Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Once again, here are my choices and who I think will win at the 89th Academy Awards on Sunday. My track record on this is a bit spotty, but I am a realist, knowing that Oscar voters often award the wrong people for the right reasons.....

P I C T U R E
Will/should win: La La Land
Dark horse: Moonlight

F O R E I G N   F I L M
Will win: The Salesman
Should/could win: Toni Erdmann
Dark horse: A Man Called Ove

A N I M A T E D   F E A T U R E
Will win: Zootopia
Should/could win:  Kubo and the Two Strings

D O C U M E N T A R Y
Will win: 13th
Should win:  Fire at Sea
Could win: OJ: Made in America

D I R E C T O R
Will win: Damien Chazelle - La La Land
Should win:  Barry Jenkins - Moonlight

A C T R E S S
Will/should win: Isabelle Huppert - Elle
Quite likely: Emma Stone - La La Land
Dark horse: Natalie Portman - Jackie

A C T O R
Will/should win: Casey Affleck - Manchester by the Sea
Quite likely: Denzel Washington - Fences
Dark horse: Ryan Gosling - La La Land

S U P P O R T I N G   A C T R E S S
Will win: Viola Davis - Fences
Should win/dark horse: Naomie Harris - Moonlight

S U P P O R T I N G   A C T O R
Will win: Mahershala Ali - Moonlight
Should win:  Lucas Hedges - Manchester By The Sea
Dark horse: Dev Patel - Lion

O R I G I N A L   S C R E E N P L A Y
Will/should win: Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester by the Sea
Could win: Damien Chazelle - La La Land

A D A P T E D   S C R E E N P L A Y
Will/should win: Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
Dark horse: Luke Davies - Lion

S C O R E
Will win: Justin Hurwitz - La La Land
Should win:  Mica Levi - Jackie

S O N G
Will win: City of Stars - La La Land
Should win:  Audition (The Fools Who Dream) - La La Land

C I N E M A T O G R A P H Y
Will win: Linus Sandgren - La La Land
Should win:  James Laxton - Moonlight

P R O D U C T I O N   D E S I G N
Will win: David Wasco - La La Land
Should win:  Jess Gonchor - Hail, Caesar!

F I L M   E D I T I N G
Will win: Tom Cross - La La Land
Should win:  Joe Walker - Arrival

C O S T U M E S
Will/should win: Madeline Fontaine - Jackie
Could win: Mary Zophres - La La Land

E F F E C T S
Will/should win: The Jungle Book

M A K E - U P   &   H A I R
Will/should win: A Man Called Ove

S O U N D   
Should win:  Arrival
Will win: La La Land

36th Shadows Awards: Happy New Year!

There's an even wider variety than usual in my top 10 this year, but all of these are films I simply couldn't forget, mainly due to the sheer skill of the filmmakers. Pablo Larrain brought unusual depth and complexity to his exploration of legacy and celebrity in Jackie; Gianfranco Rosi's Fire at Sea is a timely documentary, a heart-pounding adventure and a heart-rending drama at the same time; Damien Chazelle's La La Land is a joyous celebration of love and aspiration in a city known for making and crushing dreams. Those are just the top three, and I feel as strongly about all the movies in my top 50 this year. (Long lists happen when you see some 500 movies a year!) Full lists and then some are ON THE SITE...

BEST FILMS

1. Jackie (Pablo Larrain)
2. Fire at Sea (Gianfranco Rosi)
3. La La Land (Damien Chazelle)
4. Son of Saul (Laszlo Nemes)
5. Moonlight (Barry Jenkins)
6. Toni Erdmann (Maren Ade)
7. Kubo and the Two Strings (Travis Knight)
8. It's Only the End of the World (Xavier Dolan)
9. The Woman Who Left (Lav Diaz)
10. Under the Shadow (Babak Anvari)

DIRECTOR

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

WRITER

Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

ACTRESS 

Isabelle Huppert (Elle, Things to Come)

ACTOR

Geza Rohrig (Son of Saul)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Naomie Harris (Moonlight, Our Kind of Traitor, Collateral Beauty)

SUPPORTING ACTOR 

Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea)

WORST FILMS

1. The Boss (Ben Falcone)
2. Ride Along 2 (Tim Story)
3. Stonewall (Roland Emmerich)
4. Assassin's Creed (Justin Kurzel)
5. Inferno (Ron Howard)
6. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates (Jake Szymanski)
7. The Greasy Strangler (Jim Hosking)
8. Bad Santa 2 (Mark Waters)
9. London Has Fallen (Babak Najafi)
10. Warcraft (Duncan Jones)

Venezia 73: Holding it together on day 8

We're in the final stretch now, and the lack of sleep, long distances of walking, contrasts between hot sunshine and chilly air conditioning are all taking their toll. But the parties are starting up. Our jury decides on its winner today (still two more films to see), and the weekend will see a range of celebrations. Then next week it's back to work as usual. Anyway, here's what I saw on Tuesday (that's Natalie Portman, above, in my best of the fest so far)...

Jackie
dir Pablo Larrain; with Natalie Portman, Peter Sarsgaard 16/US *****
Chilean filmmaker Pablo Larrain takes a clear-eyed approach to this fictionalised account of the days following JFK's assassination. Anchored by a pungent performance by Natalie Portman, the film digs deep into the complexities of grief, with glancing blows to celebrity culture and political expediency. Never slick or sentimental, its layers of resonance are hard to shake.

The Journey
dir Nick Hamm; with Timothy Spall, Colm Meaney 16/UK ***
Anchored by tremendous performances by Timothy Spall and Colm Meaney, this British drama imagines a real-life political conversation in the style of The Queen or Frost/Nixon. Even though it's simplistic and contrived, Colin Bateman's script is snaky and often very funny as it traps mortal enemies Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness in a car for an hour or so. The resuly is entertaining, although it could have had a lot more bite.

Voyage of Time
dir-scr Terrence Malick; narr Cate Blanchett 16/US ***
Call this the logical next stage in the evolution of Terrence Malick: his swirling approach to natural history has eschewed even a hint of a plot to instead trace time from drifting bits of matter to, well, drifting bits of matter. With all of Earth's existence in between. It's often breathtakingly gorgeous, and there are some very clever touches. But it's also rather corny, and a bit obvious.

Paradise
dir Andrey Konchalovsky; with Yuliya Vysotskaya, hristian Clauss  16/Russia ***.
With a bold visual and structural style, Andrey Konchalovsky gives the Nazi deathcamp movie an eternal twist, exploring the actions and motivations of three distinct people in the face of unspeakable horror. It's a difficult film, somewhat simplistic in its morality and pushy in its themes. But it has a visceral power that can't help but strike a chord.