Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I never feel hugely confident about predicting the Oscars, mainly because I am always hoping for upsets. This year's race has been unusually tricky to predict, with distinct winners from the guilds, Bafta and various precursor awards. So this year I'll feel happy if I get my usual 15 out of 20 correct. I get to vote in several awards during the season, but here's who I'd vote for if I got my hands on an Oscar ballot, along with who I think will win, and who could sneak in and walk off with the prize...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front - Germany
Should win: The Quiet Girl - Ireland
Dark horse: Close - Belgium

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Should win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Navalny
Should win: All The Beauty and The Bloodshed
Dark horse: Fire of Love

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Dark horse: The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh
Dark horse: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Women Talking - Sarah Polley
Should win: Living - Kazuo Ishiguro
Dark horse: Glass Onion - Rian Johnson

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Serious contender: Cate Blanchett - Tár

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Austin Butler - Elvis
Should win: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Dark horse: Bill Nighy - Living

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should win: Hong Chau - The Whale
Dark horse: Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Babylon - Justin Hurwitz
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Volker Bertelmann

ORIGINAL SONG
Will / should win: Naatu Naatu, RRR - MM Keeravaani, Chandrabose
Dark horse: Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick - Lady Gaga, Bloodpop

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Elvis - Mandy Walker
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - James Friend

FILM EDITING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Paul Rogers

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Babylon - Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
Dark horse: Elvis - Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Elvis - Catherine Martin
Dark horse: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Ruth E Carter

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Avatar: The Way of Water - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Elvis - Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Aldo Signoretti
Dark horse: The Whale - Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley

SOUND
Will / should win: Top Gun: Maverick - Mark Weingarten, James Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte

Critical Week: Feeling grinchy

As movies get increasingly heartwarming, it can be a challenge to ward off that inner Scrooge. Thankfully I have been watching quite a few more disturbing arthouse movies alongside the more warmly emotional wide-audience titles. And then there's A Man Called Otto, the engaging forthcoming Tom Hanks comedy that's a sentimental remake of the much edgier Swedish hit A Man Called Ove. Blockbuster sequel Avatar: The Way of Water also adds an undercurrent of emotion to its visually stunning action violence, as James Cameron creates another epic that entertains on various levels. 

BEST FILMS OUT NOW:
Rimini • The Silent Twins • Lynch/Oz
She Said • Matilda the Musical • Nanny
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
ALL REVIEWS >

More offbeat movies contending for awards included, appropriately, the UK's international film entry Winners, an enjoyable romp set about an Oscar statuette that takes its own mini-adventure in rural Iran. Ulrich Seidl's Rimini is a riveting pitch-black comedy about a desperate has-been singer in an off-season seaside resort town. Lukas Dhont's moving drama Close traces a pre-teen's harsh coming-of-age through the disruption of his relationship with his best friend. The hugely involving Polish odyssey EO follows a loveable donkey on an incredible journey that's sweet, challenging and often scary. And last year's crowd-pleasing Oscar nominee Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom is set in a gorgeous isolated corner of Bhutan. And outside awards contention were two indie titles: the Italian comedy-drama Marscapone, a warmly intimate look at maintaining your identity within a relationship, and American drama Peridot, an intriguingly loose portrait of a street hustler.

There are still a lot of movies to catch up with as year-end voting deadlines approach, including Will Smith in Emancipation, Lea Seydoux in One Find Morning, Toni Collette in The Estate, Christian Bale in The Pale Blue Eye, the animated adventure The Amazing Maurice, the war epic All Quiet on the Western Front and the David Bowie doc Moonage Daydream.