Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: it's the 90th Academy Awards, and it seems as predictable as always. Hopefully they'll throw some surprises in on Sunday night. So even though I rarely get many of these right, here are my votes, who I think will win and who might sneak in and take home the prize. I'm always hoping for an upset...

BEST PICTURE
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will / should win: A Fantastic Woman
Could win: The Insult
Dark horse: Loveless

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Coco
Dark horse: The Breadwinner

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will / should win: Faces Places
Could win: Strong Island

DIRECTING
Will win: The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro
Should / could win: Dunkirk - Christopher Nolan

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Call Me by Your Name - James Ivory
Could win: Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
Dark horse: Mudbound - Virgil Williams, Dee Rees

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Three Billboards - Martin McDonagh
Could win: Get Out - Jordan Peele
Dark horse: Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Could win: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Should win: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Could win: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Could win: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Shape of Water - Alexandre Desplat
Should win: Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: This Is Me - The Greatest Showman
Should win: Remember Me - Coco

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Blade Runner 2049 - Roger A Deakins
Should win: Dunkirk - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING
Will win: Baby Driver - Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos
Should win: Dunkirk - Lee Smith
Dark horse: I, Tonya - Tatiana S Riegel

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Phantom Thread

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark horse: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Darkest Hour

SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk
Could win: Blade Runner 2049

The Best of 2017: 37th Shadows Awards

I don't use traditional eligibility rules for my lists - I tried, but it got too confusing to balance US and UK release schedules. So this is based on films I saw during 2017 that were screened to paying audiences, either in regular cinemas or at film festivals.

My top film this year is simply the one I couldn't get out of my head. It had a visceral impact while I watched it, and has lingered ever since. I feel like it's one of the most important films made anywhere in recent years. Intriguingly, this is the second year in a row in which a Chilean filmmaker made my best movie of the year.

Note that a much more extensive roundup of the year is at THE 37TH SHADOWS AWARDS, including my top 50 films, longer lists in every category, and frankly more than anyone wants or needs. This is an extremely abridged summary...

FILMS: 

1. A Fantastic Woman (Sebastian Lelio)
2. Dunkirk (Christopher Nolan)
3. God's Own Country (Francis Lee)
4. Get Out (Jordan Peele)
5. Coco (Lee Unkrich)
6. You Were Never Really Here (Lynne Ramsay)
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Martin McDonagh) 
8. Patti Cake$ (Geremy Jasper)
9. Call Me By Your Name (Luca Guadagnino)
10. Lady Macbeth (William Oldroyd)

DIRECTORS: 

1. Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
2. Lynne Ramsay (You Were Never Really Here)
3. Sofia Coppola (The Beguiled)
4. Sebastian Lelio (A Fantastic Woman)
5. Francis Lee (God's Own Country)

WRITERS:

1. Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
2. James Ivory (Call Me by Your Name)
3. Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
4. Celine Sciamma (My Life as a Courgette)
5. Geremy Jasper (Patti Cake$)

ACTRESSES: 

1. Florence Pugh (Lady Macbeth)
2. Daniela Vega (A Fantastic Woman)
3. Salma Hayek (Beatriz at Dinner, The Hitman's Bodyguard)
4. Trine Dyrholm (Nico, 1988)
5. Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

ACTORS: 

1. Timothee Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name, Lady Bird, Hostiles)
2. Harris Dickinson (Beach Rats)
3. Lakeith Stanfield (Crown Heights, The Incredible Jessica James)
4. Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
5. Adam Driver (Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Logan Lucky)

SUPPORTING ACTRESSES: 

1. Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
2. Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
3. Carrie Fisher (Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
4. Bridget Everett (Patti Cake$, Fun Mom Dinner)
5. Mary J Blige (Mudbound)

SUPPORTING ACTORS: 

1. John Boyega (Detroit, Star Wars: The Last Jedi)
2. Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
3. Patrick Stewart (Logan, The Wilde Wedding)
4. Thomas Gioria (Custody)
5. Will Poulter (Detroit)

WORST FILMS: 

1. Transformers: The Last Knight (Michael Bay)
2. Chips (Dax Shepard)
3. Stratton (Simon West)
4. Bright (David Ayer)
5. Fifty Shades Darker (James Foley)
6. The Shack (Stuart Hazeldine)
7. Home Again (Hallie Meyers-Shyer)
8. The Snowman (Thomas Alfredson)
9. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales (Joachim Ronning, Espen Sandberg)
10. Baywatch (Seth Gordon)

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N O N - F I L M   D I V I S I O N

TV SERIES:

1. The Handmaid's Tale (Hulu)
2. Twin Peaks (Netflix)
3. Big Little Lies (HBO)
4. Veep (HBO)
5. Stranger Things (Netflix)
6. Game of Thrones (Sky)
7. Master of None (Netflix)
8. Black Mirror (Netflix)
9. Queers (BBC)
10. The Carmichael Show (NBC)

SINGLES: 

1. Human (Rag 'n' Bone Man)
2. Sign of the Times (Harry Styles)
3. In the Name of Man (Plan B)
4. Green Light (Lorde)
5. Everything Now (Arcade Fire)
6. Shape of You (Ed Sheeran)
7. Oh Woman Oh Man (London Grammar)
8. Blinded by Your Grace, Part 2 (Stormzy & MNEK)
9. Walk on Water (Eminem & Beyonce)
10. Malibu (Miley Cyrus)

LFF: See the wonder on Day 6

Another busy day at the 61st BFI London Film Festival, with some extra colour in the middle as I attended a meet-the-filmmakers event and got a chance to visit with Takashi Miike (Blade of the Immortals), Anne Fontaine (Reinventing Marvin) and David Batty (My Generation), among others. Here are some more highlights from the festival - note that full reviews will be up on the site as soon as I can get them there. Finding time to write in between films can be a bit tricky...

