Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

Here we go again: it's the 90th Academy Awards, and it seems as predictable as always. Hopefully they'll throw some surprises in on Sunday night. So even though I rarely get many of these right, here are my votes, who I think will win and who might sneak in and take home the prize. I'm always hoping for an upset...

BEST PICTURE
Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Could win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Will / should win: A Fantastic Woman
Could win: The Insult
Dark horse: Loveless

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Coco
Dark horse: The Breadwinner

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will / should win: Faces Places
Could win: Strong Island

DIRECTING
Will win: The Shape of Water - Guillermo del Toro
Should / could win: Dunkirk - Christopher Nolan

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Call Me by Your Name - James Ivory
Could win: Molly's Game - Aaron Sorkin
Dark horse: Mudbound - Virgil Williams, Dee Rees

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Three Billboards - Martin McDonagh
Could win: Get Out - Jordan Peele
Dark horse: Lady Bird - Greta Gerwig

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will / should win: Frances McDormand - Three Billboards
Could win: Sally Hawkins - The Shape of Water
Dark horse: Saoirse Ronan - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour
Should win: Timothee Chalamet - Call Me by Your Name

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Allison Janney - I, Tonya
Could win: Laurie Metcalf - Lady Bird

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Sam Rockwell - Three Billboards
Could win: Willem Dafoe - The Florida Project

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: The Shape of Water - Alexandre Desplat
Should win: Phantom Thread - Jonny Greenwood

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: This Is Me - The Greatest Showman
Should win: Remember Me - Coco

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: Blade Runner 2049 - Roger A Deakins
Should win: Dunkirk - Hoyte van Hoytema

FILM EDITING
Will win: Baby Driver - Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos
Should win: Dunkirk - Lee Smith
Dark horse: I, Tonya - Tatiana S Riegel

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will win: Blade Runner 2049
Should win: The Shape of Water

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Phantom Thread

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Blade Runner 2049
Dark horse: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will / should win: Darkest Hour

SOUND EDITING / SOUND MIXING
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk
Could win: Blade Runner 2049

LFF: Kick back on Day 12

Well, it's all over for another year, so I can start to get back to normal life now. Tonight's closing film is Martin McDonagh's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (that's Sam Rockwell above), with the usual red carpet premiere and gala party after. But for me it's been about the films, and there have been some great ones (plus a few duds). And as always, there is a long list of movies that I desperately wanted to see but couldn't fit into my schedule. Here are the winners of the festival's official juried awards, my 10 best films (including some I had seen previously), and a final collection of highlights...

BFI LONDON FILM FESTIVAL 2017 AWARDS

• Best Film: LOVELESS
• Doc (Grierson Award): KINGDOM OF US
• First Feature (Sutherland Award): THE WOUND
• BFI Fellowship: Paul Greengrass

MY BEST OF THE FEST 2017:

1. A FANTASTIC WOMAN
2. YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE
3. THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI
4. CALL ME BY YOUR NAME
5. 120 BEATS PER MINUTE
6. LOVELESS
7. LAST FLAG FLYING
8. LEAN ON PETE
9. THE FLORIDA PROJECT
10. CUSTODY

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
dir-scr Martin McDonagh; with Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson 17/US *****
Writer-director Martin McDonaugh is on blistering form with this fiendishly clever personal drama, which arrives masquerading as a funny, violent police thriller. With take-no-prisoners performances from the entire cast, particularly a storming Frances McDormand, the film tackles our angry world head-on with a surprisingly heartfelt plea for compassion. And it approaches the riveting story and pungent themes with remarkable honesty... FULL REVIEW >

Zama
dir-scr Lucrecia Martel; with Daniel Gimenez Cacho, Lola Duenas 17/Arg ***
This is a fairly difficult movie even by the standards of adventurous Argentine filmmaker Lucrecia Martel. An existential odyssey based on the 1956 novel by Antonio Di Benedetto, it simply refuses to coalesce into any kind of sensible narrative as the title character's life becomes a swirling nightmare of bureaucracy and cross-cultural messiness. And that's actually the point. At least it's fascinating, beautifully shot and acted, and packed with witty satire... FULL REVIEW >

