Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: my annual list of hopes and fears about Sunday night's 88th Academy Awards ceremony. I'll be watching the show live in central London all night (it starts at 1.30am London time and finishes as the sun comes up) with the smartly dressed Oscar crowd! As always, I will be hoping for upsets, political statements and surprises. If Iñárritu's The Revenant wins everything this year, as Iñárritu's Birdman did last year, it will just be boring. Here's how I think it'll go, and what I want to happen. Obviously, this is just guesswork...

Best Picture
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Spotlight
Dark horse: Mad Max: Fury Road

Foreign Language Film
Will / should win: Son of Saul (Hungary)
Could win: Mustang (France)
Dark horse: Theeb (Jordan)

Animated Feature
Will win: Inside Out
Should win: Anomalisa

Documentary Feature
Will win: Amy
Should win: The Look of Silence

Director
Will win: Alejandro G Iñárritu, The Revenant
Should win: Lenny Abrahamson, Room
Deserving upset: George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Actress
Will win: Brie Larson, Room
Should win: Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Actor
Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Should win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Dark horse: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Supporting Actress
Will win: Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Should win: Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
Could win: Rooney Mara, Carol
Dark horse: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Supporting Actor
Will win: Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Should win: Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Adapted Screenplay
Will win: The Big Short, Charles Randolph and Adam McKay
Should win: Carol, Phyllis Nagy
Could win: Brooklyn, Nick Hornby

Original Screenplay
Will / should win: Spotlight, Josh Singer & Tom McCarthy

Cinematography
Will win: The Revenant, Emmanuel Lubezki
Should win: Carol, Edward Lachman
Dark horse: Sicario, Roger Deakins

Original Score
Will win: The Hateful Eight, Ennio Morricone
Should win: Sicario, Jóhann Jóhannsson

Original Song
Will win: Til It Happens to You, The Hunting Ground
Should win: Manta Ray, Racing Extinction

Film Editing
Will win: The Revenant, Stephen Mirrione
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Margaret Sixel

Production Design
Will / should win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Could win: The Revenant

Costume Design
Will win: Carol, Sandy Powell
Should win: Mad Max: Fury Road, Jenny Beaven

Makeup & Hairstyling
Will / should win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Editing
Will win: The Revenant
Should win: Sicario
Could win: Mad Max: Fury Road

Sound Mixing
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: The Martian
Could win: The Revenant

Visual Effects
Will win: Mad Max: Fury Road
Should win: Ex Machina

35th Shadows Awards: Happy New Year!

There were two films this year that got deep under my skin, and ultimately it was Charlie Kaufman's extraordinary Anomalisa that demanded the top spot on my best of the year list, with Andrew Haigh's 45 Years in close second. (Note that Anomalisa doesn't come out in the UK until March, so won't feature in British awards until next year.) Here are my top picks in the main categories, and as usual there are full top 10s and a lot more on the site...

BEST FILMS

1. Anomalisa (Charlie Kaufman)
2. 45 Years (Andrew Haigh)
3. Room (Lenny Abrahamson)
4. Tangerine (Sean Baker)
5. Carol (Todd Haynes)
6. Spotlight (Tom McCarthy)
7. Star Wars: The Force Awakens (JJ Abrams)
8. A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night (Ana Lily Amirpour)
9. The Salt of the Earth (Wim Wenders, Juliano Ribeiro Salgado)
10. The Tribe (Miroslav Slaboshpitsky)

DIRECTOR 
Andrew Haigh (45 Years)

WRITER 
Aaron Sorkin (Steve Jobs)

ACTRESS
Charlotte Rampling (45 Years)

ACTOR
Alfredo Castro (From Afar, The Club)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Elizabeth Banks (Love & Mercy, Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL, Mockingjay Part 2)

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Oscar Isaac (Ex Machina, Star Wars: The Force Awakens)

WORST FILMS

1. Absolutely Anything (Terry Jones)
2. Unfinished Business (Ken Scott)
3. Pixels (Chris Columbus)
4. The Gallows (Travis Cluff, Chris Lofing)
5. Accidental Love (Stephen Greene)
6. The Cobbler (Tom McCarthy)
7. Ratter (Branden Kramer)
8. The Visit (M Night Shyamalan)
9. The Scorch Trials (Wes Ball)
10. Buttercup Bill (Emilie Richard-Froozan, Remy Bennett)

LFF 12: Sail away

The 59th London Film Festival came to an end this evening with the gala screening of Steve Jobs. But before that, Athina Rachel Tsangari's Chevalier (above) walked off with the award for best film. Annoyingly that was one of the films on my need-to-see list that I didn't manage to see (it's impossible to see everything).

