Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: my annual list of hopes and fears about Sunday night's 88th Academy Awards ceremony. I'll be watching the show live in central London all night (it starts at 1.30am London time and finishes as the sun comes up) with the smartly dressed Oscar crowd! As always, I will be hoping for upsets, political statements and surprises. If Iñárritu's The Revenant wins everything this year, as Iñárritu's Birdman did last year, it will just be boring. Here's how I think it'll go, and what I want to happen. Obviously, this is just guesswork...

Best Picture
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Spotlight
Dark horse: Mad Max: Fury Road

Foreign Language Film
Will / should win: Son of Saul (Hungary)
Could win: Mustang (France)
Dark horse: Theeb (Jordan)

Animated Feature
Will win: Inside Out
Should win: Anomalisa

Documentary Feature
Will win: Amy
Should win: The Look of Silence

Director
Will win: Alejandro G Iñárritu, The Revenant
Should win: Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Deserving upset: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Actress
Will win: Brie Larson, Room
Should win: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Actor
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Dark horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Supporting Actress
Will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Could win: Rooney Mara, Carol
Dark horse: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Supporting Actor
Will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Big Short, Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
Should win: Carol, Phyllis Nagy
Could win: Brooklyn, Nick Hornby

Original Screenplay
Will / should win: Spotlight, Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy

Cinematography
Will win: The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
Should win: Carol, Edward Lachman
Dark horse: Sicario, Roger Deakins

Original Score
Will win: The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
Should win: Sicario, Jóhann Jóhannsson

Original Song
Will win: Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Should win: Manta Ray, Racing Extinction

Film Editing
Will win: The Revenant, Stephen Mirrione
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Margaret Sixel

Production Design
Will / should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: The Revenant

Costume Design
Will win: Carol, Sandy Powell
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Jenny Beaven

Makeup & Hairstyling
Will / should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Sicario
Could win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: The Martian
Could win: The Revenant

Visual Effects
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: Ex Machina

Critical Week: Bafta night 2016

It was a Valentine's theme for this year's Baftas, as the British Academy Film Awards fell on February 14th. The ceremony was eerily subdued, with host Stephen Fry engaging in the same witty erudition he has used in 10 previous ceremonies. There were no musical performances this year to break the monotony, and only a few memorable moments (Rebel Wilson's speech was the comedy highlight). Valentine's touches included an opening Kiss Cam, which yielded the unexpected sight of Leonardo DiCaprio locking lips with Maggie Smith. And Leo reunited with his Titanic costar Kate Winslet - both were winners (above).

Speaking of which, awards themselves took a fairly predictable route, with only a few mild surprises. The Revenant nabbed five (film, director, actor, cinematography, sound); Mad Max: Fury Road won four (costumes, editing, production design, makeup/hair); and Star Wars: The Force Awakens won two (visual effects and rising star for John Boyega, below). The other prizes were scattered between Room, Steve Jobs, Bridge of Spies, Spotlight, The Big Short, Brooklyn, The Hateful Eight, Amy, Inside Out, Theeb and Wild Tales.

Frankly, the Bafta ceremony needs a shake-up. First, find a new host who can bring some fresh attitude and a spin on the usual format. Second, broadcast the entire ceremony live rather than on a tape delay with a third of the categories left out. In the Instagram age, the winners are all public knowledge before the show airs, so this archaic approach from the BBC is simply absurd, and it belittles Bafta's impact.


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C R I T I C A L   W E E K

As for films I saw this past week, the biggest was Zoolander 2, a sequel just as silly as the original, which means that it feels like a disappointment. But I laughed. The best of the week was Sing Street, the latest hugely involving music-infused drama from the brilliant John Carney (Once, Begin Again), this time set in mid-80s Dublin. Terrence Malick's Knight of Cups is an evocative, kaleidoscopic exploration of the emptiness of fame. Strikingly photographed and played (by Christian Bale, Cate Blanchett and Natalie Portman, among others), it feels oddly lacking in insight. Richard Gere is a mopey homeless man in Oren Moverman's beautifully observed but painfully slow Time Out of Mind. And the inventively stylised Belgian drama The Brand New Testament takes a witty premise (God is alive and living in Brussels) and spins it into something involving and thought-provoking.

This coming week we get to catch up with the Coen brothers' all-star Hollywood comedy Hail, Caesar, Robin Williams' final drama Boulevard and the British heist movie Golden Years, among others.

36th London Critics' Circle Film Awards: in words and pictures

The UK's top film critics held their annual awards ceremony on Sunday night at The May Fair Hotel in London, with a superb lineup of red carpet guests. I happen to be the chair of the 36th London Critics' Circle Film Awards, which we started organising back in June, so it was great to see the evening unfold in such a joyous, celebratory way. The most memorable moment (pictured above) was when Kate Winslet led the audience into a spontaneous standing ovation for beloved actor-filmmaker Alan Rickman, who died on Thursday.

