Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I never feel hugely confident about predicting the Oscars, mainly because I am always hoping for upsets. This year's race has been unusually tricky to predict, with distinct winners from the guilds, Bafta and various precursor awards. So this year I'll feel happy if I get my usual 15 out of 20 correct. I get to vote in several awards during the season, but here's who I'd vote for if I got my hands on an Oscar ballot, along with who I think will win, and who could sneak in and walk off with the prize...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front - Germany
Should win: The Quiet Girl - Ireland
Dark horse: Close - Belgium

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Should win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Navalny
Should win: All The Beauty and The Bloodshed
Dark horse: Fire of Love

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Dark horse: The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh
Dark horse: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Women Talking - Sarah Polley
Should win: Living - Kazuo Ishiguro
Dark horse: Glass Onion - Rian Johnson

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Serious contender: Cate Blanchett - Tár

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Austin Butler - Elvis
Should win: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Dark horse: Bill Nighy - Living

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should win: Hong Chau - The Whale
Dark horse: Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Babylon - Justin Hurwitz
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Volker Bertelmann

ORIGINAL SONG
Will / should win: Naatu Naatu, RRR - MM Keeravaani, Chandrabose
Dark horse: Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick - Lady Gaga, Bloodpop

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Elvis - Mandy Walker
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - James Friend

FILM EDITING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Paul Rogers

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Babylon - Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
Dark horse: Elvis - Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Elvis - Catherine Martin
Dark horse: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Ruth E Carter

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Avatar: The Way of Water - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Elvis - Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Aldo Signoretti
Dark horse: The Whale - Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley

SOUND
Will / should win: Top Gun: Maverick - Mark Weingarten, James Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte

The Best of 2022: 42nd Shadows Awards

After the first few months of trailing pandemic chaos, 2022 felt much more normal for film critics, as we saw most major releases on the big screen. Oddly, the same can't be said for audiences, who seem happy to watch movies at home now, reserving cinemas for event blockbusters only. The ripple effects on the industry are already beginning to be felt, and it's scary to think that fewer and fewer truly inventive films will be able to be seen in theatres. No home cinema will ever replicate the feeling of watching something with a crowd immersed together in projection and sound.

So here are my favourites from 2022, a mixed bunch that I saw in cinemas, at home, at festivals and even on airplanes. Much more extensive lists are ON THE WEBSITE >

BEST FILM:

1. Everything Everywhere All at Once 
2. No Bears
3. The Quiet Girl 
4. The Inspection 
5. The Banshees of Inisherin 
6. Living
7. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
8. Decision to Leave 
9. She Said 
10. Elvis 

DIRECTOR:

1. Park Chan-wook - Decision to Leave
2. Romain Gavras - Athena
3. Charlotte Wells - Aftersun
4. Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once
5. Sarah Polley - Women Talking
6. Iryna Tsilyk - Rock. Paper. Grenade.
7. Baz Luhrmann - Elvis
8. Georgia Oakley - Blue Jean
9. Maryna Er Gorbach - Klondike
10. Lila Neugebauer - Causeway

SCREENWRITER:

1. Kazuo Ishiguro - Living
2. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Jafar Panahi - No Bears
4. Marie Kreutzer - Corsage
5. Sarah Polley - Women Talking
6. Elegance Bratton - The Inspection
7. Rian Johnson - Glass Onion
8. Daniel Kwan, Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All at Once
9. Dimitrij Schaad, Alex Schaad - Skin Deep
10. Lena Dunham - Sharp Stick, Catherine Called Birdy

ACTRESS:

1. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Letitia Wright - Aisha, The Silent Twins, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Ana de Armas - Blonde, Deep Water, ​​The Gray Man
4. Catherine Clinch - The Quiet Girl
5. Penelope Cruz - Official Competition, Immensity, On the Fringe, The 355
6. Cate Blanchett - Tár
7. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
8. Florence Pugh - The Wonder, Don't Worry Darling
9. Zar Amir Ebrahimi - Holy Spider
10. Jessie Buckley - Men, Women Talking

ACTOR:

