Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I never feel hugely confident about predicting the Oscars, mainly because I am always hoping for upsets. This year's race has been unusually tricky to predict, with distinct winners from the guilds, Bafta and various precursor awards. So this year I'll feel happy if I get my usual 15 out of 20 correct. I get to vote in several awards during the season, but here's who I'd vote for if I got my hands on an Oscar ballot, along with who I think will win, and who could sneak in and walk off with the prize...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front - Germany
Should win: The Quiet Girl - Ireland
Dark horse: Close - Belgium

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Should win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Navalny
Should win: All The Beauty and The Bloodshed
Dark horse: Fire of Love

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Dark horse: The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh
Dark horse: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Women Talking - Sarah Polley
Should win: Living - Kazuo Ishiguro
Dark horse: Glass Onion - Rian Johnson

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Serious contender: Cate Blanchett - Tár

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Austin Butler - Elvis
Should win: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Dark horse: Bill Nighy - Living

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should win: Hong Chau - The Whale
Dark horse: Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Babylon - Justin Hurwitz
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Volker Bertelmann

ORIGINAL SONG
Will / should win: Naatu Naatu, RRR - MM Keeravaani, Chandrabose
Dark horse: Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick - Lady Gaga, Bloodpop

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Elvis - Mandy Walker
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - James Friend

FILM EDITING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Paul Rogers

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Babylon - Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
Dark horse: Elvis - Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Elvis - Catherine Martin
Dark horse: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Ruth E Carter

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Avatar: The Way of Water - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Elvis - Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Aldo Signoretti
Dark horse: The Whale - Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley

SOUND
Will / should win: Top Gun: Maverick - Mark Weingarten, James Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte

Critical Week: Taking care of business

It's been another eclectic week for press screenings, cut short here in Britain by a four-day weekend to celebrate the Queen's Platinum Jubilee: 70 years on the throne. But the movies just keep coming. The biggest screening was for Elvis, introduced in person by Baz Luhrmann, Tom Hanks, Austin Butler and various other actors and producers. I absolutely loved the film, as Luhrmann uses his hyper-lush approach to dig for deeper meaning in Elvis Presley's life story.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
Fire Island • Men • Neptune Frost
Dashcam • Pickpocket • C.R.A.Z.Y.
ALL REVIEWS >

Also surprisingly deep, the romantic comedy Fire Island gives Jane Austen's Pride and Prejudice a proper queer spin, and is notable for being unapologetic, hilarious and swoon-worthy. The animated feature The Bob's Burgers Movie is deadpan comical fun even for those unfamiliar with the TV show. And a bit further afield, the Indian drama Major recounts the true story of a hero of the 2008 Mumbai attack with sudsy melodrama and rah-rah patriotism, while the Rwandan musical fantasy Neptune Frost is so bracingly original that it gets deep under the skin even if its story is dreamy and enigmatic. And the shorts collection The Male Gaze: Fleeting Glances features seven sharply provocative films exploring awkward connections.

Everything gets much busier next week with Sundance Film Festival: London - I'm planning to see nine films there, and will cover them here as usual. The movies include Emma Thompson in I Love You, Leo Grande; Sterling K Brown in Honk For Jesus, Save Your Soul; Rebecca Hall in Resurrection; the British drama Brian and Charles; Finnish horror Hatching; volcanic documentary Fire of Love; and social justice doc Free Sol Choo Lee.