The Prince of Nothingwood
dir Sonia Kronlund; with Salim Shaheen, Sonia Kronlund 17/Fr ****
A fly-on-the-wall look at prolific Afghan filmmaker Salim Shaheen, this documentary is both playful and chilling in the way it explores the life of a colourful man and a nation's momentous history. French-Swiss journalist Sonia Kronlund follows Shaheen into some rarely seen parts of Afghanistan, which he calls "Nothingwood" due to his no-budget filmmaking style. It's an entertaining and eye-opening film.

Antonio Lopez 1970: Sex Fashion & Disco
dir-scr James Crump; with Bill Cunningham, Jessica Lange 17/US 1h30 ****
A fast-paced, skilful portrait of an artist who isn't very well-known outside fashion circles, this film is infused with the sensuality of its 1970s period. Through lively, expressive interviews and a wealth of footage and stills, Antonio Lopez springs to life before our eyes, making us wish we had a chance to get to know him, because he seems like someone we'd probably fall in love with just like everyone else did.

Venezia74: Speak your mind on Day 6

I finally made it across the lagoon in the warm sunshine from the Lido to Venice today. (It took me this long last year as well!) After the two morning films, I jumped on the vaporetto, and then spent the afternoon roaming around one of my favourite places on earth, visiting a couple of museums (Damien Hirst's fabulous Treasures from the Wreck of the Unbelievable at Palazzo Grassi, and the glories of the Guggenheim Collection) and of course eating gelato. Then back over to Lido for two more movies at the 74th Venice Film Festival, so a rather full day...

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
dir-scr Martin McDonagh; with Frances McDormand, Woody Harrelson 17/US *****
Writer-director Martin McDonaugh is on blistering form with this fiendishly clever personal drama, which arrives masquerading as a funny, violent police thriller. With take-no-prisoners performances from the entire cast, particularly a storming Frances McDormand, the film tackles our angry world head-on with a surprisingly heartfelt plea for compassion. And it tackles the riveting story as well as a series of pungent themes with remarkable honesty.

The Third Murder
dir-scr Hirokazu Kore-eda; with Masaharu Fukuyama, Koji Yakusho 17/Jpn ****.
Expertly orchestrated by master filmmaker Hirokazu Kore-eda, this is on the surface a police procedural thriller. Except that it's actually a detailed exploration of a group of intertwined characters who may or may not be telling the truth. Which is kind of the point for what turns out to be a provocative look at the nature of justice in a world full of imperfect people. It's also the kind of movie that demands close attention from the audience.

A Family [Una Famiglia]
dir Sebastiano Riso; with Micaela Ramazzotti, Patrick Bruel 17/It 1h37 **
This may look like a gritty Italian drama that addresses a dark corner of Roman society, but nothing about it feels very believable. Despite some strong acting by the lead actors, the characters are impossible to sympathise with simply because their overpowering self-interest is so contrived. There are some intriguing comments about male-female dynamics and co-dependence, but any astute observations seem to emerge almost by accident.

My Generation
dir David Batty; with Michael Caine, Paul McCartney 17/UK 1h25 ***.
A groovy trip through swinging 1960s London, this colourful documentary explores the seismic shift in British society as working class artists teamed up to break the rules and become global stars in music, acting, art and fashion. Narrated by Michael Caine, its full of enjoyable personal anecdotes, terrific songs and lots of clips edited together into a swirling concoction. It may feel rather gimmicky, but it's packed with entertaining surprises.

Tomorrow we have the world premiere one of the most anticipated films of the festival: Darren Aronofsky's Mother! There's also Jim & Andy, about Jim Carrey and Andy Kaufman, and Loving Pablo, with Javier Bardem and Penelope Cruz.