Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: it's the 90th Academy Awards, and it seems as predictable as always. Hopefully they'll throw some surprises in on Sunday night. So even though I rarely get many of these right, here are my votes, who I think will win and who might sneak in and take home the prize. I'm always hoping for an upset...

BEST PICTURE
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will / should win: A Fantastic Woman
Could win: The Insult
Dark horse: Loveless

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Coco
Dark horse: The Breadwinner

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will / should win: Faces Places
Could win: Strong Island

DIRECTING
Will win: The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro
Should / could win: Dunkirk - Christopher Nolan

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Call Me by Your Name - James Ivory
Could win: Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
Dark horse: Mudbound - Virgil Williams, Dee Rees

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Three Billboards - Martin McDonagh
Could win: Get Out - Jordan Peele
Dark horse: Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Could win: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Should win: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Could win: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Could win: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Shape of Water - Alexandre Desplat
Should win: Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: This Is Me - The Greatest Showman
Should win: Remember Me - Coco

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Blade Runner 2049 - Roger A Deakins
Should win: Dunkirk - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING
Will win: Baby Driver - Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos
Should win: Dunkirk - Lee Smith
Dark horse: I, Tonya - Tatiana S Riegel

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Phantom Thread

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark horse: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Darkest Hour

SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk
Could win: Blade Runner 2049

LFF: Have a chat on Day 7

OK, this is the point in a film festival when a critic's brain begins to turn to mush, unable to remember what he saw today, let alone what's in the diary for tomorrow. I'm sure the 61st London Film Festival is a starry parade of red carpet premieres and glamorous parties somewhere, but for me it's an endless stream of press screenings. Well, I shouldn't complain too much, today there were two receptions involving free wine and canapes. So at least I'm feeling fed and watered. Some more highlights...

The Party
dir-scr Sally Potter; with Kristin Scott Thomas, Patricia Clarkson 17/UK ****
A pitch-black comedy packed with equal measures of awkward irony and brittle tragedy, Sally Potter's offbeat film is like a stage play filmed for the big screen. Photographed in black and white with expressionistic lighting and editing that makes it feel almost like a feature-length Twilight Zone episode, it's a rampaging trawl through politics and social connections. It's also deceptively light, but carries a piercing sting... FULL REVIEW >

The Shape of Water 
dir Guillermo del Toro; with Sally Hawkins, Richard Jenkins 17/US ****
Guillermo del Toro lets his imagination run wild with this engaging and also rather dark romantic adventure. It's a riot of clever production design, witty dialog and heartfelt emotion that carries the audience on a journey along with the vivid characters. The whimsical family-movie tone sits a bit oddly alongside the film's resolutely adult-oriented touches, but for grown-ups this is a fairy tale full of wonder... FULL REVIEW >

6 Days
dir Toa Fraser; with Mark Strong, Jamie Bell 17/UK ***
Muscular direction and an insistent tone maintain a sense of urgency all the way through this fact-based account of a terrorist siege. The quality of the production is very high indeed, although the somewhat on-the-nose screenplay and a pulsing musical score leave this feeling more like a quickly produced TV movie than something 35 years in the works. Still, it's a fascinating account that builds to a superbly staged finale... FULL REVIEW >

Foxtrot
dir-scr Samuel Maoz; with Lior Ashkenazi, Sarah Adler 17/Isr ****
Israeli filmmaker Samuel Maoz takes an audacious journey into grief and guilt in a drama that's made unsettling by the inclusion of sardonic wit, surrealism and dark irony. With characters who are strikingly well-played, travelling through this gorgeously photographed narrative is like taking an epic voyage into the neglected corners of your soul... FULL REVIEW >

I Am Not a Witch
dir-scr Rungano Nyoni; with Margaret Mulubwa, Henry BJ Phiri 17/UK ****
A fascinating mix of allegory and satire, this offbeat tale from rural Zambia is packed with wonderful characters and surreal touches. It's a story about a group of women who are marginalised as witches and treated with voyeuristic reverence. With her feature debut, writer-director Rungano Nyoni has created a marvellous movie that might not always be easy to watch, but it sparks with artistry and originality.

The Wound [Inxeba]
dir John Trengove; with Nakhane Toure, Bongile Mantsai 17/SA ****
A finely observed drama from South Africa, produced with sometimes startling honesty as it depicts ukwaluka, the Xhosa rite of passage into manhood. The film is a bracing depiction of a tribal tradition in modern times, packed with vivid characters who are grappling with a range of big questions. What emerges is a striking depiction of masculinity that transcends cultures.

Venezia74: Celebrations on Day 11

The 74th Venice Film Festival came to a close tonight with a starry awards ceremony at which Guillermo del Toro unsurprisingly took the top prize for his superb The Shape of Water. Earlier in the day I spent a couple of hours out in the sunshine and then caught my final film of the festival (see below). Here the winners in the bigger categories and sections, as well as my 10 favourite films of the festival...

