Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: it's the 90th Academy Awards, and it seems as predictable as always. Hopefully they'll throw some surprises in on Sunday night. So even though I rarely get many of these right, here are my votes, who I think will win and who might sneak in and take home the prize. I'm always hoping for an upset...

BEST PICTURE
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will / should win: A Fantastic Woman
Could win: The Insult
Dark horse: Loveless

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Coco
Dark horse: The Breadwinner

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will / should win: Faces Places
Could win: Strong Island

DIRECTING
Will win: The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro
Should / could win: Dunkirk - Christopher Nolan

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Call Me by Your Name - James Ivory
Could win: Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
Dark horse: Mudbound - Virgil Williams, Dee Rees

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Three Billboards - Martin McDonagh
Could win: Get Out - Jordan Peele
Dark horse: Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Could win: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Should win: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Could win: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Could win: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Shape of Water - Alexandre Desplat
Should win: Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: This Is Me - The Greatest Showman
Should win: Remember Me - Coco

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Blade Runner 2049 - Roger A Deakins
Should win: Dunkirk - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING
Will win: Baby Driver - Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos
Should win: Dunkirk - Lee Smith
Dark horse: I, Tonya - Tatiana S Riegel

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Phantom Thread

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark horse: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Darkest Hour

SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk
Could win: Blade Runner 2049

The Best of 2017: 37th Shadows Awards

I don't use traditional eligibility rules for my lists - I tried, but it got too confusing to balance US and UK release schedules. So this is based on films I saw during 2017 that were screened to paying audiences, either in regular cinemas or at film festivals.

My top film this year is simply the one I couldn't get out of my head. It had a visceral impact while I watched it, and has lingered ever since. I feel like it's one of the most important films made anywhere in recent years. Intriguingly, this is the second year in a row in which a Chilean filmmaker made my best movie of the year.

Note that a much more extensive roundup of the year is at THE 37TH SHADOWS AWARDS, including my top 50 films, longer lists in every category, and frankly more than anyone wants or needs. This is an extremely abridged summary...

FILMS: 

1. A Fantastic Woman (Sebastian Lelio)
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
3. God's Own Country (Francis Lee)
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele)
5. Coco (Lee Unkrich)
6. You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 
8. Patti Cake$ (Geremy Jasper)
9. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino)
10. Lady Macbeth (William Oldroyd)

DIRECTORS: 

1. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
2. Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)
3. Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled)
4. Sebastian Lelio (A Fantastic Woman)
5. Francis Lee (God's Own Country)

WRITERS:

1. Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
2. James Ivory (Call Me by Your Name)
3. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
4. Celine Sciamma (My Life as a Courgette)
5. Geremy Jasper (Patti Cake$)

ACTRESSES: 

1. Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)
2. Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
3. Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner, The Hitman's Bodyguard)
4. Trine Dyrholm (Nico, 1988)
5. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

ACTORS: 

1. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird, Hostiles)
2. Harris Dickinson (Beach Rats)
3. Lakeith Stanfield (Crown Heights, The Incredible Jessica James)
4. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
5. Adam Driver (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Logan Lucky)

SUPPORTING ACTRESSES: 

1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
3. Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
4. Bridget Everett (Patti Cake$, Fun Mom Dinner)
5. Mary J Blige (Mudbound)

SUPPORTING ACTORS: 

1. John Boyega (Detroit, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
3. Patrick Stewart (Logan, The Wilde Wedding)
4. Thomas Gioria (Custody)
5. Will Poulter (Detroit)

WORST FILMS: 

1. Transformers: The Last Knight (Michael Bay)
2. Chips (Dax Shepard)
3. Stratton (Simon West)
4. Bright (David Ayer)
5. Fifty Shades Darker (James Foley)
6. The Shack (Stuart Hazeldine)
7. Home Again (Hallie Meyers-Shyer)
8. The Snowman (Thomas Alfredson)
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Joachim Ronning, Espen Sandberg)
10. Baywatch (Seth Gordon)

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N O N - F I L M   D I V I S I O N

TV SERIES:

1. The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
2. Twin Peaks (Netflix)
3. Big Little Lies (HBO)
4. Veep (HBO)
5. Stranger Things (Netflix)
6. Game of Thrones (Sky)
7. Master of None (Netflix)
8. Black Mirror (Netflix)
9. Queers (BBC)
10. The Carmichael Show (NBC)

SINGLES: 

1. Human (Rag 'n' Bone Man)
2. Sign of the Times (Harry Styles)
3. In the Name of Man (Plan B)
4. Green Light (Lorde)
5. Everything Now (Arcade Fire)
6. Shape of You (Ed Sheeran)
7. Oh Woman Oh Man (London Grammar)
8. Blinded by Your Grace, Part 2 (Stormzy & MNEK)
9. Walk on Water (Eminem & Beyonce)
10. Malibu (Miley Cyrus)

Critical Week: Family time

I've caught up with a few films while I've been out here in Los Angeles, in between binging on food at Thanksgiving time with the family. The best so far is Pixar's Coco, another triumph in both animation and storytelling. It's a riveting adventure with properly pungent emotional undertones and a fantastic sense of Latino culture.

And the other two this week were good as well. Based on the bestselling novel, Wonder is a beautifully made film that grapples with how it feels to be an outsider - a must see for school kids and everyone else too. It features a terrific cast of kids, including Jacob Tremblay and Noah Jupe. And Greta Gerwig's Lady Bird is one of the most honest coming-of-age movies in recent memory, a messy, lively, funny, wrenching tale of a teen (the superb Saoirse Ronan) flexing her wings for the first time. Particularly strong support from Laurie Metcalf.

I'm heading back to London this week, so am not sure what films are in store. Am hoping to catch an early screening of Paul Thomas Anderson's Phantom Thread, as well as James Franco's The Disaster Artist and the holiday horror Better Watch Out.