Out on a Limb: Oscar picks & predictions

This has been considered one of the most volatile awards seasons in memory, as the buzz has been continually shifting around who might be in line to take home Oscars. There are a couple of sure things for the 98th Academy Awards on Sunday night, but the most important precursors -- Bafta, PGA, SAG -- didn't agree in many categories. Watching the ceremony, I always love an upset, so those will get my loudest cheers. Here's who I think will, should and could win [with winners in bold after the fact]...

PICTURE
Will/should win: Sinners
Could win: One Battle After Another

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Will win: Sentimental Value
Could win: It Was Just an Accident
Should win: Sirat
Dark horse: The Secret Agent

ANIMATED FEATURE
Will/should win: KPop Demon Hunters
Could win: Zootopia 2

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: The Perfect Neighbor
Could win: Mr Nobody Against Putin
Should Win: Come See Me in the Good Light
Dark horse: The Alabama Solution

ACTRESS
Will/should win: Jessie Buckley - Hamnet

ACTOR
Will/should win: Michael B Jordan - Sinners
Could win: Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme
Dark horses: Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon / Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will/should win: Amy Madigan - Weapons
Could win: Teyana Taylor - One Battle After Another 

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will win: Sean Penn - One Battle After Another 
Could win: Delroy Lindo - Sinners 
Should win: Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value  

DIRECTOR
Will win: Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
Could/should win: Ryan Coogler - Sinners

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will win: One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson
Could/should win: Hamnet - Chloe Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will/should win: Sinners - Ryan Coogler
Could win: Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt

CASTING
Will win: Sinners - Francine Maisler
Could/should win: The Secret Agent - Gabriel Domingues
[Winner: One Battle After Another - Cassandra Kulukundis]

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will win: Sinners - Ludwig Goransson
Could win: One Battle After Another - Jonny Greenwood
Should win: Hamnet - Max Richter

ORIGINAL SONG
Will/should win: Golden - KPop Demon Hunters - Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seo, Teddy Park

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will win: One Battle After Another - Michael Bauman
Should win: Sinners - Autumn Durald Arkapaw

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sinners - Michael Shawver
Could/should win: One Battle After Another - Andy Jurgensen

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will/should win: Frankenstein - Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau

COSTUME DESIGN
Will win: Frankenstein - Kate Hawley
Should win: Sinners - Ruth E Carter

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Frankenstein - Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, Cliona Furey
Should win: Kokuho - Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino, Tadashi Nishimatsu

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will/should win: Avatar: Fire and Ash - Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, Daniel Barrett

SOUND
Will win: Sinners - Chris Welcker, Benjamin A Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor, Steve Boeddeker
Could win: F1 - Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A Rizzo, Juan Peralta
Should win: Sirat - Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas, Yasmina Praderas

The Best of 2025: 45th Shadows Awards

As usual, here's a brief summary of my top 10 lists for the year, with much, much more on the 45th Shadows Awards page on the website. These are my favourites - and as usual, I always like to be surprised...

BEST FILMS: 

1. Sirāt (Oliver Laxe)
2. Sinners (Ryan Coogler)
3. Is This Thing On? (Bradley Cooper)
4. Hamnet (Chloé Zhao)
5. Cactus Pears (Rohan Parashuram Kanawade)
6. Good One (India Donaldson)
7. Sentimental Value (Joachim Trier)
8. Sorry, Baby (Eva Victor)
9. 2000 Meters to Andriivka (Mstyslav Chernov)
10. Wake Up Dead Man (Rian Johnson)

DIRECTOR:

1. Chloé Zhao - Hamnet
2. Ray Mendoza & Alex Garland - Warfare
3. Lynne Ramsay - Die My Love
4. Ryan Coogler - Sinners
5. India Donaldson - Good One
6. Oliver Laxe - Sirāt
7. Paul Thomas Anderson - One Battle After Another
8. Kelly Reichardt - The Mastermind
9. Mary Bronstein - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
10. Celine Song - Materialists

