Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & predictions

This has been considered one of the most volatile awards seasons in memory, as the buzz has been continually shifting around who might be in line to take home Oscars. There are a couple of sure things for the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday night, but the most important precursors -- Bafta, PGA, SAG -- didn't agree in many categories. Watching the ceremony, I always love an upset, so those will get my loudest cheers. Here's who I think will, should and could win [with winners in bold after the fact]...

PICTURE
Will/should win: Sinners
Could win: One Battle After Another

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will win: Sentimental Value
Could win: It Was Just an Accident
Should win: Sirat
Dark horse: The Secret Agent

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will/should win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could win: Zootopia 2

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could win: Mr Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: Come See Me in the Good Light
Dark horse: The Alabama Solution

ACTRESS
Will/should win: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

ACTOR
Will/should win: Michael B Jordan - Sinners
Could win: Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
Dark horses: Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon / Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will/should win: Amy Madigan - Weapons
Could win: Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another 

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another 
Could win: Delroy Lindo - Sinners 
Should win: Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value  

DIRECTOR
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Could/should win: Ryan Coogler - Sinners

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson
Could/should win: Hamnet - Chloe Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: Sinners - Ryan Coogler
Could win: Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt

CASTING
Will win: Sinners - Francine Maisler
Could/should win: The Secret Agent - Gabriel Domingues
[Winner: One Battle After Another - Cassandra Kulukundis]

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Sinners - Ludwig Goransson
Could win: One Battle After Another - Jonny Greenwood
Should win: Hamnet - Max Richter

ORIGINAL SONG
Will/should win: Golden - KPop Demon Hunters - Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo, Teddy Park

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: One Battle After Another - Michael Bauman
Should win: Sinners - Autumn Durald Arkapaw

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sinners - Michael Shawver
Could/should win: One Battle After Another - Andy Jurgensen

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will/should win: Frankenstein - Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Frankenstein - Kate Hawley
Should win: Sinners - Ruth E Carter

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Frankenstein - Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey
Should win: Kokuho - Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will/should win: Avatar: Fire and Ash - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

SOUND
Will win: Sinners - Chris Welcker, Benjamin A Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, Steve Boeddeker
Could win: F1 - Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A Rizzo, Juan Peralta
Should win: Sirat - Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas

Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & Predictions

Once again, here are how I think things will go Sunday night at the 97th Academy Awards. This is one of the least predictable Oscar races in recent memory, with multiple categories too close to call. And I do love surprises and upsets! A couple of my notes here are risky, but here we are...

PICTURE
Will win: Conclave
Serious contender: Anora
Should win: A Complete Unknown

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will/should win: I'm Still Here
Dark horse: Emilia Perez

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Flow
Should win: The Wild Robot

DOCUMENTARY
Will/should win: No Other Land
Dark horse: Porcelain War

DIRECTING
Will win: Sean Baker - Anora
Serious contender: Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Should win: Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg
Serious contender: Anora - Sean Baker

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Conclave - Peter Straughan
Should win: Sing Sing - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Demi Moore - The Substance
Serious contender: Mikey Madison - Anora
Should win/dark horse: Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Serious contender: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Should win: Colman Domingo - Sing Sing

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will/should win: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Perez

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will/should win: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

FILM EDITING
Will win: Conclave - Nick Emerson
Should win: Anora - Sean Baker

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will/should win: The Brutalist - Lol Crawley

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg
Should win: The Wild Robot - Kris Bowers
Dark horse: Emilia Perez - Clement Ducol and Camille

ORIGINAL SONG
Will/should win: El Mal - Emilia Perez - Clement Ducol, Camille, Jacques Audiard

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will/should win: The Brutalist - Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia
Dark horse: Conclave - Suzie Davies, Cynthia Sleiter
[Winner: Wicked: Part I - Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales]

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Wicked: Part I - Paul Tazewell
Should win: A Complete Unknown - Arianne Phillips

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will/should win: The Substance - Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stephanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will/should win: Dune: Part Two - Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer
Dark horse: Wicked - Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, Paul Corbould

SOUND
Will win: Dune: Part Two - Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill
Should win: The Wild Robot - Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A Rizzo, Leff Lefferts

Critical Week: Oscar night 2016

The Oscars were handed out on Sunday night in a brisk Hollywood ceremony hosted by Chris Rock, who gave the event an #OscarsSoWhite theme. That felt a bit much at times, because the important point was made so forcefully right at the top of the show. There was far too focus on specifically black issues, which sidelined the inequality in other ethnicities, plus gender and sexuality. The LGBT audience was insulted when Anohi wasn't invited to perform her nominated song. Even worse was the sexist parade of scantily clad women as The Weeknd performed his song. So while racism was positively addressed, there's still a long way to go before Hollywood properly confronts diversity.

