Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I've never been particularly good at guessing how Oscar voters will cast their ballots, but I have to give it a go each year anyway. And I've seen all of the films, so at least I'm qualified, eh? That said, here are who I think will win, who I want to win and who could possible upset the field. As usual, I will be hoping for lots of upsets and surprises. There's nothing worse than a predicable Academy Awards ceremony. And thankfully, this year's strangely over-extended awards season and offbeat releasing schedules make it one of the least predictable line-ups in years...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Nomadland
Dark horse: Minari

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: Another Round
Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida?

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Soul
Dark horse: WolfWalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Should win: Collective
Dark horse: Crip Camp

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Dark horse: Minari - Lee Isaac Chung

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Father - Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Should win: Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Dark horse: Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Should win: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Dark horse: Anthony Hopkins - The Father

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Should win: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Dark horse: Amanda Seyfried - Mank

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Dark horse: Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami - Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
Should win: Husavik,  Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Goransson
Dark horse: Io Si (Seen), The Life Ahead - Diane Warren, Laura Pausini

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Joshua James Richards

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sound of Metal - Mikkel EG Nielsen
Should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Mank -  Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson
Should win: Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

SOUND
Will / should win: Sound Of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, Phillip Bladh

Critical Week: Stay classy

Over halfway through our month-long Lockdown 2.0, it's clear that everyone is seriously bored with all of this now, longing for a reopening of cinemas, restaurants, pubs, theatres and everything really in time for Christmas. Meanwhile I've had three days and counting without internet, thanks to Virgin Media's astonishing inability to solve whatever the problem is in my neighbourhood. This means that I've had to use my phone's 4G to watch movies this week. And the films were a mixed bag. Ron Howard's new movie Hillbilly Elegy, which stars Glenn Close and Amy Adams. It's watchable but too simplistic to have any kind of kick. David Fincher's biopic Mank, starring Gary Oldman as the screenwriter of Citizen Kane, has equally great performances (especially from Amanda Seyfried as Marion Davies), and much more visual panache, although Fincher's perfectionism drains the story of passion.

BEST OUT THIS WEEK: 

Lovers Rock • Another Round

Mosul • Happiest Season

Possessor

PERHAPS AVOID:

Hillbilly Elegy • Buddy Games

The Ringmaster

FULL REVIEWS >

And then there's the messy romantic comedy Love, Weddings & Other Disasters, a frothy, corny multi-strand affair starring Diane Keaton and Jeremy Irons. Jungleland stars the superb Charlie Hunnam and Jack O'Connell as brothers on a road trip with the always excellent Jessica Barden, but the film is too hushed to come to life. Lost at Christmas is an awkward little holiday rom-com from Scotland, with just about enough charm to win us over. Host is a refreshingly original British horror movie set entirely on a Zoom screen, and it's skilfully terrifying. And The Ringmaster is a sickeningly derivative Danish horror movie that's uber-grisly but not very scary.

There were also two docs: Zappa uses extensive archival material to trace the iconic musician's career, while Markie in Milwaukee is about a 7-foot deeply religious trans woman who decides to live as a man again, then has to face her true nature. I also caught Kevin Hart's new stand-up show, Zero F**ks Given, which has a nicely intimate feel in his house, including some very personal jokes. And then there was The Lego Star Wars Holiday Special, a giddy bit of Christmas fluff that felt like just what I needed.

This coming week I'll catch up with Red, White and Blue, the third film in Steve McQueen's Small Axe series, as well as the all-star musical The Prom, Viggo Mortensen's Falling, Diane Lane in Let Him Go, Drew Barrymore in The Stand-In, Margot Robbie in Dreamland, the psychological thriller Muscle and the shorts collection The American Boys.