SCREENWRITER:

1. Ryan Coogler - Sinners
2. Eva Victor - Sorry, Baby
3. Rian Johnson - Wake Up Dead Man
4. Jafar Panahi - It Was Just an Accident
5. Harry Lighton - Pillion
6. India Donaldson - Good One
7. Rohan Parashuram Kanawade - Cactus Pears
8. Chloé Zhao & Maggie O'Farrell - Hamnet
9. Eskil Vogt & Joachim Trier - Sentimental Value
10. Kleber Mendonca Filho - The Secret Agent

ACTRESS: 

1. Jessie Buckley - Hamnet
2. Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value
3. Camila Plaate - Belén
4. Leonie Benesch - Late Shift
5. Jennifer Lawrence - Die My Love
6. Tessa Van den Broeck - Julie Keeps Quiet
7. Yasmine Al Massri - Palestine 36
8. Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue
9. Laura Dern - Is This Thing On, Jay Kelly
10. Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You

ACTOR: 

1. Théodore Pellerin - Lurker, Nino
2. Michael B Jordan - Sinners
3. Paul Mescal - The History of Sound, Hamnet
4. Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value
5. Mahmood Bakri - To a Land Unknown
6. Josh O'Connor - The Mastermind, Wake Up Dead Man, The History of Sound, Rebuilding
7. Ryo Yoshizawa - Kokuhō
8. Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
9. Will Poulter - Warfare, On Swift Horses
10. Sergi Lopez - Sirāt

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 

1. Nina Hoss - Hedda
2. Glenn Close - Wake Up Dead Man
3. Amy Madigan - Weapons, Rebuilding
4. Youn Yuh-jung - The Wedding Banquet
5. Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners
6. Fiona Shaw - Hot Milk, Park Avenue
7. Mariam Afshari - It Was Just an Accident
8. Naomi Ackie - Mickey 17, Sorry Baby, The Thursday Murder Club
9. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas - Sentimental Value
10. Maxine Peake - I Swear

SUPPORTING ACTOR: 

1. Miles Caton - Sinners
2. Kit Connor - Warfare
3. Tonatiuh - Kiss of the Spider Woman
4. Alexander Skarsgard - Pillion
5. Min Tanaka - Kokuhō
6. Noah Jupe - Hamnet, The Carpenter's Son
7. Jay Lycurgo - Steve
8. Ken Watanabe - Kokuhō
9. Jack O'Connell - Sinners, 28 Years Later
10. Archie Madekwe - Lurker

WORST FILM: 

1. A Working Man (David Ayer)
2. The Home (James DeMonaco)
3. Star Trek: Section 31 (Olatunde Osunsanmi)
4. Him (Justin Tipping)
5. Night of Violence (Illya Konstantin)
6. The Electric State (Joe & Anthony Russo)
7. Bull Run (Alfredo Barrios Jr)
8. The Pickup (Tim Story)
9. The Ice Tower (Lucile Hadzihalilovic)
10. Harvest (Athina Rachel Tsangari)

TV SERIES: 

1. Adolescence (Netflix)
2. Hacks 4 (Max)
3. The White Lotus 3 (HBO)
4. Chief of War (Apple)
5. Boots (Netflix)
6. Juice 2 (BBC)
7. Only Murders in the Building 5 (Hulu)
8. Too Much (Netflix)
9. Andor 2 (Disney)
10. Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light (BBC)

SINGLE: 

1. Golden - Huntr/x
2. DtMF - Bad Bunny
3. Where Is My Husband - Raye
4. Undressed - Sombr
5. Manchild - Sabrina Carpenter
6. Daisy, When the Wine Runs Out - Role Model
7. The Giver - Chappell Roan
8. Rubber Band Man - Mumford and Sons & Hozier
9. I Lied to You - Miles Caton
10. Show Me Love - WizTheMc, Bees & Honey