Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & Predictions

Once again, here are how I think things will go Sunday night at the 97th Academy Awards. This is one of the least predictable Oscar races in recent memory, with multiple categories too close to call. And I do love surprises and upsets! A couple of my notes here are risky, but here we are...

PICTURE
Will win: Conclave
Serious contender: Anora
Should win: A Complete Unknown

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will/should win: I'm Still Here
Dark horse: Emilia Perez

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Flow
Should win: The Wild Robot

DOCUMENTARY
Will/should win: No Other Land
Dark horse: Porcelain War

DIRECTING
Will win: Sean Baker - Anora
Serious contender: Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Should win: Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg
Serious contender: Anora - Sean Baker

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Conclave - Peter Straughan
Should win: Sing Sing - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Demi Moore - The Substance
Serious contender: Mikey Madison - Anora
Should win/dark horse: Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Serious contender: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Should win: Colman Domingo - Sing Sing

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will/should win: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Perez

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will/should win: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

FILM EDITING
Will win: Conclave - Nick Emerson
Should win: Anora - Sean Baker

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will/should win: The Brutalist - Lol Crawley

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg
Should win: The Wild Robot - Kris Bowers
Dark horse: Emilia Perez - Clement Ducol and Camille

ORIGINAL SONG
Will/should win: El Mal - Emilia Perez - Clement Ducol, Camille, Jacques Audiard

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will/should win: The Brutalist - Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia
Dark horse: Conclave - Suzie Davies, Cynthia Sleiter
[Winner: Wicked: Part I - Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales]

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Wicked: Part I - Paul Tazewell
Should win: A Complete Unknown - Arianne Phillips

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will/should win: The Substance - Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stephanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will/should win: Dune: Part Two - Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer
Dark horse: Wicked - Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, Paul Corbould

SOUND
Will win: Dune: Part Two - Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill
Should win: The Wild Robot - Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A Rizzo, Leff Lefferts

The Best of 2024: 44th Shadows Awards

As usual, here's a preview of my annual year-end lists - there is much, perhaps too much more on the site. It's just too hard to draw that line at 10. I saw fewer films in 2024 than in the previous several years, a conscious effort to slow down a bit while still aiming to catch all of the serious contenders. As always, I love movies that catch me off guard and demonstrate the power of cinema...

FAVOURITE FILM

1. 
   Kneecap (Rich Peppiatt)
2. The Wild Robot (Chris Sanders)
3. A Complete Unknown (James Mangold)
4. Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)
5. No Other Land (Basel Adra, Yuval Abraham, Hamdan Ballal, Rachel Szor)
6. Challengers (Luca Guadagnino)
7. La Chimera (Alice Rohrwacher)
8. Anora (Sean Baker)
9. The Brutalist (Brady Corbet)
10. The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

DIRECTOR

1. 
   Luca Guadagnino - Challengers, Queer
2. RaMell Ross - Nickel Boys
3. Coralie Fargeat - The Substance
4. Alice Rohrwacher - La Chimera
5. Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
6. Sean Baker - Anora
7. Payal Kapadia - All We Imagine as Light
8. Halina Reijn - Babygirl
9. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
10. Rose Glass - Love Lies Bleeding

SCREENWRITER

1. 
   Chris Sanders - The Wild Robot
2. Payal Kapadia - All We Imagine as Light
3. Megan Park - My Old Ass
4. Alice Rohrwacher - La Chimera
5. Rich Peppiatt - Kneecap
6. Levan Akin - Crossing
7. Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold - The Brutalist
8. James Mangold, Jay Cocks - A Complete Unknown
9. Sean Baker - Anora
10. Justin Kuritzkes - Challengers, Queer

ACTRESS

1. 
   Karla Sofía Gascón - Emilia Pérez
2. Demi Moore -The Substance
3. Mikey Madison - Anora
4. Mzia Arabuli - Crossing
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste - Hard Truths
6. Soheila Golestani - The Seed of the Sacred Fig
7. Amy Adams - Nightbitch
8. Florence Pugh - We Live in Time, Dune: Part Two
9. Nykiya Adams - Bird
10. Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here

ACTOR

1. 
   Sebastian Stan - A Different Man, The Apprentice
2. Colman Domingo - Sing Sing, Drive-Away Dolls
3. Timothée Chalamet - A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two
4. Payman Maadi - Opponent
5. Jesse Plemons - Kinds of Kindness, Civil War
6. Josh O'Connor - Challengers, La Chimera
7. Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
8. Nicholas Hoult - Nosferatu, Juror #2, The Order
9. Andrew Garfield - We Live in Time
10. Hugh Grant - Heretic, Paddington in Peru, Unfrosted

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. 
   Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
2. Isabella Rossellini - Conclave, La Chimera, Problemista
3. Lesley Manville - Queer
4. Isabelle Huppert - The Crime Is Mine, A Traveller's Needs
5. Margaret Qualley - Kinds of Kindness, The Substance, Drive-Away Dolls
6. Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown
7. Guslagie Malanda - The Beast
8. Ilça Moreno Zego - Ama Gloria
9. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys
10. Divya Prabha - All We Imagine as Light

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. 
   Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain
2. Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown
3. John Magaro - September 5, Day of the Fight
4. Marcel Otete Kabeya - Omen
5. Jonathan Bailey - Wicked: Part I
6. Guy Pearce - The Brutalist
7. Scoot McNairy - Nightbitch, A Complete Unknown, Speak No Evil, The Line
8. Clarence Maclin - Sing Sing
9. Yura Borisov - Anora
10. Fred Hechinger - Thelma, Nickel Boys, Gladiator II, Kraven the Hunter

WORST FILM

1. 
   Borderlands (Eli Roth)
2. The Garfield Movie (Mark Dindal)
3. Reagan (Sean McNamara)
4. The Exorcism (Joshua John Miller)
5. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Adam Wingard)
6. Strictly Confidential (Damian Hurley)
7. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (Kenji Kamiyama)
8. Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Adil El Arbi, Bilall Fallah)
9. Cellar Door (Vaughn Stein)
10. Beverly Hills Cop: Axel F (Mark Molloy)

TV SERIES

1. 
   Somebody Somewhere (Max)
2. Hacks 3 (Max)
3. The Bear 3 (FX)
4. Shogun (Hulu)
5. The Sympathizer (Max)
6. Fargo 5 (FX)
7. Disclaimer (Apple)
8. Jerrod Carmichael Reality Show (Max)
9. Ripley (Netflix)
10. Only Murders in the Building 4 (Hulu)

SINGLES

1. 
   APT. - Rosé & Bruno Mars
2. Lose Control - Teddy Swims
3. Beautiful Things - Benson Boone
4. A Bar Sony (Tipsy) - Shaboozey
5. Good Luck, Babe! - Chappell Roan
6. Kiss the Sky - Maren Morris
7. Illusion - Dua Lipa
8. Too Sweet - Hozier
9. Birds of a Feather - Billie Eilish
10. Espresso - Sabrina Carpenter