Out on a limb: Oscar picks & predictions

I've never been particularly good at guessing how Oscar voters will cast their ballots, but I have to give it a go each year anyway. And I've seen all of the films, so at least I'm qualified, eh? That said, here are who I think will win, who I want to win and who could possible upset the field. As usual, I will be hoping for lots of upsets and surprises. There's nothing worse than a predicable Academy Awards ceremony. And thankfully, this year's strangely over-extended awards season and offbeat releasing schedules make it one of the least predictable line-ups in years...

PICTURE
Will / should win: Nomadland
Dark horse: Minari

INTERNATIONAL FILM
Will win: Another Round
Should win: Quo Vadis, Aida?

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Will / should win: Soul
Dark horse: WolfWalkers

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Will win: My Octopus Teacher
Should win: Collective
Dark horse: Crip Camp

DIRECTING
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Promising Young Woman - Emerald Fennell
Dark horse: Minari - Lee Isaac Chung

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Father - Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Carey Mulligan - Promising Young Woman
Should win: Frances McDormand - Nomadland
Dark horse: Viola Davis - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Will win: Riz Ahmed - Sound of Metal
Should win: Chadwick Boseman - Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Dark horse: Anthony Hopkins - The Father

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn - Minari
Should win: Maria Bakalova - Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Dark horse: Amanda Seyfried - Mank

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Will / should win: Daniel Kaluuya - Judas and the Black Messiah
Dark horse: Paul Raci - Sound of Metal

ORIGINAL SCORE
Will / should win: Soul - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste

ORIGINAL SONG
Will win: Speak Now, One Night in Miami - Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
Should win: Husavik,  Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga - Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus, Rickard Goransson
Dark horse: Io Si (Seen), The Life Ahead - Diane Warren, Laura Pausini

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Will / should win: Nomadland - Joshua James Richards

FILM EDITING
Will win: Sound of Metal - Mikkel EG Nielsen
Should win: Nomadland - Chloe Zhao
Dark horse: The Trial of the Chicago 7 - Alan Baumgarten

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Will / should win: Mank -  Donald Graham Burt, Jan Pascale

COSTUME DESIGN
Will / should win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Ann Roth

VISUAL EFFECTS
Will / should win: Tenet - Andrew Jackson, David Lee, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Will win: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom - Sergio Lopez-Rivera, Mia Neal, Jamika Wilson
Should win: Pinocchio - Mark Coulier, Dalia Colli, Francesco Pegoretti

SOUND
Will / should win: Sound Of Metal - Nicolas Becker, Jaime Baksht, Michelle Couttolenc, Carlos Cortes, Phillip Bladh

Critical Week: Is it raining?

Happy New Year from now-outside-the-EU London! Days have been blurring together over as I watch movies, go for walks and eat, and not a lot else. I'm still catching up on awards-season titles as voting deadlines approach. It's a tricky business, deciding which ones are worth the time and which can perhaps be skipped. As a critic, I hate not to give everyone a fair shake, but I do have to set priorities. Among the ones I watched were the quirky Irish romantic-comedy Wild Mountain Thyme, with Emily Blunt, Jamie Dornan and Christopher Walken. Odd casting aside, it's warm and funny. Anthony Hopkins and Olivia Colman are on top form in the sharply well-made drama The Father, based on a stage play. 

BEST OUT THIS WEEK:
We Can Be Heroes • DNA
Pieces of a Woman 
PERHAPS AVOID:
The Blackout 
ALL REVIEWS >

There was also Michelle Pfeiffer, terrific alongside the always-watchable Lucas Hedges in the black comedy French Exit. An all-star cast including Dan Stevens, Leslie Mann, Isla Fisher and Judi Dench star in an entertaining if not particularly needed remake of Noel Coward's nutty comedy Blythe Spirit. Jack O'Connell and Olivia Cooke star in the swirling, sensual, sad romance Little Fish. And Kelly Reichardt's First Cow is one of the best bromances in recent memory, following two men in 19th century Oregon.

Much less demanding, Robert Rodriguez's colourful kids' superhero movie We Can Be Heroes is an energetic guilty pleasure. And then there was this eclectic trio: Savage is a gritty, violent story of gang life in New Zealand; DNA is a heartfelt French film looking into a woman's Algerian roots; and from Russia, The Blackout: Invasion Earth is an ambitious alien-attack epic that's messy but still spectacular. Finally, I caught up with two awards-worthy docs: an inventive exploration of grief and mortality in Dick Johnson Is Dead and a powerful look at disability rights history in Crip Camp.

I'm still catching up on contenders over the next week, as both the London and Online critics groups are casting nominations ballots next week. And I also need to watch a few films that are coming out over the next few weeks. It's a mixed bag that I haven't quite defined yet.