Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & Predictions

As usual, I am more about my picks than my predictions, as I always want someone unexpected to win. This year's winners seem to be predestined, as the same people have walked off with trophies at ceremony after ceremony. So let's hope Oscar voters go against the grain just a little bit. Here's my annual list of who I think will win, and also who I think deserves to get the prize...

PICTURE

Will win: Oppenheimer - Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
Should win: Past Lives
- David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler
Dark horse: Anatomy of a Fall - Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
Darker horse: The Holdovers - Mark Johnson

INTERNATIONAL FILM

Will / should win: The Zone of Interest
- James Wilson 
Dark horse: Perfect Days - Koji Yanai, Wim Wenders, Takuma Takasaki

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Kemp Powers, Justin K Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal
Should win: The Boy and the Heron - Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
- Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, Raney Aronson-Rath
Should win: The Eternal Memory - Maite Alberdi, Juan de Dios Larrain, Pablo Larrain

DIRECTING

Will win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Should win: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet & Arthur Harari
Should win: Past Lives - Celine Song
Dark horse: The Holdovers - David Hemingson

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: American Fiction - Cord Jefferson

Should win: Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach 

Serious contender: Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Will win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall

Serious contender: Emma Stone - Poor Things

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Will / should win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Dark horse: Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will / should win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will win: Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
Should win: Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Dark horse: Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: Oppenheimer - Ludwig Goransson
Should win: Poor Things - Jerskin Fendrix

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: What Was I Made For? - Barbie - Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
Should win: I'm Just Ken - Barbie - Billie Eilish, Finneas O'Connell

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will / should win: Oppenheimer - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING

Will win: Oppenheimer - Jennifer Lame
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall - Laurent Senechal

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will / should win: Barbie - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

Dark horse: Poor Things - James Price, Shona Heath, Zsuzsa Mihalek

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: Poor Things - Holly Waddington
Should win: Barbie - Jacqueline Durran

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will / should win: The Creator - Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, Neil Corbould
Dark horse: Godzilla Minus One - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, Tatsuji Nojima

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will / should win: Poor Things - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, Josh Weston

SOUND

Will / should win: The Zone of Interest
- Tarn Willers, Johnnie Burn
Dark horse: Oppenheimer - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A Rizzo, Kevin O'Connell

Critical Week: Hey, bruv

I've been busy this week organising the forthcoming London Critics' Circle Awards, and also voting in both Online Film Critics Society awards and the Dorian Awards. And we also had the Bafta Film Awards nominations today, which is the biggest awards alongside the Oscars. Those nominations come next week. So there's been plenty to do along with watching a few movies... 

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
The End We Start From
The Holdovers • The Kitchen
ALL REVIEWS >

The British drama Gassed Up won the audience award at the London Film Festival, and is a stylish and impressively made film until it's taken over by a standard crime thriller. The cast is packed with rising stars, led by Stephen Odubola. Another British thriller was also very slickly made: Jackdaw stars Oliver Jackson-Cohen as a motocross rider who gets entangled with a crime boss who happens to be his estranged father. Strong performances make it enjoyable, including a tough Jenna Coleman and a scene-chewing Thomas Turgoose. 

More highbrow, the Swedish drama Opponent stars the always excellent Peyman Maadi as an Iranian refugee grappling with his inner demons. The charming Italian romance Fireworks gets very dark indeed as it explores prejudice in a 1980s small-town. And the offbeat comedy The Civil Dead playfully subverts the ghost story genre with its likeably sad sack characters

This coming week is also a bit slower than usual at the cinema, but I have a lot to do. I'll be watching three British films: Ian McShane in American Star, Diana Quick in Forever Young, and the offbeat drama-documentary hybrid This Blessed Plot. And I have two stage shows to cover as well.