Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & predictions

This has been considered one of the most volatile awards seasons in memory, as the buzz has been continually shifting around who might be in line to take home Oscars. There are a couple of sure things for the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday night, but the most important precursors -- Bafta, PGA, SAG -- didn't agree in many categories. Watching the ceremony, I always love an upset, so those will get my loudest cheers. Here's who I think will, should and could win [with winners in bold after the fact]...

PICTURE
Will/should win: Sinners
Could win: One Battle After Another

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will win: Sentimental Value
Could win: It Was Just an Accident
Should win: Sirat
Dark horse: The Secret Agent

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will/should win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could win: Zootopia 2

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could win: Mr Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: Come See Me in the Good Light
Dark horse: The Alabama Solution

ACTRESS
Will/should win: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

ACTOR
Will/should win: Michael B Jordan - Sinners
Could win: Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
Dark horses: Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon / Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will/should win: Amy Madigan - Weapons
Could win: Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another 

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another 
Could win: Delroy Lindo - Sinners 
Should win: Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value  

DIRECTOR
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Could/should win: Ryan Coogler - Sinners

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson
Could/should win: Hamnet - Chloe Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: Sinners - Ryan Coogler
Could win: Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt

CASTING
Will win: Sinners - Francine Maisler
Could/should win: The Secret Agent - Gabriel Domingues
[Winner: One Battle After Another - Cassandra Kulukundis]

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Sinners - Ludwig Goransson
Could win: One Battle After Another - Jonny Greenwood
Should win: Hamnet - Max Richter

ORIGINAL SONG
Will/should win: Golden - KPop Demon Hunters - Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo, Teddy Park

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: One Battle After Another - Michael Bauman
Should win: Sinners - Autumn Durald Arkapaw

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sinners - Michael Shawver
Could/should win: One Battle After Another - Andy Jurgensen

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will/should win: Frankenstein - Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Frankenstein - Kate Hawley
Should win: Sinners - Ruth E Carter

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Frankenstein - Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey
Should win: Kokuho - Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will/should win: Avatar: Fire and Ash - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

SOUND
Will win: Sinners - Chris Welcker, Benjamin A Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, Steve Boeddeker
Could win: F1 - Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A Rizzo, Juan Peralta
Should win: Sirat - Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas

The Best of 2025: 45th Shadows Awards

As usual, here's a brief summary of my top 10 lists for the year, with much, much more on the 45th Shadows Awards page on the website. These are my favourites - and as usual, I always like to be surprised...

BEST FILMS: 

1. Sirāt (Oliver Laxe)
2. Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
3. Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper)
4. Hamnet (Chloé Zhao)
5. Cactus Pears (Rohan Parashuram Kanawade)
6. Good One (India Donaldson)
7. Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier)
8. Sorry, Baby (Eva Victor)
9. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Mstyslav Chernov)
10. Wake Up Dead Man (Rian Johnson)

DIRECTOR:

1. Chloé Zhao - Hamnet
2. Ray Mendoza & Alex Garland - Warfare
3. Lynne Ramsay - Die My Love
4. Ryan Coogler - Sinners
5. India Donaldson - Good One
6. Oliver Laxe - Sirāt
7. Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
8. Kelly Reichardt - The Mastermind
9. Mary Bronstein - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
10. Celine Song - Materialists

SCREENWRITER:

1. Ryan Coogler - Sinners
2. Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby
3. Rian Johnson - Wake Up Dead Man
4. Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident
5. Harry Lighton - Pillion
6. India Donaldson - Good One
7. Rohan Parashuram Kanawade - Cactus Pears
8. Chloé Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell - Hamnet
9. Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
10. Kleber Mendonca Filho - The Secret Agent

ACTRESS: 

1. Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
2. Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
3. Camila Plaate - Belén
4. Leonie Benesch - Late Shift
5. Jennifer Lawrence - Die My Love
6. Tessa Van den Broeck - Julie Keeps Quiet
7. Yasmine Al Massri - Palestine 36
8. Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
9. Laura Dern - Is This Thing On, Jay Kelly
10. Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