Professor Marston and the Wonder Women
dir-scr Angela Robinson; with Luke Evans, Rebecca Hall 17/US ****
If you've never read about how the Wonder Woman comics were created, you might need to brace yourself for this film. Because in exploring the lives of the Harvard brainiacs behind the first and most popular female superhero, the filmmakers dip into a counterculture lifestyle that would probably have tongues wagging now, let alone in the 1940s. It's also a sharply well written and directed film, with a solid cast that brings depth to the characters.

Thoroughbred
dir-scr Cory Finley; with Anya Taylor-Joy, Olivia Cooke 17/US ***.
Brittle and very bleak, this black comedy takes a rather unnecessary swipe at the vacuous life of privileged teens, as if there's anything else to say on the topic. Even so, it's strikingly written and directed by newcomer Corey Finley, while rising stars Anya Taylor-Joy and Olivia Cooke make the most of the twisted dialog. It also explores an aspect of Millennial culture that's rarely depicted on-screen.

Call Me By Your Name
dir Luca Guadagnino; with Armie Hammer, Timothee Chalamet 17/It ****.
With a sunny dose of nostalgia, this drama traces a pivotal summer in a young man's life. Characters and situations are complex, challenging the viewer to share the experience. And while this may seem to be a film about sexuality, it's actually more potently an exploration of how important it is to embrace our emotions, even the ones that hurt.

Loving Vincent
dir Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman; with Douglas Booth, Saoirse Ronan 17/UK ***.
Like Richard Linklater's Waking Life and A Scanner Darkly, this film was hand animated frame-by-frame from live-action footage, although in this case it was done by some 100 artists working with oil paints. A look into the final days of Vincent van Gogh, the exquisitely rendered imagery is a swirling odyssey through his work, echoing characters and settings while exploring his tragic and mysterious death at age 37 in 1890.

Funny Cow
dir Adrian Shergold; with Maxine Peake, Paddy Considine 17/UK ***
This is a sharply well-made drama about a woman going against the current in her culture. It's beautifully filmed and performed with energy and attitude. On the other hand, for a movie about a stand-up comic, it's relentlessly dour. There are some riotous moments along the way, and the acting is riveting enough to hold the interest all the way through, but the overall tone is seriously grim.

A Prayer Before Dawn
dir Jean-Stephane Sauvaire; with Joe Cole, Pornchanok Mabklang 17/UK ****
Based on Billy Moore's memoir, this is a harrowing true account of a young British man's experience in a Thai prison. There isn't much context, actually no background at all, and therefore no real sense of any of the characters. Still, the film is utterly riveting, as director Jean-Stephane Sauvaire takes the audience on a jarring, unforgettable odyssey that leaves us with some big themes to chew on.

Critical Week: Take a break

Press screenings for the 61st BFI London Film Festival started on Monday, and first out of the block were films that have a UK release coming up soon after the festival ends (it runs 4-15 Oct). I'll write more about these movies during the festival itself, including full reviews of many of them. But this week I saw Luca Guadagnino's exquisite Call Me By Your Name starring Armie Hammer and Timothee Chalamet (above), Aubrey Plaza in the snappy black comedy Ingrid Goes West, Russian master Andrey Zvyagintsev's excellent Loveless, Japanese master Takashi Miike's gritty and layered samurai epic Blade of the Immortal, the quirky Zambian satire I Am Not a Witch, and the fascinating doc The Prince of Nothingwood about an outrageous Afghan filmmaker.

As for non-festival movies, since there were no press screenings I could attend, I had to buy a ticket to see Kingsman: The Golden Circle at my local cinema on Wednesday morning. It's good fun, in a nutty sort of way, but pales in comparison to the transgressive original. Reese Witherspoon and Michael Sheen showed up in person (pics on Instagram!) to introduce their new film Home Again, along with writer-director Hallie Meyers-Shyer and producer Nancy Meyers. It's the perfect film for people who love sappy movies about perfect white people. Much scruffier, Big Bear is a rather clunky Hangover-style bachelor party movie that turns violent. Shot is a riveting drama tracing the impact of a gunshot from a variety of angles. The Ritual is a twisty and atmospheric thriller about a group of Brits lost in a very creepy Swedish woodland. And In Between is the terrific Israeli comedy-drama that has caused all kinds of controversy in its homeland for its depiction of free-thinking Palestinian women.

Coming up this next week, we have the AA Milne biopic Goodbye Christopher Robin, Adam Sandler in The Meyerowitz Stories and the nature doc Earth: One Amazing Day. London Film Festival screenings include Jake Gyllenhaal in Stronger, Claire Foy in Breathe, Michael Haneke's Happy End, Robin Campillo's 120 BPM, the black comedy Brigsby Bear, the Aussie thriller 1%, the Israeli drama Foxtrot, and the Chilean drama A Fantastic Woman. Yes, it'll be another busy one!