Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I've never been particularly good at guessing how Oscar voters will cast their ballots, but I have to give it a go each year anyway. And I've seen all of the films, so at least I'm qualified, eh? That said, here are who I think will win, who I want to win and who could possible upset the field. As usual, I will be hoping for lots of upsets and surprises. There's nothing worse than a predicable Academy Awards ceremony. And thankfully, this year's strangely over-extended awards season and offbeat releasing schedules make it one of the least predictable line-ups in years...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Nomadland
Dark horse: Minari

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: Another Round
Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida?

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Soul
Dark horse: WolfWalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Should win: Collective
Dark horse: Crip Camp

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Dark horse: Minari - Lee Isaac Chung

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Father - Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Should win: Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Dark horse: Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Should win: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Dark horse: Anthony Hopkins - The Father

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Should win: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Dark horse: Amanda Seyfried - Mank

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Dark horse: Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami - Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
Should win: Husavik,  Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Goransson
Dark horse: Io Si (Seen), The Life Ahead - Diane Warren, Laura Pausini

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Joshua James Richards

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sound of Metal - Mikkel EG Nielsen
Should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Mank -  Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson
Should win: Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

SOUND
Will / should win: Sound Of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, Phillip Bladh

Critical Week: Dancing in the aisles

Being awards season, there are quite a few screenings that include a Q&A with the cast and crew - all held virtually this year. I had three of these this past week: Promising Young Woman is a vicious, blackly comical thriller with a terrific Carey Mulligan (pictured above with Bo Burnham). It's sharply pointed and darkly entertaining. The Prom is a glittery musical concoction from Ryan Murphy starring Meryl Streep, Nicole Kidman, James Corden, Andrew Rannells and Kerry Washington, among others. It's over-the-top in many ways, but has nicely serious undercurrents. And Pieces of a Woman is a very dark drama starring Vanessa Kirby and Shia LaBeouf. It's involving and beautifully put together, but rather grim.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
Red, White and Blue
Nomadland • Ammonite
Falling • Black Bear • Host 
PERHAPS AVOID:
Buddy Games
Love, Weddings & Other Disasters 
FULL REVIEWS>

Otherwise it was the usual eclectic bunch. Drew Barrymore has both lead roles in The Stand In, a comedy that's not as silly as it looks, knowingly skewering show business myths. This week's Small Axe movie by Steve McQueen is the breathtaking Red, White and Blue, starring John Boyega as a young cop with a conscience. Viggo Mortensen writes, directs, stars in and composes the score for Falling, a pungent drama about a man dealing with his senile, increasingly bigoted father (a terrific Lance Henricksen). Parallel is a crowd-pleasing sci-fi concoction with a twisty plot and a hint of thematic depth, while Muscle is a gritty British drama that takes an unsettling dive into toxic masculinity. There was also Jack and the Beanstalk, a deliciously hilarious traditional British panto shot in back gardens during the pandemic. And The American Boys is a collection of six sensitive coming-of-age shorts, all very well made.

I have a lot to watch over the coming week, including the final two Small Axe films Alex Wheatle and Education, Riz Ahmed in Sound of Metal, Tessa Thompson in Sylvie's Love, Sienna Miller in Wander Darkly, Laura Dern in Trial by Fire, and acclaimed foreign titles Funny Boy, The Weasel's Tale and Cocoon. I also have an actual physical catch-up screening of the British horror Saint Maud. Yes, cinemas are open again, again.