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin, After Yang, The Batman
2. Bill Nighy - Living
3. Jeremy Pope - The Inspection
4. Paul Mescal - Aftersun
5. Mehdi Bajestani - Holy Spider
6. Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway, Bullet Train
7. Park Hae-il - Decision to Leave
8. Oleksandr Yatsentyuk - Pamfir
9. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
10. Austin Butler - Elvis

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

1. Hong Chau - The Whale, The Menu
2. Samantha Morton - The Whale, She Said
3. Nina Hoss - Tár
4. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness
5. Frankie Corio - Aftersun
6. Gabrielle Union - The Inspection
7. Judy Davis - Nitram
8. Kiyohiko Shibukawa - Wheel of Fortune and Fantasy
9. Lashana Lynch - The Woman King, Matilda the Musical
10. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once, Halloween Ends

SUPPORTING ACTOR:

1. Diego Calva - Babylon
2. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
4. Ben Whishaw - Women Talking
5. Andrew Bennett - The Quiet Girl
6. John Boyega - The Woman King
7. Anthony Bajon - Athena
8. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
9. Russell Harvard - Causeway
10. Thomas Wodianka - Skin Deep

WORST FILM:

1. Samaritan
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 2
3. Padre Pio
4. Dear Zoe
5. Where the Crawdads Sing 
6. The 355 
7. The Bubble
8. Moonfall
9. Mr Malcolm's List
10. Death on the Nile 

N O N - F I L M   D I V I S I O N

TV SERIES:

1. This Is Going to Hurt (BBC)
2. Heartstopper (Netflix)
3. The White Lotus (HBO)
4. Derry Girls (C4)
5. Hacks (HBO)
6. Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu)
7. Acapulco (Apple)
8. Ozark (Netflix)
9. His Dark Materials (BBC)
10. The Great (Hulu)

SINGLE:

1. Break My Soul - Beyoncé
2. Firebabe - Stormzy
3. Boyfriend - Dove Cameron
4. About Damn Time - Lizzo
5. Child of God - Chance the Rapper
6. Lift Me Up - Rihanna
7. Overthinking - Mabel & 24kGoldn
8. Oh My God - Adele
9. Bam Bam - Camila Cabello & Ed Sheeran
10. Psycho - Anne-Marie & Aitch

Critical Week: Watch the hands

Actual in-person screenings were back with a vengeance this week, after a recent slow stretch. And yes, it was great to settle into proper cinemas and screening rooms to watch movies on a big screen where they belong. Especially a film as visually astounding as Everything Everywhere All at Once, which stars Michelle Yeoh as a middle-aged woman thrown into parallel-reality craziness. Thankfully, the filmmakers remember that this is about real human emotions rather than wacky science. The big screen also helped with the lavishly designed Downton Abbey: A New Era, a return to the upstairs-downstairs drama with an enormous ensemble of likeable characters, each of whom somehow gets some good screen time. It's just what's expected, which is both comforting and a bit boring.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
Casablanca Beats • Firebird
The Feast • Vortex
ALL REVIEWS >

Elsewhere, Mark Wahlberg tells the inspiring true tale of boxer-turned-priest Father Stu. There's only a slight rough edge to what should be a more complex story. Sophie Marceau is terrific in I Love America, a gentle comedy about a French filmmaker who moves to California. And the Moroccan drama Casablanca Beats bristles with life as a rapper teaches a group of lively, politically engaged students to create music.

A little further afield, Nick Cave lets the cameras watch as he and Warren Ellis create music in the gorgeously shot documentary This Much I Know to Be True. Robert Bresson's masterful 1959 morality tale Pickpocket gets a pristine big-screen restoration. And the documentary White Hot: The Rise & Fall of Abercrombie & Fitch just about makes sense of the clothing brand's horrible history of employment prejudice, while completely missing the point of why the clothes were so popular (and perhaps aren't so much now).

This coming week features another long weekend, and I'll also be watching a range of films including Benedict Cumberbatch in Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, the Irish coming-of-age drama The Quiet Girl, the Danish black comedy Wild Men, the chilean romance The Sea, the Iranian drama Atabai, and the Palestinian bombing doc Eleven Days in May.