Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & Predictions

Once again, here are how I think things will go Sunday night at the 97th Academy Awards. This is one of the least predictable Oscar races in recent memory, with multiple categories too close to call. And I do love surprises and upsets! A couple of my notes here are risky, but here we are...

PICTURE
Will win: Conclave
Serious contender: Anora
Should win: A Complete Unknown

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will/should win: I'm Still Here
Dark horse: Emilia Perez

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will win: Flow
Should win: The Wild Robot

DOCUMENTARY
Will/should win: No Other Land
Dark horse: Porcelain War

DIRECTING
Will win: Sean Baker - Anora
Serious contender: Brady Corbet - The Brutalist
Should win: Coralie Fargeat - The Substance

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: A Real Pain - Jesse Eisenberg
Serious contender: Anora - Sean Baker

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Conclave - Peter Straughan
Should win: Sing Sing - Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Demi Moore - The Substance
Serious contender: Mikey Madison - Anora
Should win/dark horse: Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown
Serious contender: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist
Should win: Colman Domingo - Sing Sing

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will/should win: Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Perez

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will/should win: Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain

FILM EDITING
Will win: Conclave - Nick Emerson
Should win: Anora - Sean Baker

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will/should win: The Brutalist - Lol Crawley

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Brutalist - Daniel Blumberg
Should win: The Wild Robot - Kris Bowers
Dark horse: Emilia Perez - Clement Ducol and Camille

ORIGINAL SONG
Will/should win: El Mal - Emilia Perez - Clement Ducol, Camille, Jacques Audiard

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will/should win: The Brutalist - Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia
Dark horse: Conclave - Suzie Davies, Cynthia Sleiter
[Winner: Wicked: Part I - Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales]

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Wicked: Part I - Paul Tazewell
Should win: A Complete Unknown - Arianne Phillips

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will/should win: The Substance - Pierre-Olivier Persin, Stephanie Guillon, Marilyne Scarselli

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will/should win: Dune: Part Two - Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer
Dark horse: Wicked - Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, David Shirk, Paul Corbould

SOUND
Will win: Dune: Part Two - Gareth John, Richard King, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hemphill
Should win: The Wild Robot - Randy Thom, Brian Chumney, Gary A Rizzo, Leff Lefferts