Oscar night: out on a limb

Here are my hopes and expectations for the big ceremony on Sunday in Los Angeles. For the first time in about four years, I'll be in London watching through the night - the ceremony runs roughly from 2am to 6am, with Best Picture awarded just as the sun is coming up.

This year's awards race has been the strangest in ages, with no runaway favourite. Most but not all of the categories have someone who is odds-on to win (Supporting Actor is the hardest to predict), but Oscar voters have a way of confounding expectations. So as always I'm cheering for upsets...

P I C T U R E
Will win: Argo
Should/could win: Life of Pi
Also quite possible: Lincoln
Dark horse: Silver Linings Playbook

D I R E C T O R
Will/should win: Ang Lee
Possible: Steven Spielberg
Dark horse: Michael Haneke

A C T R E S S
Will/should win: Jennifer Lawrence
Very possible: Emmanuelle Riva
Dark horse: Jessica Chastain

A C T O R
Will/should win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Possible: Hugh Jackman
Dark horse: Bradley Cooper

S U P P O R T I N G    A C T R E S S
Will/should win: Anne Hathaway
Possible: Sally Field

S U P P O R T I N G    A C T O R
Will/should win: Alan Arkin
Very possible: Tommy Lee Jones or Christoph Waltz
Dark horse: Robert De Niro

O R I G I N A L    S C R E E N P L A Y
Will/should win: Django Unchained
Possible: Zero Dark Thirty
Dark horse: Amour

A D A P T E D    S C R E E N P L A Y
Will win: Argo
Should/could win: Lincoln
Dark horses: Life of Pi or Silver Linings Playbook

F O R E I G N    F I L M
Will/should win: Amour
Dark horse: A Royal Affair
(NB. I haven't seen War Witch or Kon-Tiki in this category)

D O C U M E N T A R Y
Will win: Searching for Sugar Man
Should/could win: How to Survive a Plague
Dark horse: The Gatekeepers

A N I M A T E D   F E A T U R E
Will/should win: Frankenweenie
Very possible: Wreck-it Ralph
Dark horses: Brave or ParaNorman

32nd Shadows Awards: Best of 2012

Here are my top 10 films of 2012, as well as my favourites in the main categories. Full top-10 lists in each category, and rather an awful lot more, are on the site...

TOP 10 FILMS OF 2012:

1. Life of Pi (Ang Lee)
2. Rust and Bone (Jacques Audiard)
3. Holy Motors (Leos Carax)
4. Safety Not Guaranteed (Colin Trevorrow)
5. Amour (Michael Haneke)
6. Chronicle (Josh Trank)
7. Tabu (Miguel Gomes)
8. The House I Live In (Eugene Jarecki)
9. Sightseers (Ben Wheatley)
10. Pitch Perfect (Jason Moore)

DIRECTOR:
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)

SCREENPLAY:
Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain (Rust and Bone)

ACTRESS:
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook, The Hunger Games)

ACTOR:
Denis Lavant (Holy Motors)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Anne Hathaway (The Dark Knight Rises, Les Miserables)

SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables)

ENSEMBLE: Pitch Perfect

BREAKOUT FILMMAKER: Bart Layton (The Imposter)

BREAKOUT ACTOR: Dane DeHaan (Chronicle, Lawless)

MUSIC: The Master (Jonny Greenwood)

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Life of Pi (Cloudio Miranda)

EDITING: Argo (William Goldenberg)

PRODUCTION DESIGN: Berberian Sound Studio (Jennifer Kernke)

EFFECTS: Life of Pi

STUNTS: Haywire

~~~~~~~ ~~ ~~~ ~~~~
GETTING BACK TO NORMAL:
OK, so arriving back home with eight hours of jet lag on New Year's Eve is great if you want to stay up late, but it's not going to help me get back in the correct time zone very quickly. Especially since I have hours (if not days) of work ahead to get caught up after a few weeks away. On the flight home, I was able to revisit Pitch Perfect, cementing its place in my top 10 of the year (it's just as funny and clever the second time round). And ahead of me this coming week is a teetering stack of DVD screeners to catch up with. My first actual press screening will be the indie horror film Midnight Son on Friday, with Ryan Gosling's Gangster Squad, Arnold Schwarzenegger's The Last Stand and the film doc Side by Side following soon behind.

Critical Week: Seeking a happy ending

Perhaps due to the London Film Festival, we had a glut of big-star screenings over the last week or so. London-based critics were screened Silver Linings Playbook, an edgy, crowd-pleasing rom-com with Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence that's likely to scoop up serious awards attention in the coming months. We also saw Martin McDonagh's anxiously awaited second feature, Seven Psychopaths, with a fantastic ensemble cast making the most of a witty look at screenwriting and small-time criminals. The Impossible is a beautifully made drama about the 2004 tsunami starring Naomi Watts and Ewan McGregor - both excellent, although Watts will get the most attention.

And it doesn't stop there. Terence Stamp and Vanessa Redgrave star in the engaging and shamelessly weepy Song for Marion, Chris Pine and Elizabeth Banks star in the enjoyable but awkward assembled-family drama People Like Us, and Kristin Scott Thomas and Ludvine Sagnier star in the offbeat and very creepy French drama Love Crime. Finally, we had three docs: the Rolling Stones celebrate 50 years in the business with Crossfire Hurricane, which only covers their first 20 years;  the Uganda activism doc Call Me Kuchu beautifully highlights the struggle for gay rights in a very violent place; and David Attenborough takes young children on yet another tour of an Antarctic penguin colony in the sharply photographed but unoriginal The Penguin King 3D.

THis coming week we have Philip Seymour Hoffman in A Late Quartet, the comedies For a Good Time Call and Fun Size, the British youth-culture drama Tempest and the artful doc Shock Head Soul.