At least that theme gave the ceremony its only jaw-dropping moment, when Stacey Dash appeared to wish everyone a "happy Black History Month". Mainly the show played it very, very safe, only livened up by anarchic comics like Sarah Silverman and Louis CK. And of course Sacha Baron Cohen seriously going for broke as he introduced a Best Picture nominee in character as the ridiculous Ali G. Honestly, it seems like Oscar's ratings problem is that the ceremony is completely lacking in these kind of entertainingly bonkers moments. (Why do pundits always call awkward moments the "worst" bits of the show? They're always the only thing you remember!) And the truth is that its the fast-paced parade of no-nonsense awards presenting in minor categories that makes viewers tune out. Next year, bring back Rob Lowe and Snow White.

Awards-wise there were a few surprises, with a handful of upsets including Sam Smith's win for his Spectre theme and Ex Machina's visual effects triumph. Two other deserving surprises caused me to shout out loud: Mark Rylance for Supporting Actor and Spotlight for Best Picture. My other big cheer came when the gorgeous Stutterer won for Live-Action Short. Director Ben Cleary and producer Serena Armitage came along to two events I hosted as chair of the London Critics' Circle Film Awards: our nominations announcement event in December and our ceremony in January, where they won the Short Film prize.

I watched the Academy Awards at the official Oscar London event, a live all-night telecast in a cinema with a crowd of industry people cheering on their friends. It was almost like being at the ceremony itself, even if we were watching the show from 1.30 to 5am! As always on Oscar night, I went to bed as the sun was coming up.

As for films I watched over the past week, the screening line-up included the gorgeous Foreign-Language Oscar winner Son of Saul, Sacha Baron Cohen's mixed gross-out action comedy Grimsby, the devastating Ibsen-based Aussie drama The Daughter, the oddly mannered relationship-collapse drama Like You Mean It, and the wonderful film-fan-catnip documentary Hitchcock/Truffaut.

This coming week's screenings include Gerard Butler's sequel London Has Fallen, the drone thriller Eye in the Sky, Tom Hiddleston as Hank Williams in I Saw the Light, the animated sequel Kung Fu Panda 3, the period drama Marguerite and the short film collection Mexican Men.

Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: my annual list of hopes and fears about Sunday night's 88th Academy Awards ceremony. I'll be watching the show live in central London all night (it starts at 1.30am London time and finishes as the sun comes up) with the smartly dressed Oscar crowd! As always, I will be hoping for upsets, political statements and surprises. If Iñárritu's The Revenant wins everything this year, as Iñárritu's Birdman did last year, it will just be boring. Here's how I think it'll go, and what I want to happen. Obviously, this is just guesswork...

Best Picture
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Spotlight
Dark horse: Mad Max: Fury Road

Foreign Language Film
Will / should win: Son of Saul (Hungary)
Could win: Mustang (France)
Dark horse: Theeb (Jordan)

Animated Feature
Will win: Inside Out
Should win: Anomalisa

Documentary Feature
Will win: Amy
Should win: The Look of Silence

Director
Will win: Alejandro G Iñárritu, The Revenant
Should win: Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Deserving upset: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Actress
Will win: Brie Larson, Room
Should win: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Actor
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Dark horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Supporting Actress
Will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Could win: Rooney Mara, Carol
Dark horse: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Supporting Actor
Will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Big Short, Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
Should win: Carol, Phyllis Nagy
Could win: Brooklyn, Nick Hornby

Original Screenplay
Will / should win: Spotlight, Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy

Cinematography
Will win: The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
Should win: Carol, Edward Lachman
Dark horse: Sicario, Roger Deakins

Original Score
Will win: The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
Should win: Sicario, Jóhann Jóhannsson

Original Song
Will win: Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Should win: Manta Ray, Racing Extinction

Film Editing
Will win: The Revenant, Stephen Mirrione
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Margaret Sixel

Production Design
Will / should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: The Revenant

Costume Design
Will win: Carol, Sandy Powell
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Jenny Beaven

Makeup & Hairstyling
Will / should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Sicario
Could win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: The Martian
Could win: The Revenant

