Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

And so Oscar night rolls around again, much earlier than usual, capping a crazily truncated awards season. Here are who I think has a good chance of winning, and who I hope will win. My track record isn't great here, and this year there are some big questions lingering, mainly how much love Ampas voters will have for a Korean movie. Parasite is undoubtably the best movie of the year, perhaps the decade. But Oscars rarely actually go to the "best", as they're too busy honouring people they like. As always, I'm hoping for upsets and surprises...

BEST PICTURE

Should win: Parasite
Will win: 1917
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Should win: Pain and Glory
Will win: Parasite

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Should win: Honeyland
Will win: American Factory
Dark horse: For Sama

ANIMATED FEATURE

Should win: I Lost My Body
Will win: Klaus
Dark horse: Missing Link

DIRECTING

Should win: Parasite - Bong Joon Ho
Will win: 1917 - Sam Mendes
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Should win: The Two Popes - Anthony McCarten
Will win: Little Women - Greta Gerwig
Dark horse: Jojo Rabbit - Taika Waititi

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Should/will win: Parasite - Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won
Dark horse: Once Upon A Time...In Hollywood - Quentin Tarantino

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

Should/will win: Renee Zellweger - Judy

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

Should win: Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix - Joker

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Should/will win: Laura Dern - Marriage Story
Dark horse: Florence Pugh - Little Women

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Should win: Al Pacino - The Irishman
Will win: Brad Pitt - Once upon a Time ... in Hollywood

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Should/will win: 1917 - Roger Deakins

COSTUME DESIGN

Should win: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Arianne Phillips
Will win: Little Women - Jacqueline Durran

FILM EDITING

Should win: The Irishman - Thelma Schoonmaker
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Michael Mccusker & Andrew Buckland
Dark horse: Parasite - Yang Jinmo

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

Should win: Judy - Jeremy Woodhead
Will win: Bombshell - Kazu Hiro, Anne Morgan & Vivian Baker

ORIGINAL SCORE

Should win: 1917 - Thomas Newman
Will win: Joker - Hildur Gudnadottir
Dark horse: Little Women - Alexandre Desplat
Always a contender: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker - John Williams

ORIGINAL SONG

Should/will win: (I'm Gonna) Love Me Again -  Rocketman, Elton John & Bernie Taupin
Dark horse: I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away - Toy Story 4, Randy Newman

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Should win: Once Upon A Time ... in Hollywood - Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh
Will win: 1917 - Dennis Gassner, Lee Sandales
Dark horse: Parasite - Lee Ha Jun, Cho Won Woo

SOUND EDITING

Should win: 1917 - Oliver Tarney & Rachael Tate
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Donald Sylvester

SOUND MIXING

Should win: 1917 - Mark Taylor & Stuart Wilson
Will win: Ford v Ferrari - Paul Massey, David Giammarco & Steven A Morrow

VISUAL EFFECTS

Should win: 1917 - Guillaume Rocheron, Greg Butler & Dominic Tuohy
Will win: Avengers: Endgame - Dan Deleeuw, Russell Earl, Matt Aitken & Dan Sudick

Critical Week: On the run

Awards screenings continued this week with several strikingly good movies. Daniel Kaluuya and Jodie Turner Smith star in the superb, pointed, involving road movie Queen & Slim. George MacKay and Dean Charles Chapman star in Sam Mendes' bravura WWI adventure 1917, which also features cameos from Benedict Cumberbatch, Andrew Scott, Mark Strong and Colin Firth. Mark Ruffalo takes on an evil corporation in Todd Haynes' riveting true drama Dark Waters. And Paul Walter Hauser is stunning as the title character in Clint Eastwood's Richard Jewell, the true story of a man whose life was ruined by media sensationalism in 1996.

Not looking for awards are Dwayne Johnson, Kevin Hart, Jack Black and Karen Gillan, back with all their friends for the lively, silly Jumanji: The Next Level, which has a bit mote texture than the first one. And John Cena and John Leguizamo lead the charge as firefighters in Playing With Fire, a dim but rather enjoyably ridiculous mix of comedy and action.

Further afield, Jennifer Reeder's unhinged Knives and Skin is an enjoyably deranged mystery-thriller with blackly comical edges set in small-town America. And Helen Hunt leads the horror thriller I See You as a doped-up housewife whose already strained life is upended by what seems like a ghost in the family home. There was also this important reissued drama from 1985...

---

Buddies
dir-scr-prd Arthur J Bressan Jr
with Geoff Edholm, David Schachter, Damon Hairston, Joyce Korn, Billy Lux, David Rose, Libby Saines, Susan Schneider, Tracy Vivat
release US 12.Sep.85 • reissue US 21.Jun.18, UK 6.Dec.19 • 85/US 1h21 ****

Digitally restored to a pristine state, this is one of the earliest dramas about Aids, made as the epidemic was only just starting in 1985. It's one of the most humane treatments of the topic, centred around a friendship between two young men who are facing their mortality in very different ways. Filmmaker Arthur Bressan has some tricks up his sleeve, but his storytelling is disarmingly simple, which makes the characters and situations deeply engaging.

As a volunteer for a gay community centre, 25-year-old David (Schachter) introduces himself to 32-year-old Aids patient Robert (Edholm), who is in hospital with no real chance of recovery. David is nervous, and Robert is confrontational, but as they get to know each other, barriers come down and they share their very different personal journeys. David sneaks some porn into the room, while Robert challenges David to get involved in pushing the government to end its silence and stop a disease that is killing a generation.

While the film's tone feels simplistic and old-fashioned, there's a sophistication to the characters and issues that is far ahead of its time. Even three decades later, this is a bracingly complex exploration of the Aids epidemic, the political cruelty that sparked it and the social opinions that exacerbated it. So the way the film presents David and Robert as normal guys just trying to live their lives has an everyday quality to it, as well as something revolutionary. It's beautifully acted by both Schachter and Edholm, who bring sharp humour and warm emotion to every scene. The other cast members remain mainly just out of sight, because this isn't their story. So not only is this a vital document of a place and time, but it's also a remarkably involving, provocative drama that needs to be seen today.

 4.Nov.19 • Berlin

---

This coming week I'm hoping to get into a screening of the animated adventure Spies in Disguise, and there are also Justin Long in After Class and Gary Oldman in The Courier, plus catching up with the animated film Missing Link, the footballer doc Diego Maradona and the Tarantino doc QT8: The First Eight.