Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I never feel hugely confident about predicting the Oscars, mainly because I am always hoping for upsets. This year's race has been unusually tricky to predict, with distinct winners from the guilds, Bafta and various precursor awards. So this year I'll feel happy if I get my usual 15 out of 20 correct. I get to vote in several awards during the season, but here's who I'd vote for if I got my hands on an Oscar ballot, along with who I think will win, and who could sneak in and walk off with the prize...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: All Quiet on the Western Front - Germany
Should win: The Quiet Girl - Ireland
Dark horse: Close - Belgium

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will win: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Should win: Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: Navalny
Should win: All The Beauty and The Bloodshed
Dark horse: Fire of Love

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert
Dark horse: The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: The Banshees of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh
Dark horse: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: Women Talking - Sarah Polley
Should win: Living - Kazuo Ishiguro
Dark horse: Glass Onion - Rian Johnson

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Serious contender: Cate Blanchett - Tár

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Austin Butler - Elvis
Should win: Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
Dark horse: Bill Nighy - Living

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should win: Hong Chau - The Whale
Dark horse: Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All at Once

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dark horse: Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Babylon - Justin Hurwitz
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Volker Bertelmann

ORIGINAL SONG
Will / should win: Naatu Naatu, RRR - MM Keeravaani, Chandrabose
Dark horse: Hold My Hand, Top Gun: Maverick - Lady Gaga, Bloodpop

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Elvis - Mandy Walker
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - James Friend

FILM EDITING
Will / should win: Everything Everywhere All at Once - Paul Rogers

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Babylon - Florencia Martin, Anthony Carlino
Dark horse: Elvis - Catherine Martin, Karen Murphy, Bev Dunn

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Elvis - Catherine Martin
Dark horse: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever - Ruth E Carter

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Avatar: The Way of Water - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Elvis - Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, Aldo Signoretti
Dark horse: The Whale - Adrien Morot, Judy Chin, Anne Marie Bradley

SOUND
Will / should win: Top Gun: Maverick - Mark Weingarten, James Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, Mark Taylor
Dark horse: All Quiet on the Western Front - Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, Stefan Korte

On the road: Drop the mask

For my first trip out of Britain in two years, I returned to Southern California to visit family and friends. This is where I was when the first lockdown hit in March 2020, so it's been a bit surreal to be here as restrictions are finally lifting - and it's great to catch up with friends and family after such a long gap. Plus of course the fish tacos. 

I've caught up with just one movie here: Matt Reeves' new take on The Batman, starring Robert Pattison as the Dark Knight. It's a big film, bold in its emphasis on deeper emotions rather than the superficial action. But it's also overwhelmed by a cliched visual stylisation that stubbornly refuses to switch on a light or add much in the way of colour. Fans will love the earnestly whispered dialog, while serious filmgoers will roll their eyes.

On Saturday, I visited the Academy Museum with two university friends (an Instagram image set is below). We had a lot of fun with the extensive collection of clips and artefacts, but wondered why the curators so resolutely ignored the history of Hollywood and the studios. There are a variety of spaces that explore aspects of cinematic craft, and a fun space featuring clips and memorabilia from Oscar ceremonies, while sections dedicated to specific films and filmmakers felt more than a little random. I quite liked the Spike Lee exhibit, which centres around his influences. An enormous room dedicated to Almodóvar features lots of gorgeous posters and unidentified clips and nothing else. And it's fun to stand under the massive Moount Rushmore backdrop from North by Northwest. Other highlights include a large area exploring The Wizard of Oz, a collection of iconic movie creatures and a colourful special exhibition tracing the career of Hayao Miyazaki. Oddly, the small room celebrating Citizen Kane is the same size as the room celebrating Real Women Have Curves. And then there was the giftshop, which is completely lacking in souvenirs that feature Oscar, which seems like a seriously missed opportunity (the one Oscar photo op costs an extra $15). Another inexplicable error is omitting a snack bar on the vast open-air observation deck looking out over West Los Angeles. And lighting the exhibits in a way that makes selfies almost impossible. Let's hope they bring someone on board to make this museum something more properly amazing.

