Oscar night: out on a limb

Here are my hopes, fears and predictions for Oscar night on Sunday, as usual. I'll be watching on TV in Los Angeles, not far from the Kodak Theatre but avoiding all of that nonsense. And even though the winners feel as predictable as always, Academy voters can still surprise us. As always, I'm hoping for some big upsets...

P I C T U R E
Will win/should win: The Artist
Possible: The Descendants
Dark Horse: The Help
Would be a crime: Hugo

D I R E C T O R
will win/should win: Michel Hazanavicius
Dark horse: Martin Scorsese
Would be a nice surprise: Terrence Malick

A C T R E S S
Will win/should win: Meryl Streep
Very possible: Viola Davis

A C T O R
Will win/should win: Jean Dujardin
Quite possible: George Clooney
Would be a nice surprise: Gary Oldman

S U P P O R T I N G    A C T R E S S
Will win: Octavia Spencer
Should win: Berenice Bejo
Dark horse: Jessica Chastain

S U P P O R T I N G      A C T O R
Will win/should win: Christopher Plummer
Dark horse: Nick Nolte

O R I G I N A L     S C R E E N P L A Y
Will win: Midnight in Paris
Should win: A Separation
Dark horse: The Artist

A D A P T E D     S C R E E N P L A Y
Will win: The Descendants
Should win: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Dark horse: Moneyball