The ceremony was hosted by comic Robin Ince (left), who stepped in at the last minute due to the sudden illness of one of our planned host. He balanced the mood perfectly, with a witty look at movies that included a number of hilarious Brian Blessed anecdotes. On the right are nominated writer Emma Donoghue (Room) and the Critics' Circle Film Section Chair Anna Smith.

We had a new award this year. First, we handed out our inaugural prize for British/Irish Short Film of the Year, which went to Ben Cleary (left) and his lovely, and now Oscar-nominated, short Stutterer. And we rebranded our British/Irish Breakthrough Filmmaker prize as The Philip French Award, in honour of our esteemed colleague who passed away this year. It went to John Maclean (right) for Slow West.

Of course, Kate Winslet was one of the brightest stars on our red carpet, and she also took home the award for Supporting Actress of the Year for Steve Jobs. She also had a mini reunion with Judi Dench - they both played Iris Murdoch in Iris.

Maisie Williams won the Young British/Irish Performer of the Year award, and livened up the red carpet in her Mexican-wrestler themed dress, accompanied by fellow nominee Florence Pugh (left), her costar in The Falling. Along for the party were actor Blake Harrison and his fiancee Kerry (right).

Producer Sygne Byrge Sorensen (left) collected the Foreign-Language Film of the Year award for Joshua Oppenheimer's documentary The Look of Silence, while top producer Stephen Woolley (right) accepted the Technical Achievement Award for Ed Lachman's cinematography in Carol.

Two directors accepted awards on behalf of their actors. Rufus Norris (left) read a thank you message from Tom Hardy, who was named British/Irish Actor of the Year for his body of work in 2015, including Norris' London Road, The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road and Legend. And Brooklyn director John Crowley (right) relayed a hilarious thank you from Saoirse Ronan as British/Irish Actress of the Year.

Andrew Haigh (left) sent a video thank you for British/Irish Film of the Year for 45 Years. Producer Tristan Goligher took to the stage to grab the trophy. Meanwhile, Asif Kapadia (right) was on hand to collect the Documentary of the Year award for Amy.

Mark Rylance sent a surreal video to accept Supporting Actor of the Year, performed in character (left) from the set of the play he's doing in Boston. His Wolf Hall costar Thomas Brodie-Sangster (right) accepted the award for him.

And then there was George Miller, who sent two witty videos to gratefully accept the top awards for Director of the Year and Film of the Year for Mad Max: Fury Road.

And the ceremony wrapped up with the main event of the night, as Judi Dench took to the stage to present the Dilys Powell Award for Excellence in Film to Kenneth Branagh. Both gave smart, gracious speeches that had the audience laughing and sighing.

Of course, I also have to shamelessly include two collages of photos that I appear in. As chair, one of my many jobs is to welcome all of our guests at the top of the red carpet, so I had a chance to talk with each of them before the event started. Below is a rather ridiculous photobombing session with Dame Judi and Sir Ken.

And I also feel I should share this series of photographs taken while I was chatting to Kate Winslet about the last time I saw her (when she was about to pop with her third child) and her next movie, Triple 9 - I saw it last week but she hasn't seen it yet. Of course she's awesome in it.

And to drop one more name, as I made my way home following the after-party, I received a lovely email from Tom Hardy, who was deeply apologetic that he had been unable to turn up to accept his award and join the party. He's shooting a film in London at the moment, and production ran over. Hopefully he'll make it next year.

Critical Week: Take the desert by storm

Films don't get much bigger than Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller's return to the franchise 30 years after Thunderdome. Starring Tom Hardy in the title role (that's him as the grille ornament in the photo above), it's a roaringly entertaining action thriller with startling emotional and thematic depth. Speaking of which, Arnold Schwarzenegger delivers an unusually deep performance in Maggie, an involving father-daughter drama with zombie overtones. And Rupert Everett and Emily Watson play the king and queen in the comedy romp A Royal Night Out, an engaging film that's loosely based on real events in London 70 years ago this week.

Further afield, British critics are finally catching up with Song of the Sea, the stunningly beautiful Oscar-nominated Irish adventure based on local mythology. Second Coming is a low-key British drama starring Idris Elba that feels like it only has enough of a plot for a short, but is very nicely made. From Spain, Marshland is a sharply well-shot serial killer drama that's involving but a little dry. And I also caught up with The Last of Robin Hood, an involving drama directed by Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland (Still Alice), which stars Kevin Kline in a story about the final months of of Errol Flynn's life.

Special screenings this week included Magician: The Astonishing Life and Work of Orson Welles, Chuck Workman's superb doc, screened to the press on Welles' actual 100th birthday to launch the BFI's summer season featuring his films and lots of rare material. And one evening I headed to the Soho Revue Gallery for a screening of the short film Eleanor, an ambitious project starring Ruth Wilson that shows on three screens and carries quite an internalised kick (MY SHORT REVIEW).

This coming week we have George Clooney in the Disney epic Tomorrowland, Al Pacino in Danny Collins, Dustin Hoffman in The Choir, Peter Bogdanovich's comedy She's Funny That Way, the acclaimed horror Unhallowed Ground, the indie sci-fi thriller Infini and the Oscar-nominated doc The Salt of the Earth.