Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I never feel hugely confident about predicting the Oscars, mainly because I am always hoping for upsets. This year's race has been unusually tricky to predict, with distinct winners from the guilds, Bafta and various precursor awards. So this year I'll feel happy if I get my usual 15 out of 20 correct. I get to vote in several awards during the season, but here's who I'd vote for if I got my hands on an Oscar ballot, along with who I think will win, and who could sneak in and walk off with the prize...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front - Germany
Should win: The Quiet Girl - Ireland
Dark horse: Close - Belgium

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Should win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Navalny
Should win: All The Beauty and The Bloodshed
Dark horse: Fire of Love

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Dark horse: The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh
Dark horse: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Women Talking - Sarah Polley
Should win: Living - Kazuo Ishiguro
Dark horse: Glass Onion - Rian Johnson

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Serious contender: Cate Blanchett - Tár

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Austin Butler - Elvis
Should win: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Dark horse: Bill Nighy - Living

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should win: Hong Chau - The Whale
Dark horse: Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Babylon - Justin Hurwitz
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Volker Bertelmann

ORIGINAL SONG
Will / should win: Naatu Naatu, RRR - MM Keeravaani, Chandrabose
Dark horse: Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick - Lady Gaga, Bloodpop

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Elvis - Mandy Walker
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - James Friend

FILM EDITING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Paul Rogers

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Babylon - Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
Dark horse: Elvis - Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Elvis - Catherine Martin
Dark horse: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Ruth E Carter

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Avatar: The Way of Water - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Elvis - Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Aldo Signoretti
Dark horse: The Whale - Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley

SOUND
Will / should win: Top Gun: Maverick - Mark Weingarten, James Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte

Venezia79: Take in the scenery

The 79th Venice Film Festival moves into its final half with most of the big names under its belt. Stars still pop up everywhere. I watched Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson masterfully play the red carpet last night, while this morning I brushed past Penelope Cruz and Luis Tosar on their way into a press conference. Despite ongoing predictions of thunderstorms, the skies remain clear, so the sun is very hot. While some of the screening cinemas feel like an icy Arctic wind tunnel. My schedule slows down as the week goes on, but not quite yet. Here are some more highlights...

The Banshees of Inisherin
dir-scr Martin McDonagh; with Colin Farrell, Brendan Gleeson 22/Ire ****.
With its focus on seemingly tiny, inconsequential events, this witty Irish drama is a sometimes startlingly vivid look at human interaction. Writer-director Martin McDonagh has an uncanny ability to sharply capture the ways people connect in small communities, while echoing much larger themes. So the characters and situations in this often absurdly funny film have continually surprising textures and weight, with a literal civil war taking place in the distance. And the contained story at the centre is almost criminally satisfying.

When the Waves Are Gone [Kapag Wala Na Ang Mga Alon]
dir-scr Lav Diaz; with John Lloyd Cruz, Ronnie Lazaro 22/Ph ****.
Filipino maestro Lav Diaz takes on his nation's shift after the 2016 election of Rodrigo Duterte. Filming in his usual silvery black and white, this three-hour drama feels almost brisk by Diaz's standards, with an extended length that weaves various story threads together into a pointed odyssey. At its core this is a moving take of redemption that's unblinking about the self-proclaimed guardians of morality. And as the plot's thriller angle develops, the film tightens its grip.

In Viaggio
dir-scr Gianfranco Rosi; with Pope Francis 22/It ***.
While this looks like perhaps a glowing doc about Pope Francis, master documentarian Gianfranco Rosi is too clever to play his hand. Using only archival footage, the film follows the pontiff as he crisscrosses the globe spreading a message of hope and pleading for justice and peace. But the editing and juxtapositions suggest a darker, much more provocative truth. How an audience member reads this material will depend perhaps on their preconceptions. But open-minded viewers might be in for a thoughtful surprise.

Wolf and Dog  [Lobo e Cão]
dir-scr Claudia Varejao; with Ana Cabral, Ruben Pimenta 22/Por ****
Set in the Azores archipelago, this strikingly visual slice of life is artfully shot in Academy ratio by cinematographer Rui Xavier, capturing gorgeous colours and textures. And writer-director Claudia Varejao assembles the film in a way that feels almost accidental, capturing tiny moments that add up to tell a larger story. This means that the narrative feels meandering and elusive, with only a few sharply pointed events. But this also offers the space for us to put ourselves into the situations and consider our reactions.

Full reviews will be linked at Shadows VENICE FILM FESTIVAL page, eventually!