Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & Predictions

As usual, I am more about my picks than my predictions, as I always want someone unexpected to win. This year's winners seem to be predestined, as the same people have walked off with trophies at ceremony after ceremony. So let's hope Oscar voters go against the grain just a little bit. Here's my annual list of who I think will win, and also who I think deserves to get the prize...

PICTURE

Will win: Oppenheimer - Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan
Should win: Past Lives
- David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler
Dark horse: Anatomy of a Fall - Marie-Ange Luciani, David Thion
Darker horse: The Holdovers - Mark Johnson

INTERNATIONAL FILM

Will / should win: The Zone of Interest
- James Wilson 
Dark horse: Perfect Days - Koji Yanai, Wim Wenders, Takuma Takasaki

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse - Kemp Powers, Justin K Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal
Should win: The Boy and the Heron - Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: 20 Days in Mariupol
- Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, Raney Aronson-Rath
Should win: The Eternal Memory - Maite Alberdi, Juan de Dios Larrain, Pablo Larrain

DIRECTING

Will win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Should win: Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will win: Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet & Arthur Harari
Should win: Past Lives - Celine Song
Dark horse: The Holdovers - David Hemingson

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: American Fiction - Cord Jefferson

Should win: Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach 

Serious contender: Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Will win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Should win: Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall

Serious contender: Emma Stone - Poor Things

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Will / should win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Dark horse: Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will / should win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Will win: Robert Downey Jr - Oppenheimer
Should win: Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Dark horse: Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: Oppenheimer - Ludwig Goransson
Should win: Poor Things - Jerskin Fendrix

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: What Was I Made For? - Barbie - Mark Ronson, Andrew Wyatt
Should win: I'm Just Ken - Barbie - Billie Eilish, Finneas O'Connell

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will / should win: Oppenheimer - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING

Will win: Oppenheimer - Jennifer Lame
Should win: Anatomy of a Fall - Laurent Senechal

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will / should win: Barbie - Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer

Dark horse: Poor Things - James Price, Shona Heath, Zsuzsa Mihalek

COSTUME DESIGN

Will win: Poor Things - Holly Waddington
Should win: Barbie - Jacqueline Durran

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will / should win: The Creator - Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, Neil Corbould
Dark horse: Godzilla Minus One - Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, Tatsuji Nojima

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Will / should win: Poor Things - Nadia Stacey, Mark Coulier, Josh Weston

SOUND

Will / should win: The Zone of Interest
- Tarn Willers, Johnnie Burn
Dark horse: Oppenheimer - Willie Burton, Richard King, Gary A Rizzo, Kevin O'Connell

Critical Week: Don't even think about it, punk

As many of London's critics decamp to Venice for the next 10 days, I'm kind of wishing I was there again this year, but glad I can relax just a little. Although the month is pretty busy with screenings and theatre press nights. The summer blockbusters are behind us, and now we have the usual oddball mix of autumn movies. A bigger one this week was Denzel Washington's return to his vigilante character in The Equalizer 3, which is well made enough to be watchable, but it's still a celebration of brutality. Much higher brow was the festival favourite Past Lives, a simply gorgeous debut for writer-director Celine Song and one of the best films I've seen all year. Then somewhere in between we had Nandor Fodor and the Talking Mongoose, an entertaining 1930s-set British comedy based on a bonkers true story and starring Simon Pegg and Minnie Driver,

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
The First Slam Dunk • Passages
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia
Bobi Wine: The People's President
REVIEWS >

More offbeat fare included Jennifer Reeder's stylised horror Perpetrator, which inventively explores femininity and gender issues with rather a lot of bloodletting. From Japan, The First Slam Dunk is flat-out one of the best films of the year, an animated basketball drama with great characters and thrilling action. From France, another terrific animated adventure in the lively, music-infused sequel Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia. And I also finally caught up with the 1945 British classic romcom I Know Where I'm Going, which was simply heaven to watch on a big screen. There were also lots of FrightFest films.

This coming week I'll be watching the sequel My Big Fat Greek Wedding 3, the Armenian drama Amerikatsi, the British doc A Life on the Farm, and the festival films Big Easy Queens and Summer Qamp.