Once again, the LFF proved itself a rather harsh atmosphere for the press - unlike most festivals in the world, we have to pay dearly for our accreditation, and there are no parties, no freebies, just lots of great movies, usually showing five at a time so you have to choose carefully what you see. It's pretty exhausting, but the programme is an excellent compendium of the year's top festivals, so it's a great way to catch up. Here are the prize winners, my favourites, and a couple more highlights...

LFF AWARDS 2015:

Best Film: CLEVALIER
Doc (Grierson Award): SHERPA
First Feature (Sutherland Award): THE WITCH
BFI Fellowship: Cate Blanchett
BFI Ambassador: Tom Hiddleston

MY BEST OF THE FEST:

1. CAROL
2. ROOM
3. VICTORIA
4. TANGERINE
5. STEVE JOBS
6. TAXI TEHRAN
7. TRUMBO
8. OUR LITTLE SISTER
9. THE CLUB
10. A BIGGER SPLASH

Special mention: FROM AFAR. THE LOBSTER. THE ENDLESS RIVER. TRUMAN. QUEEN OF EARTH. SUFFRAGETTE. GRANDMA. THE FORBIDDEN ROOM. HE NAMED ME MALALA. YOUTH.

Steve Jobs
dir Danny Boyle; with Michael Fassbender, Kate Winslet 15/US ****.
Whether this film is an accurate portrait of the eponymous Apple founder is frankly irrelevant. This is a storming example of the power of cinema to tell a story with complexity and invention. Every element works together to carry the audience through the narrative using just three key scenes that would actually play well on-stage. But the way it's shot and edited adds layers of depth... MORE >

Goosebumps
dir Rob Letterman; with Jack Black, Dylan Minnette 15/US ***
Like Jumanji on steroids, this action-horror romp packs the screen with animated mayhem swirling around an established comedian and a cast of plucky kids. The breathless pace holds the attention, boosted by surprisingly sophisticated gags peppered all the way through. But while working overtime to keep the audience entertained, it undermines every serious point it pretends to make... MORE >

LFF 5: Enjoy the high-life

Sienna Miller, Tom Hiddleston and Elisabeth Moss were on the red carpet last night at the London Film Festival for the opening of their new film High-Rise. Yes, the parade of filmmakers and stars continues at a fairly brisk clip. As always at the LFF, there are two events going on here: a festive party for VIPs and an intensive film season for everyone else, including the press. This is my 18th year covering the festival, and I have still never been invited to an official LFF party. For me it's about the films, and here are some more highlights...

Room
dir Lenny Abrahamson; with Brie Larson, Jacob Tremblay 15/Ire *****
With goosebump-inducing skill, Lenny Abrahamson and novelist-turned-screenwriter Emma Donoghue dig deep beneath a notorious global headline. In the process they tell a story that actually changes the way we see the news. And the use of a young child's perspective gives it undeniable power, especially since every scene is so inventively directed and played


Black Mass
dir Scott Cooper; with Johnny Depp, Joel Edgerton 15/US ***
Gritty and muscular, this is the true story of James "Whitey" Bulger played as a rather standard FBI/mob thriller. It's sharply well-made, capturing a strong sense of the period, but nothing about the film sets it apart from the pack. Without an original angle, it feels like the same story of criminal ambition, betrayal and violence that we've seen countless times before... MORE >

Queen of Earth
dir Alex Ross Perry; with Elisabeth Moss, Katherine Waterston 15/US ****
After Listen Up Philip, Perry continues his wilfully arty approach to filmmaking with this florid drama how lifelong friendships flip and slip. Using complex editing and sound, plus a B-movie vibe that indulges in lingering emotive closeups, this observant, expressive film cleverly mixes raw feelings with brittle black humour... MORE >

The Assassin 
dir Hou Hsiao-Hsien; with Qi Shu, Chen Chang 15/Chn **.
Exquisitely crafted, this film features sumptuous cinematography, costumes and settings. So it's very frustrating that the story is so poorly told. While the basic outline of the plot becomes clear eventually, there's virtually no development to the characters, while the connections between them remain maddeningly vague. And the talky dialog is simply impenetrable, never conveying much meaning about the culture or situation.

Listen to Me Marlon
dir Stevan Riley; with Marlon Brando, Stella Adler 15/UK **** 
Expertly edited together from archival footage and never-released private material, this documentary offers a startlingly intimate look into the mind of an iconic actor. Marlon Brando reveals himself to be a fascinating character full of wit, passion and artistic insight. And defiantly unlike his public image.

Live From New York! 
dir Bao Nguyen; with Lorne Michaels, Chevy Chase 15/US ***.
This documentary explores a show that has reflected and influenced American culture for more 40 years. The film takes a serious look at an iconically hilarious programme that's well-known for its political parody and brightly talented cast. It's a surprisingly balanced, in-depth documentary, although it's likely that only fans of the show will enjoy it.