Out on a limb: Oscar picks 2015

Sunday night's ceremony looks like it could feature a few big upsets (hopefully). And a new host in Neil Patrick Harris also means that the show itself will be less predictable. Apart from the acting categories, several races seem too close to call this year, which always makes the ceremony more fun to watch. My groans will be loudest if Birdman wins either film or actor, and my biggest cheer will be if anything other than Big Hero 6 wins animated feature.

I'll be watching the ceremony at the official Ampas Oscar party in London this year - it starts at 11pm and goes until 5am, shortly after Best Picture is announced. Then I can go home and take a long nap!

Here are my choices and predictions - I doubt I'll do as well as last year, when I only missed one...

PICTURE
Will/should win: Boyhood
Could win: Birdman
Dark horse: American Sniper

DIRECTING
Will win: Alejandro G Inarritu - Birdman
Could/should win: Richard Linklater - Boyhood

ACTOR
Will/should win: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything
Could win: Michael Keaton - Birdman
Dark horse: Bradley Cooper - American Sniper

ACTRESS
Will/should win: Julianne Moore - Still Alice

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash
Should win: Mark Ruffalo - Foxcatcher

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will/should win: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will win: Ida
Should/could win: Leviathan

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: Big Hero 6
Could win: The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
Should win: How to Train Your Dragon 2

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will/should win: Citizenfour
Could win: Virunga

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: The Imitation Game - Graham Moore
Could win: American Sniper - Jason Hall
Should win: Inherent Vice - Paul Thomas Anderson

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel - Wes Anderson, Hugo Guinness
Could win: Birdman - Alejandro G Inarritu, et al

PRODUCTION DESIGN / COSTUMES 
Will/should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

MAKEUP
Will win: Foxcatcher
Could win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Guardians of the Galaxy

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will/should win: Johann Johannsson - The Theory of Everything
Could win: Alexandre Desplat - The Grand Budapest Hotel

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Glory - Selma
Should win: Everything Is Awesome - The Lego Movie

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Birdman - Emmanuel Lubezki
Could win: Mr Turner - Dick Pope
Should win: Ida - Ryszard Lenczewski, Lukasz Zal

SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING
Will/should win: American Sniper

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will win: Interstellar
Could win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Should win: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes

FILM EDITING
Will/should win: Boyhood
Could win: Whiplash
Dark horse: American Sniper

LFF 1: The game's afoot

The 58th London Film Festival got off to a fine British start with The Imitation Game on Wednesday night, a rain-soaked premiere attended by Benedict Cumberbatch, Keira Knightley and most of the cast and crew. As a biopic about one of the greatest Brits who ever lived, it's an appropriate enough opening movie, and is likely to land Cumberbatch with an Oscar nomination in January.

For me, the first couple of days have passed in a blur of film screenings, interviews and scrabbling around for time to write up reviews, features and this blog. Here are some film highlights:

The Imitation Game
dir Morten Tyldum; with Benedict Cumberbatch, Keira Knightley 14/UK 1h53 ****
Ripping performances add layers of depth to a script that isn't quite as complex as its secrets-within-secrets structure would suggest. Based on declassified documents, the film is a hugely involving account of how British mathematicians cracked the Nazis' Enigma code and turned the tide of the war. Just as importantly, this is the first proper biopic about the world-changing genius Alan Turing. FULL REVIEW >

Men, Women & Children
dir Jason Reitman; with Rosemarie DeWitt, Jennifer Garner14/US **.
This cautionary tale about social media could only have been made by someone who grew up before it took over the world. Based on the novel by Chad Kultgen (age 38), the film was written by Wilson (50) and director Reitman (36) as a cautionary tale highlighting the dangers of small-screen interaction. But viewers under 30 may find it condescending and simplistic. FULL REVIEW >

Mr. Turner
dir Mike Leigh; with Timothy Spall, Marion Bailey 14/UK ****
At age 71, Mike Leigh continues to prove that he's one of the nimblest filmmakers working today. By avoiding the pitfalls of a formulaic plot, he reinvents both the costume drama and the celebrity-artist biopic as something earthy and real. Packed with humour and sardonic honesty, this exploration of the life of iconic painter JMW Turner is simply gorgeous.

'71
dir Yann Demange; with Jack O'Connell, Paul Anderson 14/UK ****
Set out as one young man's experience in the early days of the Troubles in Northern Ireland, this gritty, urgent film has much broader things to say about the impact violent conflict has on individuals and communities. It's a bit relentless in its approach, but it takes the audience on a provocative odyssey that sparks thought rather than trying to explain it all. FULL REVIEW >

Hockney
dir Randall Wright; with David Hockney, John Kasmin 14/UK ****
One of Britain's greatest living painters is the subject of this artful documentary, which swirls together firsthand memories from David Hockney, his friends, family and colleagues. Put together, this is a fascinating exploration of Hockney's art, digging in to see how his work was created and why he has such an obsession with pushing technical boundaries. The film is slightly long and indulgent, but fans will love every moment.