Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & Predictions

As usual, I am more about my picks than my predictions, as I always want someone unexpected to win. This year's winners seem to be predestined, as the same people have walked off with trophies at ceremony after ceremony. So let's hope Oscar voters go against the grain just a little bit. Here's my annual list of who I think will win, and also who I think deserves to get the prize...

PICTURE

Will win: Oppenheimer - Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
Should win: Past Lives
- David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler
Dark horse: Anatomy of a Fall - Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
Darker horse: The Holdovers - Mark Johnson

INTERNATIONAL FILM

Will / should win: The Zone of Interest
- James Wilson 
Dark horse: Perfect Days - Koji Yanai, Wim Wenders, Takuma Takasaki

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Kemp Powers, Justin K Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal
Should win: The Boy and the Heron - Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
- Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, Raney Aronson-Rath
Should win: The Eternal Memory - Maite Alberdi, Juan de Dios Larrain, Pablo Larrain

DIRECTING

Will win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Should win: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet & Arthur Harari
Should win: Past Lives - Celine Song
Dark horse: The Holdovers - David Hemingson

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: American Fiction - Cord Jefferson

Should win: Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach 

Serious contender: Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Will win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall

Serious contender: Emma Stone - Poor Things

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Will / should win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Dark horse: Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will / should win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will win: Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
Should win: Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Dark horse: Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: Oppenheimer - Ludwig Goransson
Should win: Poor Things - Jerskin Fendrix

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: What Was I Made For? - Barbie - Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
Should win: I'm Just Ken - Barbie - Billie Eilish, Finneas O'Connell

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will / should win: Oppenheimer - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING

Will win: Oppenheimer - Jennifer Lame
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall - Laurent Senechal

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will / should win: Barbie - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

Dark horse: Poor Things - James Price, Shona Heath, Zsuzsa Mihalek

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: Poor Things - Holly Waddington
Should win: Barbie - Jacqueline Durran

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will / should win: The Creator - Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, Neil Corbould
Dark horse: Godzilla Minus One - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, Tatsuji Nojima

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will / should win: Poor Things - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, Josh Weston

SOUND

Will / should win: The Zone of Interest
- Tarn Willers, Johnnie Burn
Dark horse: Oppenheimer - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A Rizzo, Kevin O'Connell

Critical Week: Pretty in pink

Screenings are back in full swing now, alongside continuing awards-season events, so there's plenty to watch out there these days. As a voter, it was nice to have a link to watch the Golden Globes live on Sunday, even if it finished at 4am London time. I enjoyed seeing the results of the all-new voting base, journalists scattered across some 75 countries who don't follow the usual Hollywood script. And the feed I was watching kept running during the ad breaks, so it was cool to watch the astonishing array of stars schmoozing and playing around before being called back to their seats. Now I have three weeks to finalise plans for the London critics awards, where we hope to have plenty of big names in the room to celebrate.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
Soul • Poor Things
ALL REVIEWS >

As for the movies, the big screening this week was for the musical remake of Mean Girls, which is essentially the same movie with added music video-style songs and references to social media. Some of this works nicely, but it feels a little uneven. Race for Glory: Audi vs Lancia is a rather dry tale of rivalry between German and Italian car companies, livened up by a solid cast and a bit of racing action. The 90s-set New York drama You Can't Stay Here makes up for its low budget with some big underlying ideas and cool cinematic references. The British arthouse drama Silver Haze is relentlessly miserable, but shows some visual style. And the documentary Werner Herzog: Radical Dreamer is fascinating for both fans and potential fans, but surprisingly straightforward.

This coming week I'll be watching Viggo Mortensen in Eureka, British thriller Jackdaw, award-winning British drama Gassed Up, Swedish refugee drama Opponent, Italian romance Fireworks and offbeat comedy The Civil Dead.