Golden Lion: THE SHAPE OF WATER
Grand Jury Prize: FOXTROT
Director: Xavier Legrand (CUSTODY)
Actress: Charlotte Rampling (HANNAH)
Actor: Kamel El Basha (THE INSULT)    
Screenplay: Martin McDonagh (THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI)
Special Jury Prize: SWEET COUNTRY
Mastroianni Award: Charlie Plummer (LEAN ON PETE)
Lion of the Future: Xavier Legrand (CUSTODY)
Glory to the Filmmaker: Stephen Frears
Lifetime Achievement: Jane Fonda and Robert Redford

Horizons
Film: NICO, 1988
Director: Vahid Jalilvand (NO DATE, NO SIGNATURE)
Jury Prize: CANIBA
Actress: Lyna Khoudri (LES BIENHEUREUX)
Actor: Navid Mohammadzadeh (NO DATE, NO SIGNATURE)
Scr: Dominique Welinski and Rene Ballesteros (LOS VERSOS DEL OLVIDO)

Venice Days
People's Choice: LONGING
Director: Jhonny Hendrix Hinestroza (CANDELARIA)

Critics' Week
Film: TEAM HURRICANE
Audience Award: TEMPORADA DE CAZA

Queer Lion: MARVIN
Fipresci: EX LIBRIS: THE NEW YORK PUBLIC LIBRARY
Fipresci - Debut Film: Kim Nguyen (LOS VERSOS DEL OLVIDO)
Fedeora - Film: EYE ON JULIET
Fedeora - Debut Dir: Sara Forestier (M)
Fedeora - Actor: Redouanne Harjane (M)
Doc on Cinema: THE PRINCE AND THE DYBBUK
Mouse d’Oro: MEKTOUB, MY LOVE: CANTO UNO
Leoncino d’Oro: THE LEISURE SEEKER

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RICH'S 10 BEST OF THE FEST

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Lean on Pete
3. M
4. Custody
5. The Third Murder
6. Suburbicon
7. The Shape of Water
8. Love and Bullets
9. Nico, 1988
10. Brawl in Cell Block 99

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M
dir-scr Sara Forestier; with Sara Forestier, Redouanne Harjane 17/Fr ****.
An unusually involving and offbeat romance, this is a remarkably assured writing-directing debut for actress Sara Forestier. With a clever premise, the film brings two marginalised people together, forcing them to address personal issues they would rather hide from the world. Forestier packs the film with little unexpected details about these characters, both of whom are so beautifully played that we can't help but root for them as we vividly identify with their longing and frustration as well as their joy.

I'll be straight back into screenings in London starting on Monday, and this coming week includes Borg vs McEnroe, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, The Glass Castle and Brakes.

Venezia74: Come swim with me on Day 2

It's hot and sticky in Venice at the moment, and the forecast is for thunderstorms over the next few days. Still hot and sticky, but extra wet. And hopefully not flu-inducing as I dart in and out of air conditioned screening rooms. Here's what I saw on Thursday...

The Shape of Water
dir Guillermo del Toro; with Sally Hawkins, Richard Jenkins 17/US ****
Guillermo del Toro lets his imagination run wild with this engaging and also rather dark romantic adventure. It's a riot of clever production design, witty dialog and heartfelt emotion that carries the audience on a journey along with the vivid characters. The whimsical family-movie tone sits a bit oddly alongside the film's resolutely adult-oriented touches, but for grown-ups this is a fairy tale full of wonder.

Zama
dir-scr Lucrecia Martel; with Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Lola Duenas 17/Arg **.
This is a fairly difficult movie even by the standards of adventurous Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. An existential odyssey based on the 1956 novel by Antonio Di Benedetto, it simply refuses to coalesce into any kind of sensible narrative as the title character's life becomes a swirling nightmare of bureaucracy and cross-cultural messiness. And that's actually the point. At least it's fascinating, beautifully shot and acted, and packed with witty satire.

The Insult
dir Ziad Doueiri; with Adel Karam, Kamel El Basha 17/Leb ***
A terrific personal Lebanese drama is somewhat swamped by much bigger issues, as filmmaker Ziad Doueiri floods the story with the complexities of the nation's history and politics. Everything in this film is important, but when they're all overlaid on top of a courtroom drama, it tips the balance away from the more resonant story of two men having a face-off over a deeply personal clash.

Human Flow
dir Ai Weiwei; with Ai Weiwei, Boris Cheshirkov 17/Ger ***.
At an epic two and a half hours, this documentary is a little exhausting to sit through. But the topic is hugely compelling for anyone who feels compassion about other people. It's a film about refugees, and Chinese artist Ai Weiwei cleverly uses a variety of cameras to visit camps around the world, capturing both the individual impact in specific stories and the global scale as millions are displaced around the world. Even without using voiceover narration, the amount of information in here is astonishing.

> Tomorrow's screening schedule includes Jane Fonda and Robert Redford in Our Souls at Night, Vince Vaughn in Brawl in Cell Block 99, Andrew Haigh's Lean on Pete and Samuel Maoz's Foxtrot.