ACTOR: 

1. Théodore Pellerin - Lurker, Nino
2. Michael B Jordan - Sinners
3. Paul Mescal - The History of Sound, Hamnet
4. Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value
5. Mahmood Bakri - To a Land Unknown
6. Josh O'Connor - The Mastermind, Wake Up Dead Man, The History of Sound, Rebuilding
7. Ryo Yoshizawa - Kokuhō
8. Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
9. Will Poulter - Warfare, On Swift Horses
10. Sergi Lopez - Sirāt

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

1. Nina Hoss - Hedda
2. Glenn Close - Wake Up Dead Man
3. Amy Madigan - Weapons, Rebuilding
4. Youn Yuh-jung - The Wedding Banquet
5. Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
6. Fiona Shaw - Hot Milk, Park Avenue
7. Mariam Afshari - It Was Just an Accident
8. Naomi Ackie - Mickey 17, Sorry Baby, The Thursday Murder Club
9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
10. Maxine Peake - I Swear

SUPPORTING ACTOR: 

1. Miles Caton - Sinners
2. Kit Connor - Warfare
3. Tonatiuh - Kiss of the Spider Woman
4. Alexander Skarsgard - Pillion
5. Min Tanaka - Kokuhō
6. Noah Jupe - Hamnet, The Carpenter's Son
7. Jay Lycurgo - Steve
8. Ken Watanabe - Kokuhō
9. Jack O'Connell - Sinners, 28 Years Later
10. Archie Madekwe - Lurker

WORST FILM: 

1. A Working Man (David Ayer)
2. The Home (James DeMonaco)
3. Star Trek: Section 31 (Olatunde Osunsanmi)
4. Him (Justin Tipping)
5. Night of Violence (Illya Konstantin)
6. The Electric State (Joe & Anthony Russo)
7. Bull Run (Alfredo Barrios Jr)
8. The Pickup (Tim Story)
9. The Ice Tower (Lucile Hadzihalilovic)
10. Harvest (Athina Rachel Tsangari)

TV SERIES: 

1. Adolescence (Netflix)
2. Hacks 4 (Max)
3. The White Lotus 3 (HBO)
4. Chief of War (Apple)
5. Boots (Netflix)
6. Juice 2 (BBC)
7. Only Murders in the Building 5 (Hulu)
8. Too Much (Netflix)
9. Andor 2 (Disney)
10. Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light (BBC)

SINGLE: 

1. Golden - Huntr/x
2. DtMF - Bad Bunny
3. Where Is My Husband - Raye
4. Undressed - Sombr
5. Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter
6. Daisy, When the Wine Runs Out - Role Model
7. The Giver - Chappell Roan
8. Rubber Band Man - Mumford and Sons & Hozier
9. I Lied to You - Miles Caton
10. Show Me Love - WizTheMc, Bees & Honey

Critical Week: Fractured fairy tale

It's the first of two short weeks in the UK, separated by the four-day Easter weekend, so of course they've been screening horror movies for critics. From Norway, The Ugly Stepsister is an inventive body-horror version of Cinderella that's witty and enjoyably ghastly. And then there's Sinners, Ryan Coogler's wonderfully bonkers new thriller with Michael B Jordan as twin gangsters in Jim Crow Mississippi facing racism and vampires. It's an astonishing must-see for fans of nuanced, layered, full-on nastiness.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
The Wedding Banquet • Warfare
Sinners • Freaky Tales
The Penguin Lessons
Dreamin' Wild • Grand Tour
ALL REVIEWS >

Switching gears, the British drama Treading Water is beautifully made, following an obsessive-compulsive guy (the superb Joe Gill) trying to get his life back on track. It's involving and moving. Lavender Men is adapted from a queer stage play, and retains the theatre setting and dense dialog. It's also provocative and meaningful as it explores our connection to history. From Mexico, Dying Briefly is a low-key and sexy dark romance set in a dance company. And the lovely British documentary Wind, Tide & Oar uses gloriously grainy 16mm film to profile impassioned people who sail without engines. I also saw the live performance Skatepark at Sadler's Wells East.