Visual Effects
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: Ex Machina

Critical Week: All rise

Yes, the big movie this week for critics was the sequel 300: Rise of an Empire, which isn't much of an improvement on the simplistic original film, but fans who like these kinds of effects-based romps (and screens full of almost naked men) will love it. A little further from the mainstream, Hair Brained is a young-genius-at-university comedy that has surprising depth, while Stephen Sommers' Odd Thomas is a quirky comedy-thriller that gets under the skin. There were also two animated features: Hayao Miyazaki's astounding Oscar-nominated animated biopic The Wind Rises, a proper movie with real characters and situations that makes Hollywood studios' formulaic animation and plotting look rather pathetic. And the Spanish animated feature Wrinkles is equally grown-up with its engaging story of pensioners bored with life in a nursing home.

It was also a week for documentaries, including the Oscar-winning Twenty Feet From Stardom, the fiercely uplifting story of iconic background singers that also takes an intriguing look at civil rights. Also Oscar-nominated, Dirty Wars takes a much gloomier look at America, revealing the dark truth about the president's black-ops programme. It's honest and razor sharp, never rabble-rousing and yet deeply depressing. Errol Morris' haunting The Unknown Known also delves into the halls of power as it interviews Donald Rumsfeld about his two controversial stints as defence secretary. And Bridegroom tells a staggeringly involving personal story that touches on America's current inequalities. Equally empowering but without being grim, Next Goal Wins follows the loveable but perpetually losing ragtag American Samoa football team to a historic first victory.

Sunday night's Oscars delivered no surprises (I only missed one prediction), even if most categories could have gone multiple ways. The ceremony itself was good fun, with Ellen's hilarious audience participation antics (serving pizza and taking this twitter-busting selfie) and some marvellously rambling thank yous (Jared Leto gave the best speech). But the "Heroes" theme didn't resonate at all, Will Smith was a strange let-down to present Best Picture (where was George Clooney when we needed him?), and aside from Pharrell's deliriously Happy opening number, the music was eerily downbeat, scraping the bottom of the barrel by dragging lovely Bette Midler out to sing her exhausted Wind Beneath My Wings. Otherwise, it was a great night, capped by Steve McQueen's jubilant, deserving triumph.

This coming week's screenings include Michael Fassbender in Frank, Viggo Mortensen in The Two Faces of January, Todd Sklar's black comedy Awful Nice, the festival favourite Cheap Thrills, the animated Zebra romp Khumba and the bio-doc The Punk Singer. Among other things...

Oscar night: out on a limb

Here are my hopes and expectations for the big ceremony on Sunday in Los Angeles. For the first time in about four years, I'll be in London watching through the night - the ceremony runs roughly from 2am to 6am, with Best Picture awarded just as the sun is coming up.

This year's awards race has been the strangest in ages, with no runaway favourite. Most but not all of the categories have someone who is odds-on to win (Supporting Actor is the hardest to predict), but Oscar voters have a way of confounding expectations. So as always I'm cheering for upsets...

P I C T U R E
Will win: Argo
Should/could win: Life of Pi
Also quite possible: Lincoln
Dark horse: Silver Linings Playbook

D I R E C T O R
Will/should win: Ang Lee
Possible: Steven Spielberg
Dark horse: Michael Haneke

A C T R E S S
Will/should win: Jennifer Lawrence
Very possible: Emmanuelle Riva
Dark horse: Jessica Chastain

A C T O R
Will/should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Possible: Hugh Jackman
Dark horse: Bradley Cooper

S U P P O R T I N G    A C T R E S S
Will/should win: Anne Hathaway
Possible: Sally Field

S U P P O R T I N G    A C T O R
Will/should win: Alan Arkin
Very possible: Tommy Lee Jones or Christoph Waltz
Dark horse: Robert De Niro

O R I G I N A L    S C R E E N P L A Y
Will/should win: Django Unchained
Possible: Zero Dark Thirty
Dark horse: Amour

A D A P T E D    S C R E E N P L A Y
Will win: Argo
Should/could win: Lincoln
Dark horses: Life of Pi or Silver Linings Playbook

F O R E I G N    F I L M
Will/should win: Amour
Dark horse: A Royal Affair
(NB. I haven't seen War Witch or Kon-Tiki in this category)

D O C U M E N T A R Y
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should/could win: How to Survive a Plague
Dark horse: The Gatekeepers

A N I M A T E D   F E A T U R E
Will/should win: Frankenweenie
Very possible: Wreck-it Ralph
Dark horses: Brave or ParaNorman