Because of The Batman, there are very few other films being released here these days. The only one in cinemas I'd kind of like to see is a guilty pleasure - the Foo Fighters' Studio 666 - but of course no one here wants to see that with me! So I'll probably wait until returning to London to see something new - plus the offerings at BFI Flare, a festival starting on March 16th.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Rich Jack Cline (@ukcline)

Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I've never been particularly good at guessing how Oscar voters will cast their ballots, but I have to give it a go each year anyway. And I've seen all of the films, so at least I'm qualified, eh? That said, here are who I think will win, who I want to win and who could possible upset the field. As usual, I will be hoping for lots of upsets and surprises. There's nothing worse than a predicable Academy Awards ceremony. And thankfully, this year's strangely over-extended awards season and offbeat releasing schedules make it one of the least predictable line-ups in years...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Nomadland
Dark horse: Minari

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: Another Round
Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida?

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Soul
Dark horse: WolfWalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Should win: Collective
Dark horse: Crip Camp

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Dark horse: Minari - Lee Isaac Chung

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Father - Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Should win: Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Dark horse: Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Should win: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Dark horse: Anthony Hopkins - The Father

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Should win: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Dark horse: Amanda Seyfried - Mank

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Dark horse: Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami - Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
Should win: Husavik,  Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Goransson
Dark horse: Io Si (Seen), The Life Ahead - Diane Warren, Laura Pausini

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Joshua James Richards

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sound of Metal - Mikkel EG Nielsen
Should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Mank -  Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson
Should win: Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

SOUND
Will / should win: Sound Of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, Phillip Bladh

Oscar picks & predictions: Out on a limb

It's that time of year when I try to imagine what the Academy will do on Sunday, while holding on to my personal hopes. This year's awards season has been the least predictable in memory, with the top prizes leading up to Oscar night scattered all over the place: there's no clear consensus winner in any category. And my track record for predictions is rather spotty. Still, there are inklings about who Ampas voters are likely to choose. And as always, I will be cheering any upsets and surprises, while hoping the producers take some risks in the ceremony itself to make it more fun to watch...

PICTURE

Will win: Roma
Should win: BlacKkKlansman
Dark horses: The Favourite or Green Book

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will win: RBG
Should win: Free Solo

FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM

Will win: Roma
Should win: Cold War
Dark horse: Capernaum

ANIMATED FEATURE

Will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Should win: Isle Of Dogs

DIRECTOR

Will win: Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
Should win: Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War
Dark horse: Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will / should win: The Favourite - Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
Dark horse: First Reformed - Paul Schrader

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will win: BlacKkKlansman - Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk - Barry Jenkins

ACTRESS

Will / should win: Olivia Colman - The Favourite
Possible life-achievement award: Glenn Close - The Wife

ACTOR

Will win: Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Should win: Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Dark horse: Christian Bale - Vice

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will / should win: Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Dark horses: Rachel Weisz or Amy Adams

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will win: Mahershala Ali - Green Book
Should win: Richard E Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me

PRODUCTION DESIGN

Will / should win: The Favourite - Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton

COSTUME DESIGN

Will / should win: The Favourite - Sandy Powell

ORIGINAL SCORE

Will win: BlacKkKlansman - Terence Blanchard
Should win: If Beale Street Could Talk - Nicholas Britell

ORIGINAL SONG

Will win: Shallow - A Star Is Born
Should win: When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will win: Roma - Alfonso Cuaron
Should win: Cold War - Lukasz Zal

FILM EDITING

Will win: Bohemian Rhapsody - John Ottman
Should win: The Favourite - Yorgos Mavropsaridis

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

Will win: Vice
Should win: Border

VISUAL EFFECTS

Will / should win: First Man

SOUND EDITING

Will / should win: A Quiet Place

SOUND MIXING

Will win: First Man
Should win: Roma