This coming week, I'll be watching Ben Affleck in The Accountant 2, Sandra Huller in Two to One, the childhood-home doc Where Dragons Live, a big-screen preview of the doc series The Wild Ones, and the stage shows Snow White: The Sacrifice and How to Fight Loneliness.

Critical Week: Larger than life

It's been a fairly relaxed week at the movies for me, as I've just tried to get caught up on things, posting reviews from autumn festivals and catching up on some films. There are a lot of awards-buzzy movies I haven't seen yet, so there's still a ways to go. One I'd been looking forward to certainly didn't disappoint: Vicky Krieps delivers a wonderfully nuanced performances as Austria's Empress Elisabeth in the inventive and rightfully award-winning biopic Corsage. And a terrific cast brings a more introspective tone to the sequel Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, a blockbuster that I liked better than the first film, mainly because it dodges the usual Marvel pitfalls. 

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
No Bears • Wakanda Forever
Homebody • Being Thunder
PERHAPS AVOID:
A Couple • Dear Zoe
ALL REVIEWS >

Anya Taylor-Joy, Ralph Fiennes and Nicholas Hoult star in the blackly comical The Menu, which tilts intriguingly from parody into horror. Dustin Hoffman and Sissy Spacek team up with their children Jake Hoffman and Schuyler Fisk in the warmly dramatic romcom Sam & Kate. Romain Duris and Berenice Bejo join director Michel Hazanavicious for the witty and perhaps too-meta zombie movie pastiche Final Cut. Ryan Kwanten goes Blade Runner for the enigmatic futuristic Hong Kong noir Expired. The comedy Homebody creates an unusually knowing body-swap scenario. And the Latin American horror Blood-Red Ox is confusing but packed with clever details.

The Critics' Circle Film Section also held its annual lunch with the British Board of Film Classification, an event that has been virtual for the past two years. It was great to be back in-person again, learning about the BBFC's new endeavours and going through some of the borderline cases over the past year. And it was also nice to be in a room full of critics as well - for the second time in a week after last Thursday's special Critics' Circle all-sections award lunch for Emma Thompson.

Movies to this coming week include Lili Taylor and Jason Schwartzman in the romcom There There, Lukas Dhont's teen drama Close, Costa Rica's drama Clara Sola, the French animated comedy Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, and the Indian action epic RRR. I'm also flying out to Southern California to visit my family and friends for a couple of weeks, and of course to watch more movies too.

Sundance London 2: Seeing double

It's only Day 2 of a three-day film festival and I already have that feeling like I need more sleep, more time to do my work and more time away from screens of any kind. Any journalist who has covered a film festival knows these symptoms, but we persevere. The Sundance London Festival is actually refreshingly small - there are only 21 features, and I don't have to see them all. But then the festival started for the press on Tuesday morning, so we're actually almost a week in. Some more highlights...

The One I Love
dir Charlie McDowell; with Elisabeth Moss, Mark Duplass 14/US ****
With a bone-dry sense of humour and a fiendishly clever central gimmick, this relationship movie gets surprisingly deep while also creating unexpected currents of tension. There's definitely a sense that the script is too smart for its own good, but as played by the cast it feels remarkably off-handed, revealing real emotions in every scene. Moss and Duplass (pictured above) play a couple struggling to hold their relationship together when they head off on a remote retreat, where they are confronted in an outrageous way with the ways they idealise each other. It's a fiendishly clever idea, very simple and utterly mind-bending. Both actors play it perfectly, playfully adding telling details and subtle emotions to scenes that unfold as if they're improvised. And Moss adds something even more impressive in yet another astonishing performance.

