Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

And so Oscar night rolls around again, much earlier than usual, capping a crazily truncated awards season. Here are who I think has a good chance of winning, and who I hope will win. My track record isn't great here, and this year there are some big questions lingering, mainly how much love Ampas voters will have for a Korean movie. Parasite is undoubtably the best movie of the year, perhaps the decade. But Oscars rarely actually go to the "best", as they're too busy honouring people they like. As always, I'm hoping for upsets and surprises...

BEST PICTURE

Should win: Parasite
Will win: 1917
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Should win: Pain and Glory
Will win: Parasite

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Should win: Honeyland
Will win: American Factory
Dark horse: For Sama

ANIMATED FEATURE

Should win: I Lost My Body
Will win: Klaus
Dark horse: Missing Link

DIRECTING

Should win: Parasite - Bong Joon Ho
Will win: 1917 - Sam Mendes
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should win: The Two Popes - Anthony McCarten
Will win: Little Women - Greta Gerwig
Dark horse: Jojo Rabbit - Taika Waititi

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should/will win: Parasite - Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Should/will win: Renee Zellweger - Judy

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Should win: Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Should/will win: Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Dark horse: Florence Pugh - Little Women

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Should win: Al Pacino - The Irishman
Will win: Brad Pitt - Once upon a Time ... in Hollywood

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should/will win: 1917 - Roger Deakins

COSTUME DESIGN

Should win: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Arianne Phillips
Will win: Little Women - Jacqueline Durran

FILM EDITING

Should win: The Irishman - Thelma Schoonmaker
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Michael Mccusker & Andrew Buckland
Dark horse: Parasite - Yang Jinmo

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Should win: Judy - Jeremy Woodhead
Will win: Bombshell - Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan & Vivian Baker

ORIGINAL SCORE

Should win: 1917 - Thomas Newman
Will win: Joker - Hildur Gudnadottir
Dark horse: Little Women - Alexandre Desplat
Always a contender: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - John Williams

ORIGINAL SONG

Should/will win: (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again -  Rocketman, Elton John & Bernie Taupin
Dark horse: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4, Randy Newman

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Should win: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
Will win: 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
Dark horse: Parasite - Lee Ha Jun, Cho Won Woo

SOUND EDITING

Should win: 1917 - Oliver Tarney & Rachael Tate
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Donald Sylvester

SOUND MIXING

Should win: 1917 - Mark Taylor & Stuart Wilson
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Paul Massey, David Giammarco & Steven A Morrow

VISUAL EFFECTS

Should win: 1917 - Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler & Dominic Tuohy
Will win: Avengers: Endgame - Dan Deleeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken & Dan Sudick

Critical Week: Me and my shadow

It's been a busy week at the movies, with three much-anticipated press screenings. The best of the lot was Pain and Glory, which reteams writer-director Pedro Almodovar with actor Antonio Banderas (above) for a remarkably intimate, lushly produced exploration of cinema and creativity. I also really enjoyed Quentin Tarantino's ode to the heyday of 1960s cinema with Once Upon a Time ... in Hollywood. The cast is excellent (anchored ably by Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt), and Tarantino feels effortlessly in control of the story through each astonishing sequence. And then there was Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw, the franchise spinoff starring Dwayne Johnson and Jason Statham. It's just as noisy and packed with action as you'd expect, and a lot funnier too.

Being the summer, there were three animated movies as well. The biggest is The Angry Birds Movie 2, which carries on in the same goofy style as the original, mixing chaotic slapstick with deranged adult-aimed humour. Charming is a decently animated low-budget Canadian production with a great premise that starts out undermining the fairy tale genre before giving in lazily to every cliche. Leo Da Vinci: Mission Mona Lisa is an Italian-Polish production that looks rather cheap, but has a certain charm as it sends the teen inventor on a ridiculous treasure hunt adventure.

Foreign films included The Operative, a quietly tense German-Israeli production starring Diane Kruger and Martin Freeman. From Spain, The Candidate is a fast-paced labyrinthine political thriller with a clear-eyed perspective on endemic corruption. The French-German drama Transit sets a WWII story in modern-day Marseilles. It's finely produced and acted, but strains to connect the eras. And from Argentina, End of the Century is a twisty personal drama set in Barcelona, where two men remember meeting before. What follows skilfully plays on both memory and expectations.

There will be more family-friendly summer movies this next week, with the adventure Dora and the Lost City of Gold, the Kevin Costner comedy The Art of Racing in the Rain, and more animation with both UglyDolls and Asterix: The Secret of the Magic Potion. Other films include Shia LaBeouf and Dakota Johnson in The Peanut Butter Falcon, the spy thriller Ecco and the horror movie Wicked Witches.