Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & Predictions

As usual, I am more about my picks than my predictions, as I always want someone unexpected to win. This year's winners seem to be predestined, as the same people have walked off with trophies at ceremony after ceremony. So let's hope Oscar voters go against the grain just a little bit. Here's my annual list of who I think will win, and also who I think deserves to get the prize...

PICTURE

Will win: Oppenheimer - Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
Should win: Past Lives
- David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler
Dark horse: Anatomy of a Fall - Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
Darker horse: The Holdovers - Mark Johnson

INTERNATIONAL FILM

Will / should win: The Zone of Interest
- James Wilson 
Dark horse: Perfect Days - Koji Yanai, Wim Wenders, Takuma Takasaki

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Kemp Powers, Justin K Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal
Should win: The Boy and the Heron - Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
- Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, Raney Aronson-Rath
Should win: The Eternal Memory - Maite Alberdi, Juan de Dios Larrain, Pablo Larrain

DIRECTING

Will win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Should win: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet & Arthur Harari
Should win: Past Lives - Celine Song
Dark horse: The Holdovers - David Hemingson

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: American Fiction - Cord Jefferson

Should win: Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach 

Serious contender: Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Will win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall

Serious contender: Emma Stone - Poor Things

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Will / should win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Dark horse: Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will / should win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will win: Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
Should win: Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Dark horse: Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: Oppenheimer - Ludwig Goransson
Should win: Poor Things - Jerskin Fendrix

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: What Was I Made For? - Barbie - Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
Should win: I'm Just Ken - Barbie - Billie Eilish, Finneas O'Connell

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will / should win: Oppenheimer - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING

Will win: Oppenheimer - Jennifer Lame
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall - Laurent Senechal

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will / should win: Barbie - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

Dark horse: Poor Things - James Price, Shona Heath, Zsuzsa Mihalek

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: Poor Things - Holly Waddington
Should win: Barbie - Jacqueline Durran

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will / should win: The Creator - Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, Neil Corbould
Dark horse: Godzilla Minus One - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, Tatsuji Nojima

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will / should win: Poor Things - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, Josh Weston

SOUND

Will / should win: The Zone of Interest
- Tarn Willers, Johnnie Burn
Dark horse: Oppenheimer - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A Rizzo, Kevin O'Connell

Critical Week: Let them eat cake

It was a party at the gala UK premiere of the romantic comedy Red, White & Royal Blue, an Amazon Prime movie at BFI Imax, the biggest screen in Europe. Representing the film was director Matthew Lopez, who made a statement in solidarity of striking actors and his fellow writers. So lead actors Nicholas Galitzine and Taylor Zakhar Perez (above) couldn't attend, although Perez offered a video introduction (preceded with a note that it was recorded pre-strike). The audience was a rather lively mix of critics and influencers bathed in red light while we waited for the movie to start. And it's a lot of fun: charming and goofy and just a bit pointed too.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
Talk to Me • Baato
Bobi Wine: The People's President
Boys on Film 23: Dangerous to Know
ALL REVIEWS >

Last Friday, I bought a ticket to see Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer in 70mm (Universal had refused to allow me into the 70mm Imax press screenings). It's a glorious epic, as expertly assembled as expected, staggeringly visual and beautifully performed by a powerhouse ensemble. Even if it's a bit overlong, it's essential viewing. 

Other films this week included the moving and inventive French drama Smalltown Boys, the exhilarating if slightly awkward Malaysian action thriller Walid, the beautifully animated adventure Mavka: The Forest Song from Ukraine, the gorgeously shot Nepal migration doc Baato, and Boys on Film 23: Dangerous to Know, another excellent collection of provocative short films from the fine folk at Peccadillo.

This coming week I'll be watching Jason Statham in Meg 2: The Trench, Orlando Bloom in Gran Turismo, the animated Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mania, the thriller Till Death Do Us Part, the black comedy The Trouble With Jessica, the action comedy Polite Society and the doc Rock Hudson: All That Heaven Allowed.