFI London Film Festival. I know there are star-filled red carpets and lavish parties taking place somewhere, but the vast majority of working journalists never get invited to those. We shuffle from cinema to cinema all day catching what we can in a crowded schedule (usually having to select one of six or seven films screening simultaneously, and missing the rest of them completely). So far I've only missed a few things I wanted to see. Here are highlights tonight and tomorrow...

Wonderstruck
dir Todd Haynes; with Oakes Fegley, Millicent Simmonds (above) 17/US ****.
There's an intricate web of connections at the heart of this ambitious film, gradually building a expanding mystery that quietly sucks the audience in until a goosebump-inducing finale. It takes awhile to get there, but it's well worth the wait, augmented by director Todd Haynes' astonishing attention to detail in two iconic periods. And all of the central performances are powerfully moving.

A Fantastic Woman [Una Mujer Fantástica]
dir Sebastian Lelio; with Daniela Vega, Francisco Reyes 17/Chl ****.
With remarkable sensitivity, this drama by Chilean filmmaker Sebastian Lelio (Gloria) tells a vital story that carries a fiercely moving kick. Indeed, it's one of the most important films of the year, exploring a timely issue with dignity and grace: a cry for compassion in a callous world. It's also quite simply beautiful, written and directed with artistry and skilfully well-acted, most notably by Daniela Vega in the title role.

Manifesto
dir-scr Julian Rosefeldt; with Cate Blanchett 16/Ger 1h35 **.
Enormous ideas swirl around this experimental essay in which Cate Blanchett plays 12 distinctly different characters who launch into iconic philosophical rants about art and humanity. There are so many highfalutin words that the movie becomes a bit of a mumbly blur, but it's strikingly shot with sharply created settings that add witty touches all the way through. And filmmaker Julian Rosefeldt's point seems to be that of this arguing is pointless.

Beach Rats 
dir-scr Eliza Hittman; with Harris Dickinson, Madeline Weinstein 17/US ****
Despite a couple of slightly clanking plot points, there's the lovely aura of Gus Van Sant hovering around this loose, introspective teen drama. It's so finely observed that it can't help but draw the viewer deep into the story of a young man struggling to make sense of his identity while surrounded by his lifelong friends. The point of view is so strong that the other characters barely exist... FULL REVIEW >

The Double Lover [L'Amant Double]
dir-scr Francois Ozon; with Marine Vacth, Jeremie Renier 17/Fr ***.
Chameleon-like filmmaker Francois Ozon sets out this movie in the style of Almodovar doing a Hitchcock homage. And the double-layered approach is perfect for a sly, twisty plot adapted from a Joyce Carol Oates novel. Sexy and playful, the film spins around dualities, warping reality to present a story that keeps us both gripped and entertained.

A Moment in the Reeds
dir-scr Mikko Makela; with Janne Puustinen, Boodi Kabbani 17/Fin ****
Earthy and gentle, this drama runs to the quiet rhythms of rural Finland. Writer-director Mikko Makela relishes the natural elements of life in a natural setting, as two young men from very different backgrounds get to know each other without many distractions. Their conversations are profound and revealing, underscored with humour and a lovely sense of mutual understanding that's grounded and complex.