Fruitvale Station
dir-scr Ryan Coogler; with Michael B Jordan, Melonie Diaz 13/US *****
Expertly written, fluidly directed and performed with earthy authenticity, this drama recreates a terrible real-life event without resorting to melodramatics or manipulation. And what's most remarkable is that filmmaker Coogler presents the story without trying to wedge in a contrived message. In other words, these kinds of things happen to complex people who are neither heroes or bad guys ... FULL REVIEW >

The Case Against 8
dir Ben Cotner, Ryan White; with Ted Olson, David Boies 14/US ****.
While there's nothing particularly notable about the way this documentary is put together, it tells a hugely important story with real skill, building to key emotional points while making sure the political implications are clear. And the people on-screen become such vivid, engaging characters that the moving final sequence is almost overwhelming. After a bit of scene-setting, the narrative begins on election day in 2008, when Obama was elected president and California ratified Proposition 8. Lawyers immediately saw the holes in this legislation, and over the next five years the case escalated through the courts, culminating in the Supreme Court decision last June, which effectively repealed Prop 8. The film follows all of this through the eyes of the plaintiffs, two same-sex couples who bravely volunteered to be the public face of equality, working with the unlikely legal team of Olson and Boies (who argued opposite sides before the Supreme Court over the Bush v Gore election in 2000). And along with a hugely engaging narrative, this is one of the clearest depictions yet about why this isn't actually a religious or political issue.

Memphis
dir-scr Tim Sutton; with Willis Earl Beal, Lopaka Thomas 13/US ***
While this swirling odyssey of a movie is beautifully shot and scored (by its star), it's also relentlessly indulgent, wallowing in the artistic process without properly bringing viewers in. Which leaves it as a fascinating exploration of creativity without anything meaningful to grab hold of. The film follows Beal as he roams around Memphis, mixing with locals, old friends and a lot of people who are never defined (family? friends? kind strangers?). He has just made it big, and lives in a mansion he hasn't yet made a home, driving around town in a huge white Cadillac. Most of these relationships feel unsatisfying, but Beal's biggest problem is coming up with material for that dreaded second album. There are clever elements of Beal's self-examination in this film - from working out his most optimal conditions to be creative to wondering whether he had any talent to begin with. But the film is resolutely experimental, refusing to add any coherence to help the audience follow along. We can absorb moods and ideas and emotions, but without any idea who these people are, it's impossible to engage with Beal or his quest.

Critical Week: This year's Help

UK critics finally got their first look at Lee Daniels' all-star epic drama The Butler this week. While it plays out essentially a Civil Rights-themed variation on Forrest Gump, it's actually a true story. And an unusually slushy film for Daniels. We had a lot more fun watching the sequel Thor: The Dark World, an oversized blockbuster that's so ridiculous that you can't help but smile. But the best movie this past week was Ryan Coogler's Sundance-winning Fruitvale Station, a shocking true drama skilfully filmed without pushing any sort of message other than this kind of thing must never happen again.

Off the beaten path, there was the surreal adventure thriller Escape From Tomorrow, a fiendishly clever film shot guerrilla-style at Disney theme parks; the British gypsy drama Traveller, which isn't well enough made to overcome its cliches; and the dark gay thriller Triple Crossed, which makes up for its low budget with a twisty plot and intriguing characters. And we also had three documentaries: the rousing Milius exploring filmmaker John Milius' astounding life and work; the harrowing Pandora's Promise looking into the truth about nuclear power an how it's probably the answer to climate change; and the witty but dry Rough Cut remaking scenes from a fake 1980s slasher horror.

This coming week we have Jude Law in Dom Hemingway, the animated adventure Free Birds, the British comedy Breakfast With Jonny Wilkinson, the political thriller Exposed, and the Israeli drama Fill the Void.