Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I've never been particularly good at guessing how Oscar voters will cast their ballots, but I have to give it a go each year anyway. And I've seen all of the films, so at least I'm qualified, eh? That said, here are who I think will win, who I want to win and who could possible upset the field. As usual, I will be hoping for lots of upsets and surprises. There's nothing worse than a predicable Academy Awards ceremony. And thankfully, this year's strangely over-extended awards season and offbeat releasing schedules make it one of the least predictable line-ups in years...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Nomadland
Dark horse: Minari

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: Another Round
Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida?

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Soul
Dark horse: WolfWalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Should win: Collective
Dark horse: Crip Camp

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Dark horse: Minari - Lee Isaac Chung

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Father - Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Should win: Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Dark horse: Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Should win: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Dark horse: Anthony Hopkins - The Father

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Should win: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Dark horse: Amanda Seyfried - Mank

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Dark horse: Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami - Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
Should win: Husavik,  Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Goransson
Dark horse: Io Si (Seen), The Life Ahead - Diane Warren, Laura Pausini

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Joshua James Richards

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sound of Metal - Mikkel EG Nielsen
Should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Mank -  Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson
Should win: Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

SOUND
Will / should win: Sound Of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, Phillip Bladh

Critical Week: Learn that dance

It's awards season, so I had two more virtual screenings this week accompanied by cast and crew zoom-style Q&As. Ma Rainey's Black Bottom is a faithful adaptation of the acclaimed August Wilson play, and it's somewhat overplayed and stagebound. But the actors are superb, including the late Chadwick Boseman (all other actors should abandon Oscar hopes this year) and Viola Davis. And Carey Mulligan and Ralph Fiennes star in The Dig, an unusually earthy period film about a history-changing archaeological discovery. Without the accompanying Q&As, I also caught up with Soul, in which Pixar outdoes even themselves with flat-out awesome animation and a staggeringly deep story, and Steven Soderbergh's Let Them All Talk, in which a starry cast (Streep! Bergen! Wiest!) explores deep themes in an offhanded shipboard comedy.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
The Stand In • Alex Wheatle
Funny Boy • The Prom
Song Without a Name
ALL REVIEWS >

The final two episodes of Steve McQueen's unmissable Small Axe series screened: Alex Wheatle is a superb biopic about the awakening of an acclaimed novelist, while Education is an exhilarating drama that takes on racism in Britain's school system. Riz Ahmed is simply stunning as a drummer dealing with deafness in Sound of Metal. Tessa Thompson transcends the muted period vibe in the romance Sylvie's Love. And Sienna Miller shines in the moody odyssey Wander Darkly. 

I also caught up with two excellent foreign films: Funny Boy is a moving, gorgeously made drama from Sri Lanka by ace filmmaker Deepa Mehta, while Cocoon is a German coming-of-age drama that catches an intimate perspective. And there was also one film screened in a cinema, and the freaky British horror Saint Maud is definitely worth seeing on a huge screen with a rumbling sound system.

This coming week, I have two more screenings in actual cinemas: delayed blockbuster Wonder Woman 1984 and the true conspiracy drama The Mauritanian starring Tahar Rahim, Jodie Foster and Benedict Cumberbatch. There's also Diane Lane in Let Him Go, Alicia Silverstone in Sister of the Groom, Alicia Witt in Modern Persuasion, the dance-based romance Aviva and the shorts collection The Boy Is Mine.